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San Antonio Ibarra9 de Octubre

Thu 20 Aug 2026, 21:1020 Aug, 21:10

12Probabilities0Priced5Edges72%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 20 Aug 2026, 15:29 · Europe/Bucharest

San Antonio Ibarra's home invincibility and 9 de Octubre's away defensive solidity point to a tight, low-scoring match with a draw very much in play.

The best value lies in the double chance 'San Antonio Ibarra or Draw' at 1.45 (+3pt edge) and draw no bet on San Antonio at 1.95 (+5pt edge). Avoid Under 2.5 goals and other low-scoring props, as the odds are heavily juiced and offer negative expected value.

Context

The match context is routine, with only standard home/away form patterns and no major absences or schedule issues.

San Antonio Ibarra have 4 wins and 6 draws in 10 home matches.
- They have drawn 3 of their last 5 home games.
- Their home form includes a 0-0 draw with Cumbayá and a 1-1 draw with Santo Domingo.
9 de Octubre have kept clean sheets in 7 of 10 away matches.
- They have scored only 3 goals in 10 away games.
- Their away matches average 0.6 total goals per game.
9 de Octubre won 2-0 at home in March 2026.
- The previous two meetings ended 2-2 and 1-1 draws.
- 9 de Octubre have not lost to San Antonio Ibarra in their last three encounters.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.38fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

9 de Octubre's away matches average only 0.6 total goals and they have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 away games, supporting a low-scoring contest.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.55fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

9 de Octubre's away defense is elite with 7 clean sheets in 10 away matches, while their away attack has produced only 3 goals in 10 games, making it likely at least one team fails to score.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.20fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average under 0.6 first-half goals per match and 9 de Octubre concede only 0.3 first-half goals on average, making a low-scoring first half likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result7 outcomes · top 72%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Antonio Ibarra's strong home form and recent winning streak give them a slight edge, but 9 de Octubre's solid away defensive record (3 goals conceded in 10 away games) keeps the probability moderate.
- San Antonio Ibarra are unbeaten at home this season: 4 wins, 6 draws in 10 home matches.
- San Antonio Ibarra have won their last 3 league matches, scoring 4 goals and conceding 1.
- 9 de Octubre have only 2 wins in 10 away matches, with 6 draws and 2 losses.
BetBugs · Match WinnerSan Antonio IbarraEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high draw rates in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H results show a pattern of stalemates, making a draw a very plausible outcome.
- San Antonio Ibarra have drawn 6 of 10 home matches this season.
- 9 de Octubre have drawn 6 of 10 away matches this season.
- The last two H2H meetings ended in draws (2-2 and 1-1).
BetBugs · Match WinnerDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite a strong H2H record and excellent away defense, 9 de Octubre's low away win rate and San Antonio's home resilience reduce their chances of an away victory.
- 9 de Octubre are unbeaten in the last 3 H2H meetings (2 wins, 1 draw).
- 9 de Octubre have the second-best away defensive record in the league, conceding only 3 goals in 10 away matches.
- 9 de Octubre's away form is inconsistent: 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Match Winner9 de OctubreEstimated chance28%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Antonio's home invincibility and 9 de Octubre's poor away win rate strongly support a double chance of home win or draw.
- San Antonio Ibarra are unbeaten at home this season (10 matches).
- 9 de Octubre have won only 2 of 10 away matches.
- Combined probability of home win and draw is 72% based on form and venue.
BetBugs · Double ChanceSan Antonio Ibarra or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
9 de Octubre's away resilience and San Antonio's tendency to draw at home make the away double chance a solid option.
- 9 de Octubre have avoided defeat in 8 of 10 away matches (2 wins, 6 draws).
- San Antonio Ibarra have drawn 6 of 10 home matches.
- H2H: 9 de Octubre unbeaten in last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or 9 de OctubreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half leading percentages, making a level score at halftime the most likely scenario.
- San Antonio Ibarra have led at halftime in only 33% of matches.
- 9 de Octubre have led at halftime in only 27% of matches.
- Both teams have a high percentage of first-half draws in recent matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is a plausible but low-probability outcome given the teams' draw tendencies.
- San Antonio Ibarra have drawn 6 of 10 home matches.
- 9 de Octubre have drawn 6 of 10 away matches.
- The last two H2H meetings ended in draws.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals4 outcomes · top 62%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The away team's extremely low-scoring away games and both teams' solid defensive numbers point towards a low-scoring match.
- 9 de Octubre's away matches average only 0.6 total goals (3 scored, 3 conceded in 10 games).
- San Antonio Ibarra's home matches average 2.5 goals per game (16 scored, 9 conceded in 10 games).
- Both teams have strong defensive records in their respective home/away splits.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
9 de Octubre's away defense is elite, and their away attack is weak, making it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- 9 de Octubre have kept clean sheets in 7 of 10 away matches.
- San Antonio Ibarra have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- 9 de Octubre have scored only 3 goals in 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, supporting a low first-half total.
- San Antonio Ibarra average 0.6 first-half goals per match overall.
- 9 de Octubre average 0.5 first-half goals per match overall.
- 9 de Octubre have conceded only 0.3 first-half goals per match on average.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
There is a slight trend of more goals in the second half, but the overall low-scoring nature of the match limits confidence.
- San Antonio Ibarra have scored 10 of their 16 home goals in the second half (estimated from match data).
- 9 de Octubre have conceded 2 of their 3 away goals in the second half.
- Both teams' scoring tends to increase after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 outcome · top 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without concrete corner data, we rely on the low attacking output of both teams to estimate a lower corner count.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams have low possession and shot numbers, suggesting fewer corners.
- League average corners per game is typically around 9-10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

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High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

San Antonio Ibarra has been reliable in Under 2.5 goals projections

San Antonio Ibarra has fulfilled 5 of 7 Under 2.5 goals predictions, a 71% success rate. The average estimated probability was 65.9%, with an expected 4.6 fulfilled predictions, so actual results slightly exceeded expectations. At home, they have fulfilled 3 of 4 such predictions, while away they have fulfilled 2 of 3, showing consistent performance across venues.

Recent evidence for San Antonio Ibarra7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Liga Pro Serie B