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Aluminij KidricevoOlimpija Ljubljana

Fri 16 Oct 2026, 15:3016 Oct, 15:30

14Probabilities4Priced4Edges89%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 06:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Olimpija have won four of the last five meetings with Aluminij, but they arrive at Kidričevo with one away win in five and a 3-3 draw behind them after leading twice by two goals.

The home side rarely score more than once at home, so two prices hold up: at least one team failing to score at 2.05 and not both teams scoring before half-time at 1.22.

Context

No injuries or availability concerns were reported for either side in the 16 October check, and no venue or condition evidence was supplied. The main currents around the game are recent form and the club's public backing of its coach, not a change to the playing conditions.

Olimpija went public on 13 October to reject reports about their coach, saying Jugoslav Trenčovski continues with the squad. The timing matters because it lands three days before the away fixture at Aluminij, and a club answering questions about its bench can shape how a team prepares in the build-up. The denial is the only firm public position available; the reports it answered were not detailed, so the pressure behind the statement cannot be fully verified.
- SiolNET Sportal reported on 13 October that Olimpija rejected media speculation and said coach Jugoslav Trenčovski continues working with the team.
- The statement preceded Olimpija's away league fixture at Aluminij, scheduled three days later.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 06:12 · Europe/Bucharest
The league named Tuci its player of round 11 after he scored twice in the 3-3 draw with Mura, a game Olimpija led by two goals on two occasions. For this fixture it identifies the opponent's most recently effective finisher, and Aluminij will need to account for him. The award covers a single round, and Olimpija still failed to win the match in which Tuci scored twice.
- Prva liga Telemach named Indrit Tuci (Olimpija) player of round 11 on 13 October.
- Tuci scored in the 31st and 52nd minutes of Olimpija's 3-3 draw with Mura on 10 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 06:12 · Europe/Bucharest
Olimpija's most recent league outing ended 3-3 after they led Mura 1-0 at the break and twice by two goals, the equaliser arriving in the 78th minute. That late-game vulnerability is exactly what a home side like Aluminij will try to exploit if the game stays close. It is one match rather than a proven trend, though it followed an earlier 1-0 defeat at Mura in July.
- Prva liga Telemach: Olimpija 3-3 Mura on 10 October; Olimpija led 1-0 at half-time and twice by two goals before Matić equalised in the 78th minute.
- Futbolsloveno's round-11 review described Olimpija again surrendering an advantage and noted they took one point from two games against the second-from-bottom side.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 06:12 · Europe/Bucharest
Olimpija's 1-0 win on 2 August 2026 was their fourth in the last five meetings, with the other drawn, and one goal has separated the sides in three of those five. Aluminij have not beaten Olimpija in the supplied meetings, but the most recent match at Kidričevo, in February 2026, also finished 2-1 to Olimpija, so the margins have been narrow.
- Olimpija Ljubljana 1-0 Aluminij, 1. SNL, 2 August 2026, Ljubljana (most recent of the five supplied meetings).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.91
The read
Olimpija hold the clear recent edge in this fixture and sit slightly higher in the table, but their away record is poor and keeps this from being a strong lean.
- Olimpija have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, drawing the other.
- League positions: Olimpija 5th on 15 points, Aluminij 7th on 13 points.
- Aluminij at home: 1 win, 3 draws, 2 losses with 5 goals in 6 league games.
- Olimpija away: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses with 4 goals in 5 league games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerOlimpija LjubljanaMarket price1.91Estimated chance43%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly and first halves in their games are usually tight.
- Aluminij home first-half averages: 0.25 scored, 0.5 conceded.
- Olimpija away first-half averages: 0.2 scored, 0.4 conceded.
- Aluminij were level at half-time in four of their last six matches.
- Olimpija were level at half-time in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been more open, but the teams trade goals often enough for a level half to be the single most likely result.
- Aluminij home second-half averages: 0.5 scored, 0.5 conceded.
- Olimpija away second-half averages: 0.6 scored, 0.6 conceded.
- Olimpija conceded three second-half goals against Mura.
- Aluminij drew 2-2 at Maribor with both goals in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija hold the clear recent edge in this fixture and sit slightly higher in the table, but their away record is poor and keeps this from being a strong lean. Both sides have struggled to turn tight games into wins, and Aluminij's home matches have often stayed level.
- Olimpija have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, drawing the other.
- League positions: Olimpija 5th on 15 points, Aluminij 7th on 13 points.
- Aluminij have drawn 3 of 6 home league games, including 0-0 with Bravo and 0-0 with Celje at home recently.
- Olimpija have drawn 3 of 11 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or Olimpija LjubljanaEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams start slowly and first halves in their games are usually tight. Olimpija have the stronger squad and have taken first-half leads recently.
- Aluminij home first-half averages: 0.25 scored, 0.5 conceded.
- Olimpija away first-half averages: 0.2 scored, 0.4 conceded.
- Olimpija overall first-half scoring average is 0.36 per game.
- Olimpija led 1-0 at half-time against Mura in their most recent match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or Olimpija LjubljanaEstimated chance78%

