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Predictions graded

Aruba3Anguilla2

HT 1–1Sun 4 Oct 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–473%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 76%–24%ShotsShots 28–9On targetOn target 8–3CornersCorners 9–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 20:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Aruba beat Anguilla 2-0 five days ago and the two meet again, with Anguilla having scored in only one of their last six matches.

Aruba look the likelier winners, but at 1.05 that outcome is not worth backing. Five quoted prices do hold up: both teams not to score at 1.62, under 2.5 goals at 5.25, level at half-time at 4.5, no first-half goals at 6 and a draw at 15.

Context

Aruba took the previous Nations League meeting between these teams 2-0 on 29 September 2026, with Rovien Ostiana scoring in the 53rd minute and Justin Figaroa in the 88th. Because the same two sides meet again five days later in the same competition, that match is the most direct recent reference point for this rematch. Both goals arrived after half-time and the game was staged at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium in Antigua, so it was not played in either nation's home ground, which weakens the usual home-side reading of the result. The two-goal margin is the only directly evidenced gap between the teams so far.
- Aruba won the CONCACAF Nations League meeting with Anguilla 2-0 on 29 September 2026.
- Rovien Ostiana scored in the 53rd minute and Justin Figaroa in the 88th.
- The match was played at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium in Antigua.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 20:36 · Europe/BucharestAnguilla vs Aruba match pagefunstats.fyi · 29 Sep 2026
Anguilla come into this rematch on the back of a match in which they barely got near the opposition goal.
Anguilla's newest match is a 3-0 home defeat by Antigua and Barbuda on 1 October 2026, with five shots to 43 faced, none on target, and 16 corners conceded. One match is not a settled rate, but it shows how little Anguilla create and how much defending they face. Aruba have been hard to score against, so a blank afternoon for Anguilla is the likeliest single outcome.
- Anguilla 0-3 Antigua and Barbuda, CONCACAF Nations League, 1 October 2026 (Anguilla at home).
- Shots: Anguilla 5, Antigua and Barbuda 43; shots on target 0-15.
- Corners: Anguilla 4, Antigua and Barbuda 16.
Aruba are the hosts on the listing, and that side of their record is the weakest part of their file.
Aruba are listed as the home side here, and across the seven matches logged with them as hosts they have three wins, four defeats and no draw (10 September 2024 to 23 September 2026). Shot data covers five of those games, where Aruba average 8.6 shots to 15.8 conceded. It is the clearest counterweight to their five-match winning run, though it is one team's window rather than a settled home profile.
- Aruba as the home side, 10 September 2024 to 23 September 2026: 7 matches, 3 wins, 0 draws, 4 defeats.
- Goals across those 7 matches: 1.43 scored and 1.71 conceded per match.
- Shot data for 5 of those matches: 8.6 shots and 3.0 corners for Aruba, 15.8 shots and 5.2 corners against.
Anguilla's attack has produced something only rarely, and this is the clearest recent example.
Anguilla's 3-1 CONCACAF Series win away to Bahamas on 26 March 2026 is the clearest recent example of their attack producing: they were level at 1-1 at half-time and scored twice after the break. It is a single result, and the surrounding record is what makes a repeat unlikely against Aruba. Treat it as evidence that a goal is not impossible, not as a sign of a sustained scoring threat.
- Bahamas 1-3 Anguilla, CONCACAF Series, 26 March 2026 (Anguilla away).
- Half-time score 1-1; Anguilla scored two second-half goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aruba are in strong recent form and have already beaten Anguilla convincingly this week, while Anguilla have struggled badly in recent matches.
- Aruba won the most recent H2H 2-0 away on 29 Sep 2026.
- Aruba's last 6 matches: 5 wins, 1 draw, 14 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- Anguilla's last 6 matches: 1 win, 5 losses, 3 goals scored, 19 conceded.
- Aruba home split: 3 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses in 7 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArubaEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aruba often score early while Anguilla tend to concede in the first half.
- Aruba scored first-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Anguilla conceded first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Aruba's first-half goals for average is 0.85.
