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Predictions graded

Eastleigh3Brentwood Town2

HT 1–2Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges1–420%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 16:58 · Europe/Bucharest

A National League side hosts Isthmian Premier opposition with a first-round place at stake, and Brentwood Town have already beaten higher-division Dagenham & Redbridge.

Eastleigh are the likelier winners at home, but 1.14 asks for near-certainty and their season reads 4W 3D 6L. Brentwood to win or draw at 4.75, both teams to score at 2.25, no goal before half-time at 3.8, the draw at 7.5 and under 2.5 goals at 2.63 are the prices worth taking.

Context

The tie is the final qualifying hurdle, and the winners move into the first round proper where EFL clubs enter the competition. For Eastleigh, a full-time National League side, that is the minimum expectation at this stage; for Brentwood Town it would be a landmark. The fixture therefore carries a clear sporting stake beyond an ordinary cup afternoon. Both clubs have publicly framed it that way, Brentwood describing the chance to make history.
- Eastleigh host Brentwood Town at the Silverlake Stadium on Saturday 17 October, 3pm, in the Emirates FA Cup Fourth Qualifying Round.
- The fourth qualifying round is the last before the first round proper, where EFL League One and League Two clubs enter.
- Eastleigh enter the competition at the fourth qualifying round stage as a National League club.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Brentwood Town have already removed a National League South club from the competition, beating Dagenham & Redbridge 3-1 in front of a sell-out 1,600 crowd in the previous round. They now face Eastleigh two divisions higher, which makes them clear underdogs but not passive ones given that result. The central question is whether Eastleigh's full-time fitness and home advantage tell against a part-time side on the biggest day of its cup run. The run is a genuine reason to expect a competitive tie rather than a routine home win.
- Brentwood Town beat Dagenham & Redbridge 3-1 at The Arena in the FA Cup Third Qualifying Round on 3 October, with Luke Read scoring in the first half and Alfie Cerulli scoring twice on debut.
- The attendance was 1,600, the highest of the Third Qualifying Round.
- Brentwood Town play in the Isthmian Premier, two divisions below National League Eastleigh.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Brentwood Town's farewell noted three appearances, all wins, taking in two qualifying rounds and the victory over Dagenham & Redbridge. His move to Aveley on 5 October removes a midfielder who had been part of the cup side shortly before the Eastleigh trip. Whether it alters the XI depends on who replaces him in the middle, but the departure is a settled loss rather than an injury doubt. The timing, twelve days before the tie, gives Brentwood time to reshuffle.
- Shad Ngandu left Brentwood Town to join Aveley on 5 October, linking up with Alex Akrofi.
- Ngandu made three appearances for Brentwood, all wins, across two FA Cup qualifying rounds and the win over Dagenham & Redbridge.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Eastleigh's 4W 3D 6L record across 13 competitive matches makes the home half of the season decisive: 3W 3D 1L in seven games at the Silverlake, with all three draws coming there. Brentwood visit a ground where the hosts have lost once, 1-3 to Woking on 3 October, though Eastleigh have won only three of those seven. Seven home matches is a small sample rather than a settled pattern.
- Eastleigh's home record is 3 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in seven National League home matches between 8 August and 3 October 2026.
- Eastleigh scored 7 and conceded 6 across those seven home matches.
- All three of Eastleigh's draws in 13 competitive matches came at home.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A two-division gap and a solid Eastleigh home record point to the hosts doing most of the attacking against lower-league visitors.
- Eastleigh are 3W 3D 1L at home (7 matches).
- Brentwood are 2W 1D 5L away, scoring 1.0 goal per away game.
- Eastleigh sit two divisions higher (National League vs Isthmian Premier).
- Eastleigh overall 4W 3D 6L, with the home split clearly their stronger one.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEastleighEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither side has scored heavily in first halves, so the interval is the most likely outcome.
- Eastleigh home first-half goals average total is 0.86.
- Brentwood away first-half goals average total is 1.25.
- Eastleigh drew the first half in their recent Southend match.
- Half-time stalemates are common in cup ties.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams scoring and conceding after the break, the second half is often shared.
- Eastleigh home second-half goals average total is 1.86.
- Brentwood away second-half goals average total is 1.5.
- Eastleigh drew the second half in their recent Carlisle and Southend games.
- Second halves have produced more goals than first halves for both.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A two-division gap and a solid Eastleigh home record point to the hosts doing most of the attacking against lower-league visitors. Eastleigh's habit of drawing at home and the tighter nature of a one-off cup tie keep a stalemate meaningful.
- Eastleigh are 3W 3D 1L at home (7 matches).
- Brentwood are 2W 1D 5L away, scoring 1.0 goal per away game.
- Eastleigh have drawn 3 of 13 competitive matches, all 3 at home.
- Brentwood have drawn 1 of 14 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonEastleigh or DrawEstimated chance81%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eastleigh's home first halves have yielded more goals for them than against, while Brentwood concede more often before the break. Neither side has scored heavily in first halves, so the interval is the most likely outcome.
- Eastleigh home first-half goals average is 0.57 for and 0.29 against.
- Brentwood away first-half goals average is 0.375 for and 0.875 against.
- Eastleigh home first-half goals average total is 0.86.
- Brentwood away first-half goals average total is 1.25.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostEastleigh or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals7 of 10 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' home and away matches have averaged close to three goals and neither defence has been hard to score against.
- Eastleigh home matches average 2.71 total goals.
- Brentwood away matches average 2.75 total goals.
- Eastleigh's last six matches average 2.83 goals.
- Brentwood overall average 3.5 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Eastleigh have conceded in most home games and Brentwood have scored in half their away matches, so both finding the net is plausible.
- Eastleigh home matches had both teams scoring in 6 of 7.
- Brentwood away matches had both teams scoring in 4 of 8.
- Eastleigh overall both-scored in 9 of 13.
- Brentwood scored 3 at Dagenham & Redbridge in the last round.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Eastleigh's recent home matches have produced a single goal each, so staying below two is the more likely side.
- Eastleigh scored 1 in each of their last three home games.
- Eastleigh home goals average is 1.43.
- Eastleigh home wins have been low-scoring, including 1-0 and 1-1.
- Brentwood kept one clean sheet in eight away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostEastleigh under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Away from home Brentwood have scored at roughly one per game against weaker opposition than Eastleigh.
- Brentwood away goals average is 1.0.
- Brentwood scored 4 in 8 away matches by count.
- Brentwood were scoreless at Chatham Town on 10 October.
- Eastleigh concede 1.29 per home game.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostBrentwood Town under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eastleigh's home matches have almost always featured a Brentwood-type opponent scoring.
- Eastleigh kept 1 clean sheet in 7 home matches.
- Eastleigh conceded 1.29 per home game.
- Brentwood scored twice at Whyteleafe and three at Aveley away.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Eastleigh's 7 home games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBrentwood Town to scoreEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brentwood have conceded in most away matches and Eastleigh have scored in nearly all their home games.
- Brentwood kept 1 clean sheet in 8 away matches.
- Brentwood away goals against average is 1.75.
- Eastleigh scored in all three recent home games.
- Brentwood's away both-scored count is 4 of 8.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEastleigh to scoreEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Eastleigh's home wins have generally come with the visitors scoring, making a clean-sheet win unlikely.
- Eastleigh kept 1 clean sheet in 7 home matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Eastleigh's 7 home games.
- Brentwood have scored in half their away matches.
- Eastleigh's home wins were not all accompanied by shutouts.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half goal figures put a combined expectation near one per opening period.
- Eastleigh home first-half total average is 0.86.
- Brentwood away first-half total average is 1.25.
- Eastleigh scored first-half goals in several recent matches.
- Brentwood's recent FA Cup games all had first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring on both sides makes one team failing to score before the break the likely case.
- Eastleigh home first-half goals average is 0.57.
- Brentwood away first-half goals average is 0.375.
- Brentwood average 0.375 first-half goals away.
- Eastleigh concede 0.29 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves produce the bulk of goals for both teams, keeping two or more after the break plausible.
- Eastleigh home second-half total average is 1.86.
- Brentwood away second-half total average is 1.5.
- Eastleigh's last six matches averaged 2.83 total goals.
- Brentwood's second halves against higher-division sides produced goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Recent Form

