Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean
Over 8.5
1.91fair 1.67
Market 52.4% · BetBugs 60%
+7.6ppedge
Guatemala generate many corners at home, and Suriname concede corners away, suggesting a high total.
CONCACAF Nations League·Full time·Featured
Predictions graded
Guatemala11 – 0
Suriname0
HT 0–0· · Predictions graded
Predictions8–753%
Edges3–443%
PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 13–8On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 7–3
Quick Take
Pre-match view
Guatemala must win their final Group B game to reach the quarter-finals, while Suriname need only a point for a top-two finish; the sides drew 0-0 in Paramaribo five days ago.
Guatemala are the likelier winners at home, where they beat El Salvador 6-0, but 1.95 on them asks more than that form justifies. Four prices offer something: over 8.5 corners at 1.91, the first half to end level at 2.25, over 2.5 goals at 1.85 and the match to finish drawn at 3.60.
Context
Suriname arrive top on seven points, so a draw all but guarantees them a top-two place and lets them manage the game rather than chase it. Guatemala's four points are the group's tightest squeeze: they carry the best goal difference at +5, yet a draw still leaves them behind Jamaica and outside the top two. Lose, and a win for Martinique or El Salvador could push Guatemala as low as fifth. That asymmetry, one side needing a win and the other able to accept a point, is the biggest single factor shaping how the match will be played.
- Guatemala go into the final Group B matchday on four points and need a win over Suriname to reach the quarter-finals.
- A draw or a defeat could send Guatemala down to League B depending on the other Group B results.
- Suriname top the group on seven points and a draw secures at least second place.
- Jamaica have six points and Honduras, Martinique and El Salvador all have three.
Santis is a regular creator rather than a fringe squad member: he set up the moves for the second and third goals inside the opening 32 minutes against El Salvador before the injury forced him off, and he scored the equaliser in Jamaica. Guatemala managed only two attempts, none on target, in Paramaribo, so removing another attacking option narrows the ways they can break down a Suriname side happy to defend. The counterweight is that the 6-0 was largely built without him on the pitch, so his absence is not automatically decisive.
- Óscar Santis is out of the Suriname match with a muscle injury.
- Santis left the 6-0 win over El Salvador in the first half and missed the trip to Paramaribo.
Fraser, a former Netherlands defender, was appointed for this window and has already won away in Honduras and at home to Martinique, with the Guatemala stalemate the first time his side dropped points. In Paramaribo his team held 61% of the ball and put eight shots on target without scoring, so the same approach returns against opponents who must now come at them. Whether he keeps that proactive shape or protects the draw is the pivotal call for a group leader whose target result is already within reach.
- Henk Fraser took charge of Suriname for this Nations League window.
- Fraser's first two matches brought a 3-2 win away to Honduras and a 2-1 win at home to Martinique.
- The 0-0 draw with Guatemala on 2 October was the first points dropped under Fraser.
Lom scored inside eight minutes against El Salvador, Guatemala's most recent home match at El Trébol, then missed the Paramaribo trip through suspension. His return restores a focal centre-forward to a side that produced almost nothing going forward in the first leg and now has to break down a packed defence. The caveat is that the suspension detail rests on matchday coverage rather than a published disciplinary list, so the reasoning behind his first-leg absence is less settled than his availability now.
- Darwin Lom sat out Guatemala's 0-0 draw in Paramaribo through suspension.
- Lom scored Guatemala's opening goal in the 6-0 win over El Salvador on 28 September.
- Guatemalan matchday previews list Lom among the starters for the Suriname match.
Signal quality track record · Football
High Medium Low
Share of graded picks that landed, per signal quality.
BetBugs edges
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 4
First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean
Draw
2.25fair 1.92
Market 44.4% · BetBugs 52%
+7.6ppedge
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and recent meetings have been level at the break.
Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean
Over 2.5
1.85fair 1.72
Market 54.1% · BetBugs 58%
+3.9ppedge
Both teams have recent matches with multiple goals, and Guatemala's home games have been high-scoring.
Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip
Draw
3.60fair 3.33
Market 27.8% · BetBugs 30%
+2.2ppedge
Suriname can sit deep and protect a point, and the last meeting showed they can keep Guatemala out.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean
Guatemala or Draw
1.30fair 1.32
BetBugs 76% · Market 76.9%
−0.9ppshort
Guatemala have home advantage, must win, and have never lost to Suriname, while their home scoring has been strong. Suriname can sit deep and protect a point, and the last meeting showed they can keep Guatemala out.
1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Lean
Over 0.5 goals in 1st half
1.33fair 1.72
BetBugs 58% · Market 75.2%
−17.2ppshort
Both teams have averaged enough first-half goals to suggest at least one goal before the break.
Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean
Yes
1.78fair 1.82
BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%
−1.2ppshort
Both teams have shown they can score and concede, and Suriname have found the net regularly.
BetBugs probabilities
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
Result5 of 5 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guatemala have home advantage, must win, and have never lost to Suriname, while their home scoring has been strong.
- Guatemala are unbeaten in six meetings with Suriname (3 wins, 3 draws).
- Guatemala average 2.75 goals per home match in four home matches.
- Suriname concede 1.75 goals per away match in eight away matches.
- Guatemala need a win to reach the quarter-finals; Suriname can qualify with a draw.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGuatemalaEstimated chance46%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and recent meetings have been level at the break.
- The last meeting was 0-0 at half-time.
- The previous meeting was also 0-0 at half-time.
- Guatemala average 0.64 first-half goals overall; Suriname average 0.47.
- Both teams concede fewer than 0.6 first-half goals on average.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance52%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Guatemala have been much stronger after half-time at home and may need late goals to win.
