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Radnik SurdulicaRadnicki Nis

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 15:0016 Oct, 15:00

14Probabilities3Priced3Edges86%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 22:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Radnik Surdulica, unbeaten at home in the league, face a Radnički Niš side stuck in the relegation zone with their coaching situation unresolved.

The home side should have the better of it, but the 2.05 on a Radnik win offers no edge given how often they draw, and Under 2.5 at 1.8 is no better either. The one price that offers anything is at least one team failing to score, at 1.91.

Context

Radnički Niš arrive with an unresolved coaching change, sit in the relegation zone and have scored twice in six away league games, while Radnik Surdulica are unbeaten in six home league matches and have drawn five of eleven overall.

Radnički Niš dismissed Marko Neđić after a 1-4 home defeat by Vojvodina on 11 October, a result that left the club in the relegation zone and produced the sixth coaching change of the Super Liga season. The leading candidate to replace him, Nenad Lalatović, instead took over at Novi Pazar, so Niš reach Surdulica without a settled permanent coach. A change this close to a fixture can reset the starting XI and the defensive shape. The counterweight is that no new staff has had a competitive match to assess the squad, and the eventual appointment is still not established.
- Marko Neđić left Radnički Niš after 17 matches and about six months, with the team in the relegation zone.
- The change followed a 1-4 home defeat to Vojvodina on 11 October.
- Radnički Niš were one of three Super Liga clubs to change coach after round 11.
- Nenad Lalatović, the leading candidate in Niš, instead took charge at Novi Pazar in mid-October.
ReportedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 22:42 · Europe/Bucharest
Radnik have scored 11 and conceded 7 across those six home league games, an average of 1.83 goals for and 1.17 against. That makes Surdulica a difficult trip, and the visitors have scored only twice on the road. The counterpoint is that three of the six home games ended level, so unbeaten has not always meant winning.
- Radnik Surdulica home league record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses in 6 matches.
- They scored 11 and conceded 7 in those six home league games, averaging 1.83 goals for and 1.17 against.
Their away record reads one win, one draw and four defeats, with an average of 0.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per away league game. That away return is the main reason the visitors are expected to struggle for goals in Surdulica. They did score three at home to OFK Beograd on 13 September, a reminder that the problem is specifically on the road.
- Radnički Niš away league record: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses in 6 matches, with 2 goals scored.
- Their away league matches average 0.33 goals for and 1.17 against.
The teams' most recent meeting, in Surdulica, finished 2-2 after Radnički Niš went 2-0 up through Aleksandr Shestyuk's 39th-minute penalty and Franck Kanouté's 50th-minute goal. Martin Novaković scored twice for Radnik, equalising from the penalty spot on 81 minutes, and Kanouté was sent off in stoppage time. It is the clearest recent reference point for how the sides match up. The match predates this season, however, so neither the goalscorers' availability nor the current line-ups are bound by it.
- Radnički Niš led 2-0 in Surdulica through a 39th-minute Aleksandr Shestyuk penalty and a 50th-minute Franck Kanouté goal.
- Martin Novaković pulled a goal back on 71 minutes and equalised from the spot on 81 minutes.
- Kanouté was sent off for a second yellow card in stoppage time.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 22:42 · Europe/Bucharestkicker.dewww.kicker.de · 25 Apr 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.80fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 55.6%

−2.6ppshort

Nis have very little away scoring, which caps the likely number of goals.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Radnik Surdulica

