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Predictions graded

Levante3Athletic Bilbao1

HT 2–0Wed 21 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges6–186%

PossPossession 38%–62%ShotsShots 12–21On targetOn target 7–4CornersCorners 3–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 05:19 · Europe/Bucharest

The rearranged game at the Ciutat de València asks whether Levante's scoring at home can outweigh their habit of conceding, against an Athletic side that keeps matches tight.

Athletic hold the recent head-to-head edge, but with Sancet out and Nico Williams uncertain, the fixture looks close. Three prices offer something: Levante at 3.5, Levante to win or draw at 1.7, and over 2.5 goals at 1.88; Athletic at 2.1 and the short first-half lines do not.

Context

Athletic's attacking plans for the Ciutat de València hinge on whether Nico Williams is fit enough to feature. The winger picked up a muscle injury while with Spain and sat out the league games at Rayo Vallecano and Valencia, with this rearranged date targeted for his return. He resumed ball work in training during the week before the match, suggesting he is close, but his involvement is not settled. That uncertainty matters because Athletic's attacking options are already thinner, with Oihan Sancet also out.
- Nico Williams was not expected to feature against Rayo Vallecano or Valencia after picking up a muscle injury while with Spain in early October.
- He returned to ball work in training in the week before the Levante fixture after several days working individually at Lezama.
- Nico Williams started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Álex Berenguer started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Nico Williams did not start.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 05:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Sancet's absence removes Athletic's most direct goal threat from midfield in a fixture they would ordinarily expect to control. The soleus injury, picked up in early October, was projected to last more than a month, so 21 October falls inside his recovery window. With Nico Williams also working back to fitness, Athletic must reorganise their attacking third for a midweek trip that follows a league game at Valencia. The counterpoint is Athletic's depth in central midfield, where Beñat Prados and Mikel Jauregizar can step in.
- The muscle injury was located in the soleus of Sancet's left leg and was classified as moderate.
- The problem was expected to keep him out for more than a month, making the rearranged Levante game an unrealistic target.
- Oihan Sancet started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 05:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Flood water left the Ciutat de València pitch unplayable minutes before the original 16 September kick-off, and the matchday 6 fixture has been slotted into a midweek window on 21 October at the same ground. The rearrangement hands both clubs a congested calendar: Levante play at Deportivo la Coruña on 16 October and Athletic travel to Valencia on 17 October, so recovery and rotation become live considerations. Neither side carries any result from the abandoned evening and the venue is unchanged, so only the date and the surrounding workload have shifted. Athletic's director of football flagged the gap after the international break and before the Copa del Rey as the natural slot.
- Referee Alejandro Quintero deemed the Ciutat de València surface unplayable minutes before the scheduled 16 September kick-off as floodwater reached the tunnel.
- The game was rearranged for Wednesday 21 October at 20:00 local time at the same ground after both clubs accepted the proposed date.
- Athletic's director of football Mikel González pointed to open dates after the September international break and before the Copa del Rey, with neither club involved in European competition.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 05:16 · Europe/BucharestPostponement reportsports.yahoo.com · 16 Sep 2026Athletic statement coveragewww.thesun.co.uk · 17 Sep 2026
The abandoned Vallecas match adds an unresolved fixture to an already crowded Athletic calendar around the rearranged Levante trip. The game was stopped after 13 minutes on 10 October when home supporters threw balls, paper planes and other objects onto the pitch, and no result stands. Any replay would have to fit alongside a league game at Valencia and the 21 October visit to Levante, so the club's loading and rotation decisions carry extra weight. A resumption date had not been settled, leaving Athletic to prepare for this fixture with an uncertain schedule.
- The game was stopped in the 13th minute and definitively suspended after repeated crowd disturbances directed at Rayo Vallecano's presidency.
- Discussion of a resumption placed a possible replay between the following Sunday and Tuesday, with November as a fallback, while the rearranged Levante fixture is fixed for 21 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 05:16 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Athletic's stronger squad and control of this fixture's recent history give them a narrow upper hand.
- Athletic won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings, with one draw
- Athletic average 1.0 goals against per game and have 3 clean sheets in 6
- Levante concede 1.89 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAthletic BilbaoEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Both sides have produced quiet first halves that often reach the break level.
- Levante were level or behind at half-time in all four home matches
- Athletic were level at half-time in 3 of 6 league matches
- Athletic average 0.33 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levante's home second halves have been far more productive than Athletic's away ones.
- Levante score 2.25 second-half goals per home match
- Athletic score 0 second-half goals per away match
- Levante's last two home matches produced five second-half goals for them
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLevanteEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levante have scored in every home match and meet an Athletic side missing two regulars and carrying a rearranged fixture. Athletic's stronger squad and control of this fixture's recent history give them a narrow upper hand.
- Levante scored in all 4 home matches in the split, averaging 3.0 goals
- Levante's home split reads 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
- Athletic won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings, with one draw
- Athletic average 1.0 goals against per game and have 3 clean sheets in 6
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLevante or Athletic BilbaoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have produced quiet first halves that often reach the break level. Levante's tendency to concede before the break gives Athletic the better half-time lead chance.
- Levante were level or behind at half-time in all four home matches
- Athletic were level at half-time in 3 of 6 league matches
- Athletic score 1.0 first-half goal per away match
- Levante concede 1.0 first-half goals per game and 1.25 at home
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Athletic BilbaoEstimated chance75%

