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Predictions graded

Suriname2Martinique1

HT 0–0Mon 28 Sept 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges1–325%

PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 14–10On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 6–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 18:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Suriname host Martinique after a 3-2 win in Honduras, and the home side should have enough to win this League A group game.

Two quoted prices do offer something: Martinique to avoid defeat (a draw or a Martinique win) at 2.5, and both teams to score 'No' at 1.73. Suriname's 1.53 win price asks more than their form supports.

Context

Fraser won his opening match 3-2 in Honduras on 25 September 2026 after trailing at half-time, and he has described intensity as the area where Suriname still lag behind regional rivals such as Curacao. A coach still installing new ideas may change shape or personnel from game to game, so the starting eleven here is harder to call than the squad list implies. The limit is that one match gives little evidence of a settled style.
- Henk Fraser took charge of Suriname for the first time in the Nations League match away to Honduras on 25 September 2026.
- Suriname recovered from a half-time deficit to win that match 3-2.
- Fraser's earlier club roles include RKC Waalwijk and Sparta Rotterdam.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:58 · Europe/BucharestESPNwww.espn.com · 26 Sep 2026
The squad built for this window mixes first-time additions with senior players returning from long absences around a coach who had never picked a Suriname team before 25 September 2026. At least one reinforcement, Che Nunnely, was added only a day before this fixture, so the group has had very little time working together. That makes the balance between the Netherlands-based contingent and the locally based core genuinely open. It also means Suriname's recent form has to be read against a squad that has barely played as a unit.
- The September and October squad was the first named under head coach Henk Fraser.
- Denilho Cleonise and Shiloh 't Zand were added as first-time call-ups, with Che Nunnely added later in the window.
- Ridgeciano Haps, Justin Lonwijk, Kenneth Paal, Dhoraso Klas, Jonathan Fonkel and Tyrone Conraad returned to the group.
ReportedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:58 · Europe/Bucharest
Martinique conceded three times before the interval in a game where El Salvador ended with ten players, so the margin was built while both sides were at full strength. For this fixture it means the visitors arrive without a point and with a defensive record to repair against a side that has just won away. One result is a thin basis for judging a team that has also changed personnel for this window. The travel involved makes the opening performance harder to separate from logistics.
- Martinique lost 3-1 away to El Salvador on 25 September 2026 in the opening round of the 2026-27 Concacaf Nations League.
- El Salvador finished that match a player down.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 17:58 · Europe/BucharestESPNwww.espn.com · 26 Sep 2026
Those two 1-0 results are the most recent competitive meetings between these sides and both were settled by a single goal, with Martinique failing to score in either. Suriname also kept four clean sheets in their six home matches in the tracked window, so a shutout here is a plausible outcome. The three earlier meetings between the teams, from 2012 to 2024, all ended level, so a narrow or drawn game is not without precedent either.
- 21 March 2025: Suriname 1-0 Martinique, Concacaf Gold Cup qualification
- 25 March 2025: Martinique 0-1 Suriname, the return meeting
- The three meetings before those, from 2012 to 2024, all finished as draws

