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Predictions graded

Tadley Calleva0Aldershot Town2

HT 0–2Tue 20 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–40%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Oct 2026, 16:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Tadley, the last step-five club in the Cup and four divisions below Aldershot, host a sold-out replay after twice coming from behind for 2-2.

Aldershot remain the likelier winners, though not by much and not at 1.43. Three quoted prices hold: Tadley to win or draw at 2.7, Tadley to win at 5.0, and both teams to score at 1.65. Over 2.5 goals at 1.48 does not.

Context

The ground holds 1,000, well under half the 2,886 who watched the first game at the EBB Stadium, so Tuesday night is a guaranteed full house with 150 away seats and nothing on the gate. That matters because a First Round place is decided in a cramped, partisan step-five setting rather than the open National League stadium Aldershot are used to, and the club has been reduced to arranging a stream for fans left outside. The limitation is that a tight crowd is an atmosphere rather than a documented playing condition: the only comparable occasion is the 900 who watched Tadley beat Dartford, not a record of performance in front of capacity gates.
- Tadley's home allocation sold out in ten minutes, with no tickets to be sold at the gate on the night.
- Aldershot were allocated a maximum of 150 tickets for the 1,000-capacity ground, distributed to season-ticket holders by ballot.
- Aldershot told supporters without a ticket not to travel and that entry would be refused.
- Tadley were attempting to set up a stream for supporters without tickets.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:06 · Europe/BucharestTadley FA Cup replay sells out within minuteswww.readingchronicle.co.uk · 18 Oct 2026
The only competitive meeting between the clubs produced a 2-2 draw in which the National League side twice led and twice conceded, with a bar and a disallowed goal alongside Tadley's equalisers. It matters because there is no earlier meeting to lean on, so this is the sole read on the matchup, and it shows Aldershot's set-piece leads being erased rather than a comfortable gap in level. The counterpoint is that one match is thin evidence: the woodwork and the disallowed goal suggest Aldershot's control was better than the scoreline, and Tadley's second equaliser came late rather than after a long spell of pressure.
- Tadley twice came from behind to draw 2-2 at the EBB Stadium in front of 2,886.
- Marcus Dinanga and Michael Stickland scored for Aldershot; Alfie Burton and Charlie Barlow scored for Tadley.
- Aldershot hit the bar and had a goal ruled out for offside.
- Charlie Barlow's equaliser came late in the game.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:06 · Europe/BucharestAldershot Town 2-2 Tadley Calleva match reportwww.farnhamherald.com · 17 Oct 2026Tadley Calleva in the First Round Proper hatfootballinberkshire.co.uk · 18 Oct 2026
Both Aldershot goals on Saturday came from corners taken by Lawless, the first flicked on by Stickland for Dinanga to convert the rebound, the second headed in by Stickland at the near post. That is the one repeatable pattern from the first game and the part of Aldershot's play Tadley have already seen and conceded from twice, which makes delivery from the same flank the clearest pressure point on a tighter ground. The limit on the reading is that Tadley's goalkeeper saved the initial header before the first goal and the second came after the warning, so a two-goal set-piece return is not a guarantee of the same again.
- A Lawless corner was flicked on by Stickland at the near post and Dinanga scored the rebound for Aldershot's opening goal.
- Aldershot's second goal was another Lawless corner, headed in by Stickland for his first goal for the club.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:06 · Europe/Bucharest
The draw happens on Monday evening, roughly 20 hours before kick-off, so the prize is a named First Round tie on the weekend of 7 November rather than an abstract next round. It matters because the pairing sits as a single ball, meaning both clubs watch the same number come out and one of them will spend the following night playing for a fixture it can already picture, while Tadley host a draw watch at their own ground. The limitation is that a known opponent is an incentive rather than a selection or tactical signal; nothing in the record indicates either side preparing differently because of it.
- Aldershot Town or Tadley Calleva are ball number 71 in the First Round Proper draw held on Monday evening.
- The draw is scheduled for approximately 6.35pm, with First Round ties to be played around the weekend of 7 November.
- Tadley are opening their ground for supporters to watch the draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 16:06 · Europe/BucharestTadley replay details and draw arrangementswww.readingchronicle.co.uk · 18 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aldershot's higher level and away scoring give them the stronger claim, though not a clear one.
- Aldershot play four divisions higher than Tadley.
- Aldershot have scored in 5 of 6 away matches.
- Aldershot hit the bar and had a goal disallowed in the 2-2 first game.
- Aldershot have lost 3 of 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAldershot TownEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves have been relatively level, and Aldershot have rarely led at the break away from home.
- Aldershot's six away first halves have produced only five goals.
- Aldershot have scored once in six away first halves.
- The first meeting was 1-1 at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A level second half is reasonable because the first game stayed tight after the break.
- The first meeting's second half was 1-1.
- Aldershot's away second-half goals are level at five for and five against.
- Aldershot have drawn 4 of 15 matches this season.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tadley's strong home scoring and their fightback at Aldershot keep them close, while the higher-division side still carries more quality. Aldershot's higher level and away scoring give them the stronger claim, though not a clear one.
- Tadley have won 5 of 9 home matches, scoring 23 goals at 2.56 per game.
- Aldershot have won 1 of 6 away matches, with 2 draws and 3 defeats.
- Aldershot play four divisions higher than Tadley.
- Aldershot have scored in 5 of 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTadley Calleva or Aldershot TownEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tadley's home first-half scoring and Aldershot's slow away starts give the home side a slight edge before the break. First halves have been relatively level, and Aldershot have rarely led at the break away from home.
- Tadley have scored four first-half goals in three home games with split data.
- Aldershot have scored once in six away first halves.
- Aldershot's six away first halves have produced only five goals.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostTadley Calleva or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both sides have been scoring and conceding regularly, and the first game was open.
- Tadley's home matches average 5.44 total goals.
- Aldershot's last six matches all had both teams scoring.
- The first meeting produced four goals.
- Aldershot's away matches average 2.5 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Both teams have found the net consistently, and neither has kept a recent home or away clean sheet.
- Tadley have scored in 8 of 9 home matches and conceded in all 9.
- Aldershot have scored in 5 of 6 away matches and conceded in all 6.
- Both teams scored in Aldershot's last six matches.
- The first meeting finished 2-2.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first game and Tadley's home data point to an early goal, though Aldershot's away first halves have been quiet.
- The first meeting had two first-half goals.
- Tadley's three home games with first-half data produced seven first-half goals.
- Aldershot's six away first halves have produced five goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent second halves have produced enough goals to make two a reasonable outcome.
- Tadley's three home games with split data averaged two second-half goals.
- Aldershot's six away games averaged 1.67 second-half goals.
- The first meeting had two second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 0W