Goals9 outcomes · top 89%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both teams' home and away scoring rates are modest, pointing to a low total.
- Aluminij average 0.83 goals scored at home and 1.0 conceded there over 6 home games.
- Olimpija average 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded in 5 away games.
- Aluminij have kept 2 clean sheets in their tracked competitive matches.
- Olimpija have 4 clean sheets in 11 league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 2.5Market price1.95Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
With both attacks producing little on their travels or at home, one side failing to score is the more likely outcome.
- Aluminij home record: 5 goals scored in 6 games.
- Olimpija away record: 4 goals scored in 5 games.
- Both teams scored in 4 of Olimpija's 11 league matches.
- Two of the last five meetings finished with one side failing to score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price2.05Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aluminij rarely score more than once at home and have been blanked in several recent home games.
- Aluminij have 5 goals in 6 home league games.
- Aluminij's recent home matches were 0-0, 0-2 and 0-1.
- Aluminij scored once in three of the last five meetings with Olimpija.
- Home scoring average is 0.83 goals per game.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalAluminij Kidricevo under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija's away scoring has been sparse, and Aluminij keep the occasional clean sheet.
- Olimpija have 4 goals in 5 away league games.
- Olimpija's away record is 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses.
- Aluminij have 2 clean sheets in tracked competitive matches.
- Olimpija failed to score in a 0-0 at Radomlje in their away run.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalOlimpija Ljubljana under 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija usually find a goal on their travels, so Aluminij keeping them out is the less likely outcome.
- Olimpija scored in 4 of their 5 away league games.
- Olimpija have scored in four of the last five meetings with Aluminij.
- Aluminij have only 2 clean sheets in 14 tracked competitive matches.
- Olimpija's recent games include a 3-3 and two 3-goal wins.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreOlimpija Ljubljana to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija's away clean-sheet record is weak and Aluminij generally manage a goal at home.
- Aluminij have scored 5 goals in 6 home league games.
- Olimpija have only 1 clean sheet in 5 away league games.
- Aluminij found the net in three of the last five meetings.
- Olimpija conceded in a 3-3 draw in their most recent match.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreAluminij Kidricevo to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First halves in both teams' recent games have often been goalless.
- Aluminij home first-half averages: 0.25 scored, 0.5 conceded.
- Olimpija away first-half averages: 0.2 scored, 0.4 conceded.
- Only 5 of the last 12 combined recent matches had a first-half goal.
- Aluminij were 0-0 at half-time in four of their last six matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams scoring before half-time is rare given their low first-half output.
- Aluminij home first-half scoring average is 0.25.
- Olimpija away first-half scoring average is 0.2.
- Both teams rarely score before half-time in their recent matches.
- First-half goals in the combined recent sample are infrequent.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.22Estimated chance89%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in these teams' games have been the higher-scoring period.
- Aluminij home second-half averages total about 1.0 goal per game.
- Olimpija away second-half averages total about 1.2 goals per game.
- Olimpija's last three matches produced 5, 1 and 4 second-half goals.
- Olimpija scored 3 second-half goals in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance52%