FK Novi Pazar2FK Zemun2

HT 1–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–746%

Edges3–443%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 19–7On targetOn target 7–4CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 17:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Novi Pazar's extreme home/away edge and Zemun's confirmed goalkeeper and new-coach disruptions make a home win or draw the likely result, but the short 1.36 and 1.08 prices leave no value.

The actionable edges are Draw-Home HT/FT at 3.80 and Under 2.5 goals at 2.10, while the 1.06 first-half double chance is the clearest avoid.

Context

Zemun are bottom of the 14-team Super Liga with 2 points from 9 matches, and their away form is the weakest part of that record.
In four away league games Zemun have lost every one, scoring 1 goal and conceding 10. Their two draws and both goals scored at home show they are not completely without results, but the away sample is a separate and much worse pattern. Novi Pazar have won 3 of 5 home league games, so the venue split points to a home side that can use familiar ground against a visitor yet to take anything on its travels.
- Zemun away record in 2026-27: 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses, 1 goal scored, 10 conceded.
- Zemun overall: 0 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses, 4 goals scored, 17 conceded in 9 league games.
- Novi Pazar home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 7 goals scored, 5 conceded in 5 home league games.
Novi Pazar sit 7th in the Super Liga relegation group with 12 points from 9 matches, and their points are heavily split between home and away.
At home Novi Pazar have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses with 1 goal scored. That split means their league position is built on home results, and this fixture gives them another chance to add to that total. The limit is that home form alone does not guarantee a repeat, since Zemun will still need to be beaten on the day.
- Novi Pazar home record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 7 goals scored, 5 conceded in 5 home league games.
- Novi Pazar away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 1 goal scored, 4 conceded in 4 away league games.
- Novi Pazar have 12 points from 9 league games, with 10 of those points coming at home.
Mladen Živković is Zemun's captain and first-choice goalkeeper, and he suffered a serious knee injury against Radnik that requires surgery and a multi-month recovery.
His absence forces Zemun to change goalkeeper selection and reorganise defensive communication for this away match. The confirmed injury removes the captain from the matchday options, so the replacement goalkeeper steps into a back line that must adjust its organisation without its usual leader.
- B92 reported on 15 September that Zemun captain Mladen Živković suffered a serious knee injury against Radnik and faces a multi-month recovery.
- Direktno reported FK Zemun's statement that Živković damaged his anterior cruciate ligament and meniscus, and will undergo surgery.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 17:07 · Europe/BucharestB92 Sportwww.b92.net · 15 Sep 2026Direktnodirektno.rs · 16 Sep 2026
Zemun are last in the Super Liga with 2 points and a goal difference of -13 after nine matches.
Zemun's 4 goals scored is the joint-lowest in the league, and their 17 conceded is the worst defensive record. They average 8.8 shots and 2.2 shots on target per game, so they create few clear chances. Against a Novi Pazar side that has kept clean sheets in three home wins, Zemun's limited scoring output is a central obstacle to getting a result.
- Zemun league record: 4 goals scored and 17 conceded in 9 matches, goal difference -13.
- Zemun averages: 0.9 goals per game, 8.8 shots per game, 2.2 shots on target per game.
- Zemun have scored 1 goal in 4 away league games this season.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge is extreme: Novi Pazar have won 3 of 5 at home while Zemun have lost all 4 away games with a 1:10 goal difference, and motivation/stakes favour the mid-table home side against a bottom club.
- Novi Pazar home record 2026 Super Liga: 3W-1D-1L, 7 goals for, 5 against in 5 home matches
- Zemun away record: 0W-0D-4L, 1 goal for, 10 against in 4 away matches
- Zemun overall: 0 wins in 9 league matches, 4 goals scored, 17 conceded, rank 14 with 2 points
- Last 5 league form: Novi Pazar DWDLW vs Zemun DLLLL
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFK Novi PazarEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Novi Pazar's strong home record with Zemun's winless season and scoreless away profile makes a home win or draw the dominant outcome, reinforced by H2H psychology where Zemun have never won at Novi Pazar in the recent sample.
- Novi Pazar home: 3W-1D-1L in 5 home league matches (only one home defeat)
- Zemun away: 0W-0D-4L, scoring just 1 goal in 4 away matches
- Zemun have not won any of their 9 league matches this season (0W-2D-7L)
- H2H last 3 meetings: two draws and one Novi Pazar home win
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFK Novi Pazar or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have low first-half scoring rates and frequently reach the break level, making a half-time draw the modal outcome.