2.05fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 48.8%

−3.8ppshort

Radnik are unbeaten at home this season while Nis have won once on the road and scored only twice away.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 86%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Radnik are unbeaten at home this season while Nis have won once on the road and scored only twice away.
- Radnik home league record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses in 6 games (11 goals for, 7 against).
- Radnicki Nis away league record: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses in 6 games, 2 goals scored.
- Radnicki Nis sit 13th and in the relegation zone after a 1-4 home loss to Vojvodina.
- Radnik are 7th on 14 points with a home record of 11 goals in 6 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerRadnik SurdulicaMarket price2.05Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side scores heavily before the break, so a level half-time is the single most likely state.
- Radnik average 0.75 first-half goals overall.
- Nis average 0.27 first-half goals scored overall.
- Radnik led at half-time in some home games but not all.
- Nis conceded 0.67 first-half goals per away league game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nis score very rarely after the break and Radnik's own second-half output is modest.
- Radnik average 0.5 second-half goals per home league game.
- Nis average 0.17 second-half goals per away league game.
- Radnik concede 1.0 second-half goals per home league game.
- Nis have scored only 3 goals in 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radnik are unbeaten at home this season while Nis have won once on the road and scored only twice away. Both clubs draw often and the last meeting here ended level after Radnik came back from two down.
- Radnik home league record: 3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses in 6 games (11 goals for, 7 against).
- Radnicki Nis away league record: 1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses in 6 games, 2 goals scored.
- Radnik have drawn 5 of their 11 league matches.
- Radnicki Nis have drawn 2 of 10 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChanceRadnik Surdulica or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radnik score early at home while Nis rarely lead at the break away from home. Neither side scores heavily before the break, so a level half-time is the single most likely state.
- Radnik average 1.33 first-half goals in home league games.
- Radnik concede 0.17 first-half goals per home league game.
- Radnik average 0.75 first-half goals overall.
- Nis average 0.27 first-half goals scored overall.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfRadnik Surdulica or DrawEstimated chance86%

Goals5 outcomes · top 82%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Nis have very little away scoring, which caps the likely number of goals.
- Nis have scored 2 goals in 6 away league matches.
- Radnik were held 0-0 at home by Crvena Zvezda.
- Nis average 0.82 goals scored per league match overall.
- Radnik average 1.17 goals scored per league match overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price1.80Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Nis's away scoring is low enough that at least one team may not score.
- Nis have scored 2 goals in 6 away league matches.
- Radnik kept 3 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
- Nis kept 2 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
- The last meeting at this ground finished 2-2.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.91Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Radnik have had home matches with few goals, including a 0-0.
- Radnik have scored 5 goals in one six-match home sample.
- Radnik were held 0-0 at home by Crvena Zvezda.
- Radnik average 1.17 goals per competitive match overall.
- Radnik's 11 home goals came across 6 games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalRadnik Surdulica under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nis have struggled badly for away goals, averaging one every three matches.
- Nis have scored 2 goals in 6 away league games.
- Nis average 0.33 goals per away league game.
- Nis scored once or zero times in the large majority of their away matches.
- Radnik kept 3 clean sheets in 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalRadnicki Nis under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Radnik have been scoring before the break at home and Nis concede early away.
- Radnik average 1.33 first-half goals per home league game.
- Nis average 0.17 first-half goals per away league game.
- Radnik conceded 0.17 first-half goals per home league game.
- Nis conceded 0.67 first-half goals per away league game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%

Match stats4 outcomes · top 63%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' relevant venue splits point to close to nine corners.
- Radnik home games average 8.8 total corners.
- Nis away games average 9.5 total corners.
- Radnik average 4.67 corners per home game.
- Nis average 5.33 corners per away game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combining both venue splits gives a total shot count just above the line.
- Radnik home games average 28.3 total shots.
- Nis away games average 30.3 total shots.
- Radnik average 15.3 shots per home game.
- Nis away matches average 16.3 shots against them.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 28.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both venue splits point to roughly ten shots on target.
- Radnik home games average 9.3 total shots on target.
- Nis away games average 10.3 total shots on target.
- Radnik average 5.0 shots on target per home game.
- Nis away matches average 5.8 shots on target against them.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' venue splits point to a total below seven cards.
- Radnik home games average 4.8 total yellow cards.
- Nis away games average 5.3 total yellow cards.
- Radnik average 2.9 yellow cards per competitive match.
- Nis average 3.2 yellow cards per competitive match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderUnder 6.5Estimated chance63%