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Predictions graded

Altrincham3Aldershot Town1

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions13–287%

Edges6–186%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 04:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Altrincham have won four of five at home and meet an Aldershot side who have lost their last two league games but sit only three points behind with a level away record.

Altrincham are the likelier winners, though not by the margin the 1.91 price asks for. Under 2.5 goals at 2.25 is the one quoted price that offers anything; both teams to score at 1.57 does not.

Context

Altrincham have made Moss Lane a genuine stronghold, and this early-kick-off game is their first home league fixture since 26 September. The club's own framing - a Fan Zone from 11am and a four-match home winning run to defend - makes the venue a live part of the story rather than a backdrop. It is not one-way traffic, as Aldershot have taken road points this season with wins at Boston United and Solihull Moors and draws at Eastleigh and Kidderminster Harriers, so the home run is a real but not decisive edge.
- Altrincham's official account posted on 8 October 2026 that Saturday is an early kick-off and that the team are 'on the hunt for a fifth straight home win' at the J Davidson Scrap Stadium.
- Supporter account Inter Alty confirmed a 12:30pm kick-off at Moss Lane (J Davidson Scrap Stadium) in posts on 7 and 8 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 04:40 · Europe/Bucharest
Altrincham have scored in every home league game but have conceded in four of the five, so those five fixtures have produced 16 goals between them. That record meets an Aldershot side who have scored in five of six away games and average a goal a game on the road. A home win with a clean sheet would go against the pattern so far, and the totals point to goals at both ends.
- Altrincham home league record, 8 August to 26 September 2026: 5 matches, 4W-0D-1L, 10 goals for and 6 against, one clean sheet, scored in all five and conceded in four.
The shortlisting was published on 7 October, with public voting open until 11 October, so the recognition sits directly alongside this fixture. Altrincham's climb from 22nd to the top four is the concrete record behind it, which is why the game reads as a live test of whether that run holds against a mid-table side. The award has no selection or tactical consequence of its own, and it reflects results already in the table rather than anything specific to Aldershot.
- Altrincham announced on 7 October 2026 that manager Neil Gibson had been shortlisted for the National League's September manager of the month award.
- A 5 October awards round-up credited Gibson with guiding Altrincham from 22nd to fourth in the table, with public voting open until 11 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 04:40 · Europe/Bucharest
Both clubs went into the same FA Cup fourth qualifying round draw on 5 October and both came out with home ties a week after this fixture. It matters as context because the round is the last step before the first round proper, and the prize money Aldershot published (£9,375 to the winners) makes the following weekend a significant one for both clubs. The ties fall seven days after this game, so any effect on Saturday's selection or approach is speculative rather than established.
- The FA Cup fourth qualifying round draw made on 5 October 2026 paired Altrincham with FC United of Manchester and Aldershot Town with Tadley Calleva, with all 32 ties scheduled for Saturday 17 October.
- Aldershot's official post confirmed the winners of their tie receive £9,375 and the losers £3,215.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 04:40 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double Chance First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Altrincham or Draw

1.22fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 82%

−2.0ppshort

Altrincham start home games strongly with 1.2 first-half goals while Aldershot have scored only once before the break in six away games. Both teams' first-half scoring is limited, with Aldershot especially quiet before the break away from home, which supports a level half.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Altrincham or Aldershot Town

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

−5.0ppshort

Altrincham have won four of five at home and score regularly there, while Aldershot's away record is only level and they have won two of six on the road. Aldershot have been competitive away with a level goal record and sit only three points behind Altrincham, so they are capable of taking the game.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 82%

−8.0ppshort

Altrincham have scored in the first half in every recent match and their home halves average almost two goals combined.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 63.7%

−3.7ppshort

Both sides score and concede at similar rates, with Altrincham finding the net in every home game and Aldershot scoring in five of six away.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Altrincham

1.91fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 52.4%

−4.4ppshort

Altrincham have won four of five at home and score regularly there, while Aldershot's away record is only level and they have won two of six on the road.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Altrincham