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

−0.6ppshort

Martinique's low scoring and Suriname's tight home defence point to a game short of three goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Suriname are at home, have beaten Martinique twice this cycle without conceding, and face a side that rarely scores on its travels.
- Suriname at home: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss with 4 clean sheets in 6 matches
- Suriname won both March 2025 meetings with Martinique 1-0
- Martinique away: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses and 0.5 goals scored per match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSurinameEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves have been quiet, making a level score at the break the likeliest outcome.
- Suriname home first halves: 1 goal scored and none conceded in 6 matches
- Martinique have scored no first-half goals in 6 away matches
- Combined first-half averages sit below one goal per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Suriname's home scoring has come almost entirely after the break, giving them the stronger second-half case.
- Suriname average 1.0 second-half goals per home match
- Martinique concede 0.5 second-half goals per away match
- Suriname scored 6 second-half goals across their last 5 matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSurinameEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suriname are at home, have beaten Martinique twice this cycle without conceding, and face a side that rarely scores on its travels. Martinique's away games have often stayed close and low-scoring, which keeps a draw in play.
- Suriname at home: 3 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss with 4 clean sheets in 6 matches
- Suriname won both March 2025 meetings with Martinique 1-0
- Martinique drew 3 of 6 away matches in the window a
- Suriname drew 5 of 15 competitive matches
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSuriname or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Martinique's habit of conceding before half-time away from home gives Suriname a modest first-half edge. Both teams' first halves have been quiet, making a level score at the break the likeliest outcome.
- Suriname average 0.17 first-half goals at home
- Martinique concede 0.67 first-half goals per away match
- Suriname home first halves: 1 goal scored and none conceded in 6 matches
- Martinique have scored no first-half goals in 6 away matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSuriname or DrawEstimated chance83%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Martinique's low scoring and Suriname's tight home defence point to a game short of three goals.
- Suriname home matches average 1.67 goals in total
- Martinique scored 3 goals across their last 6 matches
- Martinique's 13 competitive matches average 1.77 goals combined
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Martinique's away scoring record is thin and Suriname have been hard to break down at home.
- Martinique failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Suriname kept 4 clean sheets in 6 home matches
- Martinique average 0.5 goals per away match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Suriname have rarely scored more than once at home in this window.
- Suriname average 1.17 goals per home match
- Suriname scored 0 or 1 in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Martinique kept 3 clean sheets in 6 away matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSuriname under 1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Suriname do concede regularly, so Martinique managing one goal is slightly more likely than not.
- Suriname conceded 9 goals in 15 competitive matches
- Martinique scored in 6 of 13 competitive matches
- Martinique scored twice in the March 2026 draw with Cuba
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMartinique to scoreEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suriname have found the net in almost every recent match, so Martinique are unlikely to shut them out.
- Suriname scored in 12 of 15 competitive matches
- Suriname scored in each of their last 6 matches
- Martinique conceded 9 goals in their last 6 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSuriname to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent home and away first halves involving these teams have mostly been scoreless.
- Suriname home first halves produced 1 goal in 6 matches
- Martinique have scored no first-half goals in 6 away matches
- Suriname conceded no first-half goals in 6 home matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance53%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have produced corner totals comfortably above this line on average.
- Suriname matches average 9.9 corners combined, 3.75 for and 6.17 against
- Martinique matches average 9.0 corners combined
- Martinique away matches average 9.75 corners combined
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card totals sit above this line on average.
- Suriname matches average 3.0 yellow cards combined, 1.67 for and 1.33 against
- Martinique matches average 3.6 yellow cards combined, 2.14 for and 1.43 against
- Suriname received two yellow cards in their Nations League opener
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot volumes in both teams' matches sit above the line on average.
- Suriname matches average 24.3 total shots, 10.17 for and 14.17 against
- Martinique matches average 25.3 total shots
- Martinique away matches average 29.5 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 23.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined on-target counts hover just above the line, so this is close to a coin flip.
- Suriname matches average 8.2 shots on target combined, 3.75 for and 4.42 against
- Martinique matches average 7.4 shots on target combined
- Suriname's last match produced 9 shots on target combined
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance54%

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W

W0-1MartiniquevSurinameMar 25, 2025CON

W1-0SurinamevMartiniqueMar 21, 2025CON

D1-1SurinamevMartiniqueMar 24, 2024FRI

D0-0MartiniquevSurinameSep 7, 2014CAR

D2-2MartiniquevSurinameSep 10, 2012CAR

Suriname unbeaten in 5 meetingsSuriname: 3 clean sheets1.6 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Suriname

W3-2HondurasSep 26CON

L1-2BoliviaMar 26WOR

L1-3GuatemalaNov 19WOR

W4-0El SalvadorNov 13WOR

D1-1PanamaOct 15WOR

D1-1GuatemalaOct 10WOR

W2-1El SalvadorSep 9WOR

D0-0PanamaSep 4WOR

D0-0Dominican RepublicJun 23CON

L0-2MexicoJun 19CON

L3-4Costa RicaJun 16CON

D1-1El SalvadorJun 11WOR

W1-0Puerto RicoJun 6WOR

W1-0MartiniqueMar 25CON

W1-0MartiniqueMar 21CON

Martinique

L1-3El SalvadorSep 26CON

L0-1El SalvadorMar 29CON

D2-2CubaMar 26CON

L0-2JamaicaFeb 21FRI

D0-0Dominican RepublicNov 18CON

L0-2CubaNov 16CON

L0-1SurinameMar 25CON

L0-1SurinameMar 21CON

D0-0GuadeloupeOct 16CON

W1-0GuadeloupeOct 11CON

D2-2GuyanaSep 9CON

L1-3GuatemalaSep 6CON

D1-1SurinameMar 24FRI

D0-0El SalvadorOct 18CON

W1-0El SalvadorOct 13CON

Squad & Injuries

Suriname

22 available

Attackers5

Midfielders6

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Martinique

21 available

Attackers6

Midfielders3

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Martinique

No

Under 2.5

Suriname

Result5 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Suriname

Martinique

Squad & Injuries

Suriname

Martinique