FK Novi Pazar1FK IMT2

HT 0–0Sun 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–847%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 10–13On targetOn target 5–7CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Oct 2026, 23:30 · Europe/Bucharest

IMT sit third and travel to an eighth-placed Novi Pazar side that appointed a new head coach three days before kick-off.

Both attacks average under 1.3 goals a game and IMT concede 0.64 per league match, pointing to a tight, low-scoring game where at least one side fails to score. Of the reviewed prices, Novi Pazar to win at 2.38, either team to win at 1.35 and under 2.5 goals at 1.75 sit short of what they require; both teams to score — No at 1.95 is the one that holds up.

Context

A change of coach is a genuine reset point before this fixture: Lalatović was presented on 15 October and has only a short window to reshape training and selection before IMT visit. He already knows the club from a spell that ended about five months ago, which can shorten the settling period compared with an outside appointment. Whether he keeps the side that lost at Partizan or introduces his own structure in a few days is unresolved, so any tactical shift should be read as directional rather than settled.
- Nenad Lalatović is the new head coach at Novi Pazar; his presentation took place on 15 October at 13:00 and was streamed live on the club's channel.
- Strahinja Pandurović's time at Novi Pazar ended by mutual agreement.
- Lalatović previously coached Novi Pazar, leaving about five months before his return.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:28 · Europe/BucharestFK Novi Pazar official sitewww.fknovipazar.com · 15 Oct 2026
The 21st-minute goal is the concrete anchor: IMT won their Round 11 match and returned to third ahead of this trip. A player who settles a tight game is a reasonable pointer to him keeping his place, and Novi Pazar must prepare for that threat while installing a new coach. The limitation is that one goal says little about repeat output, and IMT's away results this season have been mixed, so the match-winner is better read as a selection pointer than a hard attacking signal.
- Karl Kezy Fabien scored in the 21st minute as IMT beat Radnik 1:0 in Round 11 on 10 October 2026.
- The win lifted IMT back to third place.
- K. Fabien started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 15 Oct 2026, 23:28 · Europe/BucharestFK IMT official sitewww.fkimt.com · 10 Oct 2026
The most recent Super Liga meeting between these clubs finished 3-2 to Novi Pazar in Belgrade on 7 December 2025, the one recent head-to-head to produce five goals. It is a reminder that this fixture can open up even though both current sides have low-scoring records. That result came under a different Novi Pazar coach, so it carries limited weight for this weekend.
- 7 December 2025, Super Liga: IMT 2-3 Novi Pazar.
- None of the other four head-to-head meetings listed produced more than four goals.
IMT's league record splits sharply by venue: five home games have brought three wins, one draw and one defeat with seven goals scored and one conceded, while six away games have produced two wins, two draws and two defeats with six scored and six conceded. Their third place is therefore built mostly in Belgrade, and the trip to Novi Pazar asks them to reproduce a level they have rarely matched on the road.
- IMT home league record: 5 played, 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 7 goals for, 1 against.
- IMT away league record: 6 played, 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 6 goals for, 6 against.
- IMT are third on 18 points after 11 league games.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FK Novi Pazar or FK IMT

1.35fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 74.1%

−2.1ppshort

Novi Pazar are hard to beat at home and IMT are only mid-table on the road. IMT have the better record and a defence that keeps games close on the road.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