2.30fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 43.5%

−1.5ppshort

Altrincham start home games strongly with 1.2 first-half goals while Aldershot have scored only once before the break in six away games.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.91
The read
Altrincham have won four of five at home and score regularly there, while Aldershot's away record is only level and they have won two of six on the road.
- Altrincham home: 4W-0D-1L, 10 goals for, 6 against in 5
- Aldershot away: 2W-2D-2L, 6 scored, 6 conceded in 6
- Altrincham scored in all 5 home matches; 7W-0D-5L overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAltrinchamEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Altrincham start home games strongly with 1.2 first-half goals while Aldershot have scored only once before the break in six away games.
- Altrincham home first-half goals for: 1.2 per game; against 0.6
- Aldershot away first-half goals for: 0.17 per game
- Altrincham led at half-time in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonAltrinchamEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides average fewer than a goal after the break in these venue splits, which keeps a level second half likely.
- Altrincham home second-half goals: 0.8 for, 0.6 against per game
- Aldershot away second-half goals: 0.83 for, 0.5 against per game
- Second-half totals average around 1.4 goals combined
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Altrincham have won four of five at home and score regularly there, while Aldershot's away record is only level and they have won two of six on the road. Aldershot have been competitive away with a level goal record and sit only three points behind Altrincham, so they are capable of taking the game.
- Altrincham home: 4W-0D-1L, 10 goals for, 6 against in 5
- Aldershot away: 2W-2D-2L, 6 scored, 6 conceded in 6
- Aldershot away: 2W-2D-2L, 1.0 goals for and against per game
- Altrincham home defeat: 1 of 5, conceding 1.2 per home game
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAltrincham or Aldershot TownEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Altrincham start home games strongly with 1.2 first-half goals while Aldershot have scored only once before the break in six away games. Both teams' first-half scoring is limited, with Aldershot especially quiet before the break away from home, which supports a level half.
- Altrincham home first-half goals for: 1.2 per game; against 0.6
- Aldershot away first-half goals for: 0.17 per game
- Altrincham home first-half goals against: 0.6 per game
- Aldershot away first-half goals for: 0.17, against 0.5
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAltrincham or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals9 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham's home matches average comfortably more than three goals and both sides have conceded regularly, which points to a game with goals in it.
- Altrincham home totals average 3.2 goals per game (2.0 for, 1.2 against)
- Aldershot away totals average 2.0 per game
- Both teams scored in 8 of Altrincham's 12 and 8 of Aldershot's 13
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both sides score and concede at similar rates, with Altrincham finding the net in every home game and Aldershot scoring in five of six away.
- Altrincham scored in all 5 home games; conceded in 4
- Aldershot scored in 5 of 6 away games; conceded in 5 of 6
- Both teams scored in 8 of 12 Altrincham and 8 of 13 Aldershot league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham have averaged two goals a game at home and scored in every home fixture, so reaching two goals is a realistic target.
- Altrincham home: 10 goals in 5 games, 2.0 per match
- Altrincham scored in all 5 home matches
- Home wins include 3-0 and 2-1 scorelines
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAltrincham over 1.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aldershot's away scoring has been modest at a goal a game, and Altrincham's home defence has generally kept opponents to one.
- Aldershot away: 1.0 goals per game across 6
- Aldershot overall 1.31 goals per game across 13
- Altrincham home concede 1.2 per game
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAldershot Town under 1.5Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aldershot have scored in five of six away fixtures, making it likely Altrincham concede at least once.
- Altrincham conceded in 4 of 5 home games
- Aldershot scored in 5 of 6 away games
- Altrincham home goals against average 1.2
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAldershot Town to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham have found the net in every home fixture this season, which makes an Aldershot clean sheet the unlikely outcome.
- Altrincham scored in 5 of 5 home games
- Altrincham home goals for average 2.0
- Aldershot conceded in 5 of 6 away games
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonAltrincham to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham have kept only one home clean sheet, so even a home win is likely to come without shutting Aldershot out.
- Altrincham home clean sheets: 1 in 5
- Aldershot scored in 5 of 6 away games
- Both teams scored in 8 of Altrincham's 12 league matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Altrincham have scored in the first half in every recent match and their home halves average almost two goals combined.
- Altrincham home first-half goals for plus against: 1.8 per game
- Altrincham scored in the first half in all six of their last six matches
- Aldershot away first-half totals: 0.67 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aldershot's first-half away output is very low, making it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- Aldershot scored one first-half away goal all season
- Altrincham home first-half goals against: 0.6 per game
- Aldershot's away first-half average is 0.17
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team averages a goal after the break in these venue splits, which points to a quieter second half.
- Altrincham home second-half goals: 0.8 for, 0.6 against per game
- Aldershot away second-half goals: 0.83 for, 0.5 against per game
- Both sides average under a goal per second half in these splits
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

L2-1Aldershot TownvAltrinchamDec 6, 2025NAT

W3-2AltrinchamvAldershot TownAug 9, 2025NAT

L1-2AltrinchamvAldershot TownMar 15, 2025NAT

L2-1Aldershot TownvAltrinchamNov 23, 2024NAT

L2-0Aldershot TownvAltrinchamFeb 17, 2024NAT

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

National League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Altrincham Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)	12	7	0	5	17-18	21	LWWWW
10	Aldershot Town	12	5	3	4	17-13	18	LLWLD

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Altrincham

L1-3Boreham WoodOct 3NAT

W1-0GatesheadSep 29NAT

W3-0AFC HornchurchSep 26NAT

W2-1AFC FyldeSep 19NAT

W2-1HartlepoolSep 16NAT

L1-5WokingSep 12NAT

W2-1EastleighSep 4NAT

W2-1Forest GreenAug 31NAT

W2-1FC Halifax TownAug 28NAT

L0-1Boston UnitedAug 22NAT

L0-1Sutton UtdAug 15NAT

L1-3SouthendAug 8NAT

W1-0Manchester United U21Jul 31FRI

L2-5MacclesfieldJul 25FRI

D0-0ChorleyJul 21FRI

Aldershot Town

L1-3CarlisleOct 3NAT

L1-2AFC HornchurchSep 29NAT

W5-1TamworthSep 26NAT

L0-1BarrowSep 19NAT

D1-1Yeovil TownSep 15NAT

W2-1Solihull MoorsSep 12NAT

L0-3West Ham United U21Sep 8NAT

W1-0FC Halifax TownSep 5NAT

D1-1EastleighAug 31NAT

W3-1Harrogate TownAug 28NAT

D1-1Kidderminster HarriersAug 22NAT

L0-1HartlepoolAug 15NAT

W1-0Boston UnitedAug 8NAT

W2-1BraintreeAug 1FRI

W2-0Hanwell TownJul 25FRI

Squad & Injuries

Altrincham

24 available

Attackers8

Midfielders7

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Aldershot Town

23 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2