D2-2Aldershot TownvTadley CallevaOct 17, 2026FAC

4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Tadley Calleva

D2-2Aldershot TownOct 17FAC

W2-1DartfordOct 3FAC

W1-0Bishop's CleeveSep 19FAC

W3-1Laverstock & FordSep 5FAC

W1-0Ashford Town (Middlesex)Jul 21FRI

L0-2Bracknell TownSep 13FAC

W4-2WeymouthAug 30FAC

W3-0ChristchurchAug 15FAC

W4-1Millbrook FCAug 2FAC

L2-3Millbrook FCAug 3FAC

L1-5Didcot TownSep 13FAC

L1-8AFC PortchesterAug 19FAC

W5-2Alton TownAug 8FAC

L2-6Wincanton TownAug 6FAC

L0-2Baffins Milton RoversAug 7FAC

Aldershot Town

D2-2Tadley CallevaOct 17FAC

W5-3Norwich City U21Oct 13NAT

L1-3AltrinchamOct 10NAT

L1-3CarlisleOct 3NAT

L1-2AFC HornchurchSep 29NAT

W5-1TamworthSep 26NAT

L0-1BarrowSep 19NAT

D1-1Yeovil TownSep 15NAT

W2-1Solihull MoorsSep 12NAT

L0-3West Ham United U21Sep 8NAT

W1-0FC Halifax TownSep 5NAT

D1-1EastleighAug 31NAT

W3-1Harrogate TownAug 28NAT

D1-1Kidderminster HarriersAug 22NAT

L0-1HartlepoolAug 15NAT

Squad & Injuries

Tadley Calleva

0 available

Attackers0

Midfielders0

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Aldershot Town

23 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Tadley Calleva or Draw

Tadley Calleva

Yes

Over 2.5

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Tadley Calleva

Aldershot Town

Squad & Injuries

Tadley Calleva

Aldershot Town