−2.1ppshort

Both attacks are modest and the overall match totals are consistently low.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
Novi Pazar are hard to beat at home and IMT are only mid-table on the road.
- Novi Pazar have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 6 home league games, scoring 9 and conceding 7.
- IMT have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses away, scoring 6 and conceding 6.
- Nenad Lalatović was confirmed as Novi Pazar head coach on 15 October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFK Novi PazarEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams start cautiously and produce few first-half goals.
- Novi Pazar average 0.45 first-half goals overall; IMT average 0.36.
- Novi Pazar have drawn 4 of 11 and IMT 3 of 11 league games.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-half scoring rates are similar enough to keep the half level.
- Novi Pazar concede 0.83 second-half goals at home; IMT score 0.83 away.
- Both teams draw many matches and second halves are close.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Novi Pazar are hard to beat at home and IMT are only mid-table on the road. IMT have the better record and a defence that keeps games close on the road.
- Novi Pazar have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss in 6 home league games, scoring 9 and conceding 7.
- IMT have 2 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses away, scoring 6 and conceding 6.
- IMT sit third on 18 points; Novi Pazar are eighth on 13.
- IMT have conceded 0.64 goals per league game with 5 clean sheets in 11.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFK Novi Pazar or FK IMTEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novi Pazar's home first halves are stronger than IMT's away first halves. Both teams start cautiously and produce few first-half goals.
- Novi Pazar average 0.67 first-half goals at home and concede 0.33.
- IMT average 0.17 first-half goals away and concede 0.67.
- Novi Pazar average 0.45 first-half goals overall; IMT average 0.36.
- Novi Pazar have drawn 4 of 11 and IMT 3 of 11 league games.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFK Novi Pazar or DrawEstimated chance77%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both attacks are modest and the overall match totals are consistently low.
- Novi Pazar have scored 7 and conceded 7 in 11 league games (1.27 per match).
- IMT have scored 8 and conceded 6 in 11 league games (1.27 per match).
- Both teams average under 1.2 goals scored per game overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both defences are capable of shutting the other side out in a low-scoring game.
- IMT failed to score in 2 of 6 away games.
- Novi Pazar kept 3 clean sheets in 6 home games.
- IMT kept 5 clean sheets in 11 league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Home first halves at Novi Pazar usually produce at least one goal.
- Novi Pazar home first halves average 1.0 combined goals.
- IMT away first halves average 0.83 combined goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IMT's very low late concession rate makes a quiet second half likely.
- IMT concede 0.18 second-half goals per game overall.
- IMT average 0.33 second-half goals against away.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Novi Pazar's overall scoring is modest against one of the league's tighter defences.
- Novi Pazar have scored 7 goals in 11 league games (0.91 per game).
- IMT kept 5 clean sheets in 11 and concede 0.64 per game overall.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonFK Novi Pazar under 1.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
IMT rarely score twice and Novi Pazar's home defence is solid.
- IMT have scored 8 goals in 11 league games (1.18 per game).
- IMT average 1.0 goals per away game and failed to score in 2 of 6.
- Novi Pazar kept 4 clean sheets in 11 league games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFK IMT under 1.5Estimated chance76%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IMT concede few corners away, which holds the combined count down.
- IMT away games average 8.2 corners combined (4.7 for, 3.5 against).
- IMT give up only 3.2 corners per game overall.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
IMT limit opponent shots well, which keeps the combined count below the line.
- IMT away games average 25.8 total shots (14.7 for, 11.2 against).
- IMT allow only 8.8 shots per game overall.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonUnder 29.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams record few shots on target, so the lower line is well supported.
- Novi Pazar home games average 9.5 combined shots on target (5.0 for, 4.5 against).
- IMT away games average 8.0 combined (4.8 for, 3.2 against).
- IMT concede only 2.55 shots on target per game overall.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both clubs pick up regular bookings and the home side has shown red-card risk.
- Novi Pazar home games average 5.2 total yellow cards (3.3 for, 1.8 against).
- IMT away games average 6.0 total yellow cards (3.0 for, 3.0 against).
- Novi Pazar received a red card in their 2-2 home draw with Zemun.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W2-3IMT Novi BeogradvNovi PazarDec 7, 2025SUP

W1-2Novi PazarvIMT Novi BeogradAug 4, 2025SUP

D0-0IMT Novi BeogradvNovi PazarMar 28, 2025SUP

L3-1Novi PazarvIMT Novi BeogradNov 3, 2024SUP

W0-1IMT Novi BeogradvNovi PazarMay 7, 2024SUP

FK Novi Pazar: 2 clean sheets2.6 goals/game avg

League Table

Super Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	FK Novi Pazar Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Relegation Group)	11	3	4	4	10-12	13	LDDWD
3	FK IMT Promotion - Mozzart Bet Super Liga (Championship Group)	11	5	3	3	13-7	18	WDLDW