Goals7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Levante's home matches have produced goals at both ends at a high rate.
- Levante home matches average 5.25 total goals in the split
- Levante average 1.56 scored and 1.89 conceded per match
- Levante home games produced 12 goals for and 9 against in 4
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Levante score regularly at home but concede too, and Athletic have found the net on their travels.
- Levante scored and conceded in 3 of 4 home matches
- Athletic scored in both away league matches and conceded in both
- Levante conceded 9 goals in 4 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Levante's home attack has been strong enough to reach two goals regularly.
- Levante average 3.0 goals per home match in the split
- Levante scored in all 4 home matches
- Athletic conceded in both away league games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonLevante over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Athletic's low-scoring output makes two or more goals unlikely.
- Athletic scored one goal or fewer in 4 of 6 league matches
- Athletic averaged 1.0 goal in 2 away matches
- Levante kept 1 clean sheet in 4 home matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAthletic Bilbao under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Levante's early concessions make at least one first-half goal likely.
- Levante concede 1.0 first-half goals per match
- Levante's four home matches produced five first-half goals against
- Athletic score 1.0 first-half goal per away match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes one or both teams blanking before the break likely.
- Levante concede 1.0 first-half goals per match, but often without replying
- Athletic average 0.33 first-half goals
- Athletic's last three league matches were 0-0 at half-time
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levante's home second halves have consistently produced multiple goals.
- Levante home matches average 3.25 second-half goals in total
- Levante score 2.25 and concede 1.0 after the break at home
- Athletic score 0.83 second-half goals per match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two teams' corner averages sit right around the line, with Levante's lower volume pulling it down.
- Levante average 3.9 corners and concede 5.2 per match
- Athletic average 6.2 corners and concede 4.8 per match
- Levante's home matches averaged 9.5 corners
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shot averages sit just below the line.
- Levante matches average 27.7 total shots
- Athletic matches average 25.2 total shots
- Athletic away matches averaged 26 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostUnder 28.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks put enough shots on target to clear ten.
- Levante matches average 10.1 shots on target in total
- Levante home matches average 12.0 shots on target in total
- Athletic away matches average 9.5 shots on target in total
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 4W

L4-2Athletic ClubvLevanteFeb 8, 2026LL

L0-2LevantevAthletic ClubNov 29, 2025LL

L3-1Athletic ClubvLevanteMar 7, 2022LL

D0-0LevantevAthletic ClubNov 19, 2021LL

L1-2LevantevAthletic ClubMar 4, 2021CDR

Athletic Bilbao unbeaten in 5 meetingsAthletic Bilbao: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

La Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	11-15	6	DLLDW
10	Athletic Bilbao	6	2	2	2	7-6	8	DDWW

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Levante

D3-3SevillaOct 12LL

L1-3VillarrealSep 20LL

L2-4BarcelonaSep 13LL

D0-0MalagaSep 6LL

W5-2Real BetisAug 29LL

D0-0OsasunaAug 24LL

L0-3EspanyolAug 16LL

W3-1CastellónAug 8FRI

L0-1VillarrealAug 5FRI

W2-1AlbaceteAug 1FRI

W1-0Al-Qadisiyah FCJul 26FRI

L1-2Sheffield UtdJul 17FRI

W2-1LeganesJul 11FRI

L1-2Real BetisMay 23LL

W2-0MallorcaMay 17LL

Athletic Bilbao

W1-0Real SociedadOct 2FRI

D0-0AlavesSep 19LL

D1-1ElcheSep 12LL

W3-0Atletico MadridSep 5LL

W2-0Celta VigoAug 30LL

L0-2BarcelonaAug 27LL

L1-3SevillaAug 22LL

L1-3ZaragozaAug 21FRI

L0-1AtalantaAug 14FRI

L1-3MarseilleAug 9FRI

W3-0BurgosAug 1FRI

W3-0Racing SantanderJul 29FRI

D2-2EibarJul 25FRI

W2-0Sestao RiverJul 22FRI

W11-0LeioaJul 18FRI

Squad & Injuries

Levante

6 out

Attackers2/14

×#21

Midfielders2/17

×#5

Defenders15

Goalkeeper4

#21 K. Etta Eyong — Injury

A. Primo — Shoulder Injury

#5 H. Sotelo — Knee Injury

#21 K. Etta Eyong — Injury

A. Primo — Shoulder Injury

#5 H. Sotelo — Knee Injury

Athletic Bilbao

6 out

Attackers16

Midfielders2/14

×#28

Defenders4/18

×#13

×#3

×#13

×#3

Goalkeeper4

#28 P. Canales — Muscle Injury

#13 U. Egiluz — Knee Injury

#3 D. Vivian — Hamstring Injury

#28 P. Canales — Muscle Injury

#13 U. Egiluz — Knee Injury

#3 D. Vivian — Hamstring Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Levante

Levante or Draw

Over 2.5

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Draw

Result1 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 7 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Levante

Athletic Bilbao

Squad & Injuries

Levante

Athletic Bilbao