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Altrincham0FC United of Manchester0

HT 0–0Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 21–5On targetOn target 9–3CornersCorners 11–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Oct 2026, 23:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Altrincham are the clear favourites, two divisions above FC United and with five wins in six home matches, but the visitors have scored 12 goals in three FA Cup wins and beat them 4-1 in a 2023 friendly.

Altrincham to win is quoted at 1.33, and no quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

No confirmed absences for either side in the supplied injury list and no venue concern. Altrincham added striker Leo Farrell on loan on 9 October after an injury in their squad, though the affected player is not named and it is unclear whether Farrell features immediately.

The tie is Altrincham's first match of this season's FA Cup, while FC United have already won three qualifying rounds to reach it. The 3pm kick-off at the J. Davidson Stadium on Saturday 17 October is set, and the winners enter the First Round Proper, where League One and League Two sides join. Altrincham play two divisions above their visitors, so the central question is whether the step-1 side impose their level or the cup run yields an upset.
- Altrincham were drawn at home to FC United of Manchester in the FA Cup fourth qualifying round on 5 October 2026.
- The tie is on Saturday, October 17, 2026 at the J. Davidson Stadium with a 3pm kick-off.
- The winners move into the First Round Proper, where League One and League Two clubs enter.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/BucharestAltrincham FC FA Cup draw articlealtrinchamfc.com · 5 Oct 2026
FC United have scored 12 goals across three FA Cup ties, the latest a 3-0 win away to Worksop Town, a side a division above them. That run sits against a poor league campaign with one win in 12 Northern Premier League games, making the cup their clear strong suit and the reason they arrive with momentum. A one-off tie suits a lower-division side, but the step-3 visitors will face a National League defence far stronger than anything in their qualifying run.
- FC United won 3-0 away at Worksop Town on 3 October 2026 in the third qualifying round, with goals from Jordan Buckley, Michael Donohue and Matthew Grivosti.
- FC United also won 4-1 at home to Ossett United on 19 September 2026 and 5-1 away at Garforth Town on 5 September 2026.
- FC United's record before the fourth qualifying round stood at three FA Cup wins from three and one win from 12 league matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/Bucharest
Grivosti was one of three FC United scorers in the 3-0 win at Worksop Town that sent them into the fourth qualifying round. He belongs to a forward line that has scored 12 goals in this season's competition, which is the clearest evidence of the visitors' threat. A single scoring return is a limited basis for expecting a repeat, and the step up to a National League defence is a much harder test.
- Matthew Grivosti scored FC United's third goal in a 3-0 FA Cup win at Worksop Town on 3 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/BucharestAltrincham FC News tie reportaltrinchamfcnews.co.uk · 7 Oct 2026
The award covers September, when Altrincham climbed into the National League play-off places, and Gibson accepted it publicly on 14 October. It keeps the focus on a side in strong form as they enter the cup against lower-division opposition. The award is retrospective and does not alter selection or playing conditions for Saturday; it is context on the manager's current standing rather than a competitive edge.
- Altrincham manager Neil Gibson took the National League Manager of the Month award for September 2026.
- The award followed a September run that put Altrincham in the National League play-off places.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Oct 2026, 23:16 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Altrincham

1.33fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 75.2%

−14.2ppshort

The two-division gap and Altrincham's strong home record make them clear favourites against a side whose league form is poor.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
The two-division gap and Altrincham's strong home record make them clear favourites against a side whose league form is poor.
- Altrincham are two divisions above FC United (National League vs NPL Premier)
- Altrincham at home: 5 wins, 1 loss, 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per match
- FC United have one win in 12 league matches, though they have won three FA Cup ties
BetBugs · Match WinnerAltrinchamMarket price1.33Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Altrincham have started matches strongly and often lead at the break, though FC United defend well early away.
- Altrincham score 1.17 first-half goals per home match
- Altrincham led at half-time in five of their last six matches
- FC United concede 0.13 first-half goals per away match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerAltrinchamEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC United concede regularly after the break, and Altrincham score second-half goals at home.
- Altrincham score 1.0 second-half goals per home match
- FC United concede 1.25 second-half goals per away match
- FC United conceded after half-time in four of their last six matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerAltrinchamEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The two-division gap and Altrincham's strong home record make them clear favourites against a side whose league form is poor. A level score after 90 minutes is possible given FC United's cup resilience, but neither side has drawn often.
- Altrincham are two divisions above FC United (National League vs NPL Premier)
- Altrincham at home: 5 wins, 1 loss, 2.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per match
- Altrincham have no draws in 13 competitive matches
- FC United have drawn four of 15 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChanceAltrincham or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham have started matches strongly and often lead at the break, though FC United defend well early away. FC United have been hard to break down before half-time away, which keeps an early level score likely.
- Altrincham score 1.17 first-half goals per home match
- Altrincham led at half-time in five of their last six matches
- Altrincham home first half: 1.17 scored and 0.5 conceded per match
- FC United away first half: 1.13 scored and 0.13 conceded per match
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfAltrincham or DrawEstimated chance78%

