San Antonio Ibarra39 de Octubre3

HT 1–1Thu 22 Oct 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 20:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Both sides have made draws their habit: San Antonio have seven home draws in 11 league matches, and 9 de Octubre have seven away draws with only three away goals.

The draw is the most likely single result, with under 2.5 goals the stronger low-scoring lean. Of the quoted prices, San Antonio at 4.33, both teams not to score at 1.62, San Antonio ahead at half-time at 5.25 and under 2.5 goals at 1.45 offer something; 9 de Octubre at 1.85 does not.

Context

The venue split in the head-to-head keeps this from being a simple repeat of September's 3-0.
9 de Octubre's 3-0 win is the main warning for San Antonio. At San Antonio, though, the last two meetings were 0-0 and 2-2, so the recent head-to-head points to a tighter game than that September scoreline.
- 9 de Octubre 3-0 San Antonio, 26 September 2026, Liga Pro Serie B.
- San Antonio 0-0 9 de Octubre, 20 August 2026, Liga Pro Serie B.
- San Antonio 2-2 9 de Octubre, 2 September 2025, Liga Pro Serie B.
The two splits mirror each other: San Antonio's home matches and 9 de Octubre's away matches are both draw-heavy.
San Antonio's league home split has four wins and seven draws from 11, with 16 goals for and nine against. 9 de Octubre's away split is two wins, seven draws and two defeats from 11, with only three goals scored. That symmetry supports a tight game, but 9 de Octubre's 3-0 home win over San Antonio in September shows their away split is not the whole team.
- League table through 22 October 2026: San Antonio home record 11 matches, 4 wins, 7 draws, 16 goals for, 9 against.
- League table through 22 October 2026: 9 de Octubre away record 11 matches, 2 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, 3 goals for, 3 against.
9 de Octubre's away matches have been slow starters in the source window.
Across eight away matches to 8 October 2026, 9 de Octubre have not scored before half-time and have conceded only two first-half goals. That makes a quiet opening plausible. The counterweight is the September meeting at 9 de Octubre, where they led San Antonio 2-0 at half-time.
- 9 de Octubre away split, 16 July to 8 October 2026: 8 matches, 0.0 first-half goals for per match and 0.25 first-half goals against per match.
San Antonio's most recent home match offers a direct first-half signal.
The 2-0 win over Deportivo Cuenca Juniors on 16 October 2026 had both goals before half-time. It is the freshest home evidence and gives the idea of a home half-time lead a recent reference point, but it is only one match rather than a pattern.
- San Antonio 2-0 Deportivo Cuenca Juniors, 16 October 2026: first half 2-0, second half 0-0.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The draw is the single most likely outcome because both sides draw often and 9 de Octubre's away games produce very few goals.
- Both teams have drawn heavily: San Antonio 7 home draws in 11, 9 de Octubre 7 away draws in 11.
- Three of the last five meetings ended level.
- 9 de Octubre have scored only 3 goals in 11 away league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first-half draw is the leading outcome because both sides' away and home first-half scoring rates are low.
- San Antonio's home first-half record is 0.5 goals for and 0.125 against per match.
- 9 de Octubre have not scored a first-half goal in eight away matches.
- The September meeting had a 2-0 first half to 9 de Octubre.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-half draw is the leading outcome because the expected second-half scoring is low even though San Antonio tend to concede late.
- San Antonio's home split shows 0.125 second-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- 9 de Octubre's away split shows 0.375 second-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- San Antonio have conceded six second-half goals in their last six matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio are hard to beat at home and 9 de Octubre rarely win on the road, so a home win is slightly less likely than the draw but clearly possible. The draw is the single most likely outcome because both sides draw often and 9 de Octubre's away games produce very few goals.
- San Antonio's league home record is 4 wins, 7 draws and 0 losses in 11 matches.
- 9 de Octubre's league away record is 2 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses with only 3 goals scored.
- Both teams have drawn heavily: San Antonio 7 home draws in 11, 9 de Octubre 7 away draws in 11.
- Three of the last five meetings ended level.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSan Antonio Ibarra or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A home half-time lead is the second most likely first-half result because San Antonio create a little more early at home while 9 de Octubre have not scored before half-time away. The first-half draw is the leading outcome because both sides' away and home first-half scoring rates are low.
- San Antonio average 0.5 first-half goals at home and concede 0.125.
- 9 de Octubre average 0.0 first-half goals in eight away matches.
- San Antonio's home first-half record is 0.5 goals for and 0.125 against per match.
- 9 de Octubre have not scored a first-half goal in eight away matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSan Antonio Ibarra or DrawEstimated chance87%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Under 2.5 is favoured because 9 de Octubre barely score away and San Antonio's home matches are low-scoring.
- 9 de Octubre have scored 3 goals in 11 away league matches.
- San Antonio's home split shows 0.625 goals for and 0.625 against per match.
- Three of the last five meetings had two or fewer goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
A clean sheet for at least one side is the stronger outcome because 9 de Octubre rarely score away and San Antonio's home games are tight.
- San Antonio kept five clean sheets in eight home matches in the source window.
- 9 de Octubre scored in only two of eight away matches in the source window.
- Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A goalless first half is slightly favoured because 9 de Octubre rarely score early away and San Antonio's home first halves are low-scoring.
- 9 de Octubre have not scored a first-half goal in eight away matches.
- San Antonio concede only 0.125 first-half goals per home match.
- San Antonio average 0.5 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Under 1.5 second-half goals is favoured because both teams' second-half scoring rates are modest, though San Antonio's late record is a warning.
- San Antonio's home split shows 0.125 second-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- 9 de Octubre's away split shows 0.375 second-half goals for and 0.5 against.
- San Antonio's last six matches averaged one second-half goal against them.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance70%

Prediction history

San Antonio Ibarra: 5/7 recent goals projections matched

5 of 7 comparable goals projections involving San Antonio Ibarra matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for San Antonio Ibarra7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Liga Pro Serie B