Liga Pro Serie BFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
El Nacional's institutional crisis and poor home form make San Antonio Ibarra or Draw the likely outcome, but the best betting value is on Under 2.5 goals (edge +5.9pts) and Both Teams to Score 'No' (edge +7.4pts).
Avoid the heavily juiced double chance and half-goal lines.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 3
San Antonio IbarraMarket 44.4% · BetBugs 45%
San Antonio Ibarra's superior away form and El Nacional Quito's poor home record, combined with the away team's recent H2H win, give them the edge despite the venue.
Market 54% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams have low-scoring home/away splits, with a combined average of 1.65 total goals in this matchup.
Market 47.6% · BetBugs 55%
Both teams have struggled to score consistently, and the last H2H ended with a clean sheet for San Antonio Ibarra.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 75% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
El Nacional Quito has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent under 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 61.3%, with an expected 2.5 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 3 fulfilled predictions slightly exceeded expectation. Notably, all three fulfilled predictions came at home, while the single away match missed.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 |  El Nacional Quito | 20 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14-30 | 11 |
| 6 | San Antonio Ibarra | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 23-21 | 27 |