Goals0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score and concede at rates that point to a game with several goals.
- Altrincham home matches average 3.33 total goals
- FC United away matches average 3.0 total goals
- Altrincham home: both teams scored in 5 of 6 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham usually concede at home and FC United have scored freely in the cup.
- Altrincham home: both teams scored in 5 of 6
- FC United away: both teams scored in 4 of 8
- FC United scored 12 goals across three FA Cup ties
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham have scored at least twice in their recent home games and face a lower-division defence.
- Altrincham score 2.17 goals per home match
- Altrincham scored 2 or more in each of their last three home matches
- FC United concede 1.38 goals per away match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalAltrincham over 1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
FC United's away scoring is modest and they face a higher-division defence, so one goal or fewer is the more likely outcome.
- FC United score 1.63 goals per away match
- Altrincham concede 1.17 goals per home match
- FC United failed to score in two recent away league matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalFC United of Manchester under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham's home matches usually feature an away goal, so keeping FC United out looks unlikely.
- Altrincham have 1 clean sheet in 6 home matches
- FC United have scored in all three FA Cup ties
- Altrincham home: both teams scored in 5 of 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreFC United of Manchester to scoreEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Altrincham's home scoring record makes an FC United clean sheet unlikely.
- FC United have 1 clean sheet in 8 away matches
- Altrincham score 2.17 goals per home match
- Altrincham scored in each of their last six matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreAltrincham to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals have been common in both teams' matches, especially Altrincham's at home.
- Altrincham home first halves average 1.67 goals combined
- FC United away first halves average 1.25 goals combined
- Altrincham led at half-time in five of their last six matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences have been solid before the break, making two first-half goals unlikely.
- FC United conceded only one first-half goal in eight away matches
- Altrincham home first-half goals against average 0.5
- FC United away first-half goals against average 0.13
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves produce goals, with FC United particularly open after the break.
- Altrincham home second halves average 1.67 goals combined
- FC United away second halves average 1.75 goals combined
- FC United concede 1.25 second-half goals per away match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 2W

L4-1United of ManchestervAltrinchamJul 11, 2023FRI

L2-1United of ManchestervAltrinchamNov 27, 2011FA

4 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Altrincham

W3-1Aldershot TownOct 10NAT

L1-3Boreham WoodOct 3NAT

W1-0GatesheadSep 29NAT

W3-0AFC HornchurchSep 26NAT

W2-1AFC FyldeSep 19NAT

W2-1HartlepoolSep 16NAT

L1-5WokingSep 12NAT

W2-1EastleighSep 4NAT

W2-1Forest GreenAug 31NAT

W2-1FC Halifax TownAug 28NAT

L0-1Boston UnitedAug 22NAT

L0-1Sutton UtdAug 15NAT

L1-3SouthendAug 8NAT

W1-0Manchester United U21Jul 31FRI

L2-5MacclesfieldJul 25FRI

FC United of Manchester

D1-1AFC EmleyOct 13NON

D2-2Stockton TownOct 10NON

L0-1Alfreton TownOct 6NON

W3-0Worksop TownOct 3FAC

L0-2Hyde UnitedSep 26FA

W4-1Ossett UnitedSep 19FAC

W4-1Warrington TownSep 12NON

W5-1Garforth TownSep 5FAC

L3-4AvroAug 31NON

L2-3Redcar AthleticAug 29NON

D1-1Bamber BridgeAug 25NON

L1-2WorkingtonAug 22NON

L0-1Hyde UnitedAug 18NON

L0-3Gainsborough TrinityAug 15NON

D1-1Leek TownAug 11NON

Squad & Injuries

Altrincham

24 available

Attackers8

Midfielders7

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

FC United of Manchester

4 available

Attackers2

Midfielders0

Defenders1

Goalkeeper1