- Guatemala average 2.0 second-half goals at home in four matches.
- Suriname concede 1.125 second-half goals away in eight matches.
- Guatemala scored three second-half goals against El Salvador in their last home match.
- Guatemala must win, which may force a strong second-half push.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonGuatemalaEstimated chance42%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Guatemala have home advantage, must win, and have never lost to Suriname, while their home scoring has been strong. Suriname can sit deep and protect a point, and the last meeting showed they can keep Guatemala out.
- Guatemala are unbeaten in six meetings with Suriname (3 wins, 3 draws).
- Guatemala average 2.75 goals per home match in four home matches.
- Three of the six meetings between these teams were draws.
- The most recent meeting on 2 October finished 0-0.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGuatemala or DrawEstimated chance76%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guatemala may start on the front foot at home, but first halves in this fixture have often been tight. Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and recent meetings have been level at the break.
- Guatemala average 0.75 first-half goals at home in four matches.
- Suriname concede 0.625 first-half goals away in eight matches.
- The last meeting was 0-0 at half-time.
- The previous meeting was also 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonGuatemala or DrawEstimated chance80%
Goals1 of 6 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both teams have recent matches with multiple goals, and Guatemala's home games have been high-scoring.
- Guatemala home matches average 4.0 total goals (2.75 for, 1.25 against).
- Suriname away matches average 3.25 total goals (1.5 for, 1.75 against).
- Four of Guatemala's last six matches had at least three goals.
- Suriname's last six matches averaged 3.17 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Both teams have shown they can score and concede, and Suriname have found the net regularly.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Guatemala's 11 competitive matches.
- Both teams scored in 9 of Suriname's 15 competitive matches.
- Suriname scored in five of their last six matches.
- Guatemala conceded in 8 of 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Guatemala have been prolific at home recently and need goals to win the group decider.
- Guatemala scored 2.75 goals per home match in four home matches.
- Guatemala scored at least two goals in each of their last three home matches.
- Suriname conceded 1.75 goals per away match in eight away matches.
- Guatemala must win to advance, which should encourage attacking play.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostGuatemala over 1.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suriname have struggled to score more than once against Guatemala and may not need to chase the game.
- Suriname scored exactly one goal in each of the last two meetings with Guatemala.
- Suriname failed to score in the 0-0 draw on 2 October.
- Guatemala conceded 1.25 goals per home match in four home matches.
- Suriname average 1.33 goals per competitive match overall.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonSuriname under 1.5Estimated chance65%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Both teams have averaged enough first-half goals to suggest at least one goal before the break.
- Guatemala home first-half goals average 0.75; Suriname away first-half goals average 0.75.
- Both teams' combined first-half goal averages are above 0.5 per game.
- Guatemala's overall first-half goals average 0.64, and Suriname's is 0.47.
- Suriname scored two first-half goals in their 3-2 win away to Honduras.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in Guatemala's recent matches have often been high-scoring, especially at home.
- Guatemala home second-half goals average 2.0; Suriname away second-half goals average 0.75.
- Guatemala's last home match produced three second-half goals.
- Suriname's last away match produced one second-half goal.
- Three of Guatemala's last six matches had at least two second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance62%
Match stats2 of 4 landed
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Guatemala generate many corners at home, and Suriname concede corners away, suggesting a high total.
- Guatemala home matches average 10.75 total corners.
- Suriname away matches average 10.57 total corners.
- The 2025-11-19 meeting in Guatemala produced 14 corners.
- Guatemala average 8.75 corners at home.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance60%Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Guatemala take many shots at home, and Suriname allow plenty of shots away, pointing to a high total.
- Guatemala home matches average 21 shots for and 10.5 against.
- Suriname away matches average 9.43 shots for and 16.86 against.
- Guatemala's last home match produced 31 total shots.
- The 2025-11-19 meeting produced 31 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 24.5Estimated chance58%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away splits suggest the combined shots on target could edge over the line.
- Guatemala home matches average 7 shots on target for and 2.5 against.
- Suriname away matches average 4 shots on target for and 5.43 against.
- Guatemala's last home match produced 8 shots on target.
- The 2025-11-19 meeting produced 11 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance53%Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The last match was card-heavy, and the high stakes could lead to a physical decider.
- The most recent meeting produced six yellow cards.
- Guatemala average 1.82 yellow cards; Suriname average 1.57.
- Suriname away matches average 2.14 yellow cards.
- Guatemala must win, which could increase fouls and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance54%
The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees
Head-to-Head
1W · 2D · 0WD0-0SurinamevGuatemalaCON
W3-1GuatemalavSurinameWOR
D1-1SurinamevGuatemalaWOR
Guatemala unbeaten in 3 meetings2 goals/game avg
Recent Form
Guatemala
L1-3CzechiaFRI
L0-7AlgeriaFRI
L0-1CanadaFRI
W3-1SurinameWOR
L2-3PanamaWOR
W1-0El SalvadorWOR
D1-1SurinameWOR
D1-1PanamaWOR
L0-1El SalvadorWOR
L1-2USACON
W3-2GuadeloupeCON
Suriname
L1-2BoliviaWOR
L1-3GuatemalaWOR
W4-0El SalvadorWOR
D1-1PanamaWOR
D1-1GuatemalaWOR
W2-1El SalvadorWOR
D0-0PanamaWOR
D0-0Dominican RepublicCON
L0-2MexicoCON
L3-4Costa RicaCON
D1-1El SalvadorWOR
W1-0Puerto RicoWOR
Squad & Injuries
Guatemala
32 availableAttackers8
Midfielders5
Defenders16
Goalkeeper3
Suriname
22 availableAttackers8
Midfielders3
Defenders8
Goalkeeper3