Eastleigh

L0-2AFC HornchurchOct 10NAT

L1-3WokingOct 3NAT

D1-1SouthendSep 30NAT

L1-4Harrogate TownSep 26NAT

W1-0CarlisleSep 19NAT

L1-2Sutton UtdSep 15NAT

D1-1Boreham WoodSep 12NAT

L1-2AltrinchamSep 4NAT

D1-1Aldershot TownAug 31NAT

W1-0HartlepoolAug 28NAT

W3-2ScunthorpeAug 22NAT

L0-1Kidderminster HarriersAug 15NAT

W2-1GatesheadAug 8NAT

L0-1Farnham TownAug 1FRI

L0-1Crawley TownJul 25FRI

Brentwood Town

L0-3Chatham TownOct 10NON

W3-1Dagenham & RedbridgeOct 3FAC

W2-1WhyteleafeSep 30NON

W5-1Maldon & TiptreeSep 22NON

W3-2AveleySep 19FAC

L2-3Stanway RoversSep 15NON

L1-2Dulwich HamletSep 12NON

W4-2Concord RangersSep 8FAC

D0-0Concord RangersSep 5FAC

L0-2Carshalton AthleticAug 29NON

L1-3Enfield TownAug 22NON

L2-3Eastbourne BoroughAug 15NON

L0-1DartfordAug 11NON

W2-0Burgess Hill TownAug 8NON

L0-5Maidstone UtdJul 28FRI

Squad & Injuries

Eastleigh

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Brentwood Town

22 available

Attackers4

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Eastleigh3Brentwood Town2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Brentwood Town

Yes

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals7 of 10 landed

Recent Form

Eastleigh

Brentwood Town

Squad & Injuries

Eastleigh

Brentwood Town