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Predictions graded

Suriname0Guatemala0

HT 0–0Fri 2 Oct 2026, 22:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges4–450%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 13–2On targetOn target 8–0CornersCorners 5–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 16:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Suriname lead Group B on six points after two wins under Henk Fraser, while Guatemala travel without the injured Óscar Santis and suspended Darwin Lom — though Guatemala won the most recent meeting 3-1.

Three prices offer something: no goal in the first half at 2.9, over 8.5 corners at 2.1 and a level first half at 2.2. The short prices on a Suriname win (2.15) and both teams scoring (1.73) do not.

Context

Santis started on the right of Guatemala's attack and came off after helping build a three-goal half-time lead against El Salvador, so his absence removes a first-choice wide option and a supply line into the front two. The roughly three-week recovery window covers both matches against Suriname rather than just the opener. The counterpoint is that Guatemala scored three more goals after he went off, so the 6-0 result was not built on him alone.
- Guatemala's medical assessment identified a left biceps femoris muscle injury with no tear and a recovery period of about three weeks.
- Santis came off during the 6-0 win over El Salvador and is left out of the group named for the two Suriname games.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 16:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Playing the same opponent twice inside five days turns the pairing into a four-point swing at the top of the group rather than a single result, and Suriname's three-point cushion means a flat first leg costs them little ground. The return in Guatemala also gives the first meeting a second-leg dimension, so how each side manages the game in Paramaribo carries into Monday. The qualification picture is compressed behind Suriname, with four teams level on three points, so one result will not settle the group.
- Suriname and Guatemala are scheduled to meet on 2 October in Paramaribo and again on 5 October in Guatemala.
- Suriname sit top of Group B on six points after winning both opening matches.
- Guatemala, Jamaica, Honduras and El Salvador all hold three points from two games, with Martinique on none.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 16:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Lom was both starting and scoring in Guatemala's most recent match, so his removal is a forced change at the top of the attack rather than a rotation. It arrives alongside Santis's injury, leaving Luis Fernando Tena to rebuild the front line for the first of two meetings with Suriname in five days. The replacements are domestic-league forwards without established roles in this window, so the attacking shape in Paramaribo may differ from the El Salvador game.
- Darwin Lom is out of Guatemala's group for Suriname through a card-accumulation suspension.
- Lom started and scored in the eighth minute of the 6-0 win over El Salvador.
- Jesús López and José Bolaños joined the squad for the fixture in his place.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 16:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Fajardo's hat-trick came in the same match that ended Santis's window through injury, so he is the obvious player to keep in the positions he scored from while Lom's suspension forces further change. That gives Tena a reason to build the front line around him rather than start again from scratch. The caution is that the three goals came against an El Salvador side already being overrun late on, so the challenge in Paramaribo is different in kind.
- William Fajardo scored a hat-trick in Guatemala's 6-0 win over El Salvador.
- Guatemala led 3-0 at half-time through Darwin Lom, Rubio Rubín and Fajardo, then added three more after the break.
- Fajardo plays his club football for Antigua GFC.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 16:08 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Suriname's strong home record and Fraser's winning start give them a slight edge, especially with Guatemala missing two attackers.
- Suriname are 3W-2D-1L in their last six home matches, conceding 0.67 goals per game.
- Henk Fraser has won both of his first two matches as Suriname coach.
- Guatemala are without injured Óscar Santis and suspended Darwin Lom.
- The last meeting in Paramaribo finished 1-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSurinameEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
First halves in Suriname's home games are typically low-scoring, and both recent meetings were level at the break.
- Suriname average 0.17 first-half goals for and 0.00 against at home.
- Guatemala average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.67 against away.
- Both 2025 meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
- Suriname's overall first-half total is 0.8 goals per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been more open, but the teams are closely matched after the break.
- Suriname's home second-half total is 1.84 goals.
- Guatemala's away second-half total is 1.66 goals.
- The 2025 Paramaribo meeting was 1-1 after half-time.
- Suriname concede 0.67 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Suriname's strong home record and Fraser's winning start give them a slight edge, especially with Guatemala missing two attackers. Both teams have shown they can cancel each other out, and Suriname's home matches often stay tight.
- Suriname are 3W-2D-1L in their last six home matches, conceding 0.67 goals per game.
- Henk Fraser has won both of his first two matches as Suriname coach.
- The 2025 meeting in Paramaribo finished 1-1.
- Suriname have drawn two of their last six home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSuriname or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Suriname rarely lead at half-time at home, but Guatemala concede some first-half goals. First halves in Suriname's home games are typically low-scoring, and both recent meetings were level at the break.
- Suriname score 0.17 first-half goals per home match.
- Guatemala concede 0.67 first-half goals per away match.
- Suriname average 0.17 first-half goals for and 0.00 against at home.
- Guatemala average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.67 against away.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonSuriname or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Guatemala's away games have produced goals, and the last meeting had four, but Suriname's home defense is tight.
- Guatemala's away matches average 3.0 total goals.
- Suriname's overall matches average 2.6 total goals.
- The two 2025 meetings produced totals of 2 and 4 goals.
- Suriname's home matches average 2.0 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Both teams have scored regularly, and the recent head-to-heads featured goals for each side.
- Guatemala's away matches have seen both teams score in 5 of 6.
- Suriname's overall matches have seen both teams score in 9 of 15.
- Both 2025 meetings had both teams scoring.
- Suriname scored in 12 of their 15 overall matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Suriname have not conceded a first-half goal at home in their last six, and their home games rarely feature early goals.
- Suriname average 0.17 first-half goals for and 0.00 against at home.
- Suriname have kept first-half clean sheets in all six home matches.
- Guatemala average 0.67 first-half goals against away.
- Both 2025 meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Suriname have not conceded a first-half goal at home and rarely score before the break.
- Suriname average 0.17 first-half goals at home.
- Suriname have not conceded a first-half goal at home in six matches.
- Guatemala average 0.67 first-half goals away.
- Both 2025 meetings were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in these teams' matches tend to produce goals.
- Suriname's home second-half total is 1.84 goals.
- Guatemala's away second-half total is 1.66 goals.
- The 2025 meetings produced 2 and 4 second-half goals.
- Suriname's overall second-half total is 1.8 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Overall corner counts and the recent head-to-head point to a total above 8.5.
- Suriname's overall corner total is 10.08 per match.
- Guatemala's overall corner total is 8.73 per match.
- The 2025 meetings had corner totals of 14 and 9.
- Suriname's home corner total is 9.5 per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shot averages are near the line and the last meeting in Guatemala had 31 shots.
- Suriname's overall shot total is 24.31 per match.
- Guatemala's overall shot total is 26.09 per match.
- The 2025 meetings had shot totals of 22 and 31.
- Guatemala's away shot total is 23.0 per match.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 24.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Overall shots on target averages are close to the line, and the last meeting had 11.
- Guatemala's overall shots on target total is 8.27 per match.
- Suriname's overall shots on target total is 8.15 per match.
- The 2025 meetings had shots on target totals of 11 and 7.
- Suriname's home shots on target total is 6.67 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The direct meetings were low on cards, and Suriname's home games rarely reach four.
- The 2025 meetings had card totals of 2 and 2.
- Suriname's home card total is 1.83 per match.
- Suriname's overall card total is 2.77 per match.
- Guatemala's overall card total is 3.73 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