- Novi Pazar half-time result in last 5 league matches: D, D, D, L, W
- Zemun half-time result in last 5 league matches: W, D, D, L, L
- Novi Pazar led at half-time in only 20% of matches; Zemun in 14%
- Zemun trailed at half-time in 36% of matches, Novi Pazar in 47%
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novi Pazar's home superiority and Zemun's heavy away concession rate suggest the home side is most likely to win the second half as the game opens up.
- Novi Pazar home record 3W-1D-1L with 7 goals scored at home
- Zemun conceded 10 goals in 4 away matches, an average of 2.5 per away game
- Zemun's second-half defensive record is weak with 17 goals conceded in 9 league matches
- Novi Pazar's home wins came with second-half goals in recent matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostFK Novi PazarEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zemun rarely lead at the break and have been poor away, so Novi Pazar or a draw at half-time is the strongly favoured first-half double chance.
- Novi Pazar trailed at half-time in 47% of matches but led or drew in the rest
- Zemun led at half-time in only 14% of matches
- Zemun away: 0W-0D-4L with just 1 goal scored
- Zemun's last 5 league first halves: W, D, D, L, L
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonFK Novi Pazar or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win-to-win double is plausible given the large home/away gap, but Novi Pazar's low half-time lead rate keeps this a lower-confidence combination.
- Novi Pazar home record 3W-1D-1L in 5 home league matches
- Zemun away record 0W-0D-4L with 1 goal scored and 10 conceded
- Novi Pazar led at half-time in 20% of matches
- Zemun trailed at half-time in 36% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFK Novi Pazar / FK Novi PazarEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages and Zemun's away attack is nearly non-existent, so despite Novi Pazar's home edge the total-goals distribution skews under 2.5.
- Novi Pazar average 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match over last 15
- Zemun average 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match over last 15
- Zemun away matches: 1 goal scored in 4 away league games
- Novi Pazar home matches: 7 goals in 5 home league games (1.4 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zemun's away scoring output is minimal (1 goal in 4 away games) and their shot-on-target volume is very low, making a clean sheet for the home side the more likely scenario.
- Zemun scored just 1 goal in 4 away league matches this season
- Zemun have failed to score in 6 of their last 9 league matches
- Novi Pazar conceded 5 goals in 5 home league matches but kept 2 clean sheets in last 5 home games
- Zemun average 2.2 shots on target per match over last 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zemun's away attack is the weakest in the league sample and Novi Pazar's home defence has been reasonably solid, supporting a home clean sheet.
- Zemun away: 1 goal scored in 4 away league matches
- Zemun average 0.9 goals per match and 2.2 shots on target over last 15
- Novi Pazar kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 home league matches
- Zemun failed to score in 6 of 9 league matches this season
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFK Zemun not to scoreEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score very few first-half goals and rarely lead at the break, so a low-scoring opening period is the most probable outcome.
- Novi Pazar average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded over last 15
- Zemun average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded over last 15
- Novi Pazar led at half-time in only 20% of matches; Zemun in 14%
- Zemun's last 5 league matches produced just 1 first-half goal total
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages sit near the line and Zemun's deep away defending tends to concede corners, giving a slight lean to the over.
- Novi Pazar average 4.1 corners per match over last 15
- Zemun average 3.1 corners per match over last 15
- Novi Pazar's recent home matches produced 3, 8 and 3 corners; Zemun's away matches produced 3, 3 and 2
- Zemun concede an average of 5+ opponent corners in away matches
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high foul and card averages, and Zemun's disciplinary record is poor with multiple red cards, supporting an over on total cards.
- Novi Pazar average 2.3 yellow cards and 0.3 red cards per match over last 15
- Zemun average 3.1 yellow cards and 0.6 red cards per match over last 15
- Zemun received a red card in 3 of their last 9 league matches
- Novi Pazar average 13.9 fouls per match; Zemun 13.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Novi Pazar's home shot-on-target volume plus Zemun's modest output puts the combined total near the line, making this a marginal lean rather than a strong call.
- Novi Pazar average 4.7 shots on target per match over last 15
- Zemun average 2.2 shots on target per match over last 15
- Novi Pazar's home matches produced 4, 6 and 5 shots on target recently
- Zemun's away matches produced 5, 1 and 3 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%