L3-1GuatemalavSurinameNov 19, 2025WOR

D1-1SurinamevGuatemalaOct 10, 2025WOR

3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Suriname

W2-1MartiniqueSep 28CON

W3-2HondurasSep 26CON

L1-2BoliviaMar 26WOR

L1-3GuatemalaNov 19WOR

W4-0El SalvadorNov 13WOR

D1-1PanamaOct 15WOR

D1-1GuatemalaOct 10WOR

W2-1El SalvadorSep 9WOR

D0-0PanamaSep 4WOR

D0-0Dominican RepublicJun 23CON

L0-2MexicoJun 19CON

L3-4Costa RicaJun 16CON

D1-1El SalvadorJun 11WOR

W1-0Puerto RicoJun 6WOR

W1-0MartiniqueMar 25CON

Guatemala

W6-0El SalvadorSep 29CON

L2-3JamaicaSep 26CON

L0-3EcuadorJun 7FRI

L1-3CzechiaJun 5FRI

L0-7AlgeriaMar 27FRI

L0-1CanadaJan 18FRI

W3-1SurinameNov 19WOR

L2-3PanamaNov 14WOR

W1-0El SalvadorOct 15WOR

D1-1SurinameOct 10WOR

D1-1PanamaSep 9WOR

L0-1El SalvadorSep 5WOR

L1-2USAJul 2CON

W3-2GuadeloupeJun 24CON

L0-1PanamaJun 21CON

Squad & Injuries

Suriname

22 available

Attackers8

Midfielders3

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Guatemala

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders15

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Over 8.5

Draw

No

Suriname or Draw

Yes

Over 2.5

Suriname

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Suriname

Guatemala

Squad & Injuries

Suriname

Guatemala