- Anguilla's first-half goals against average is 1.78.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostArubaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aruba frequently score after half-time, and Anguilla often concede in the second half.
- Aruba scored second-half goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Anguilla conceded second-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Aruba's second-half goals for average is 0.69.
- Anguilla's second-half goals against average is 1.44.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonArubaEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aruba are in strong recent form and have already beaten Anguilla convincingly this week, while Anguilla have struggled badly in recent matches. A draw is possible if Aruba are wasteful, but Anguilla's poor record makes it unlikely.
- Aruba won the most recent H2H 2-0 away on 29 Sep 2026.
- Aruba's last 6 matches: 5 wins, 1 draw, 14 goals scored, 2 conceded.
- Aruba have drawn 2 of 13 competitive matches overall.
- Anguilla have drawn 0 of 9 competitive matches overall.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAruba or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aruba often score early while Anguilla tend to concede in the first half. Many of Aruba's matches are level at the break, and the recent H2H was 0-0 at half-time.
- Aruba scored first-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Anguilla conceded first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Aruba were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Anguilla were level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonAruba or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have often seen three or more goals, and Anguilla concede heavily.
- Aruba's last 6 matches produced 16 total goals (14 for, 2 against).
- Anguilla's last 6 matches produced 22 total goals (3 for, 19 against).
- H2H on 29 Sep 2026 had 2 goals (0-2).
- Aruba home matches average 3.14 total goals (1.43 for, 1.71 against).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Anguilla's attack is very weak and Aruba have been defensively solid, so a clean sheet for Aruba is likely.
- Anguilla failed to score in 7 of 9 competitive matches.
- Aruba kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Anguilla have scored 5 goals in 9 competitive matches overall.
- H2H on 29 Sep 2026: Aruba 2-0 Anguilla.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aruba have scored at least twice in most of their recent games and face a weak Anguilla defence.
- Aruba scored 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Aruba scored 2 goals in the H2H on 29 Sep 2026.
- Aruba's home average goals for is 1.43.
- Anguilla conceded 3.5 goals per away match on average.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonAruba over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Anguilla's scoring output is very low and Aruba's defence has been strong.
- Anguilla scored 1 or 0 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Anguilla's away average goals for is 0.83.
- Aruba conceded only 2 goals in their last 6 matches.
- H2H on 29 Sep 2026: Anguilla scored 0.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostAnguilla under 1.5Estimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals have been common in both teams' recent matches, especially with Anguilla conceding early.
- Aruba's last 6 matches: 4 had at least one first-half goal.
- Anguilla's last 6 matches: 5 had at least one first-half goal.
- Aruba's first-half goals for average is 0.85.
- Anguilla's first-half goals against average is 1.78.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves in both teams' recent matches have often produced multiple goals.
- Aruba's last 6 matches: 4 had 2 or more second-half goals.
- Anguilla's last 6 matches: 4 had 2 or more second-half goals.
- H2H on 29 Sep 2026 had 2 second-half goals.
- Aruba's second-half goals for average is 0.69; Anguilla's second-half goals against average is 1.44.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent corner counts are high, and the H2H produced double the line.
- H2H on 29 Sep 2026 had 10 corners (Aruba 8, Anguilla 2).
- Aruba's matches average 8.33 total corners (3.22 for, 5.11 against).
- Anguilla's matches average 11.8 total corners (1.6 for, 10.2 against).
- Anguilla conceded 16 corners in their most recent match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches regularly feature many shots, and Anguilla concede a huge volume.
- H2H on 29 Sep 2026 had 31 total shots (Aruba 26, Anguilla 5).
- Aruba's matches average 24.78 total shots (10.22 for, 14.56 against).
- Anguilla's matches average 35.4 total shots (4.4 for, 31 against).
- Anguilla conceded 43 shots in their most recent match.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 14.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Aruba create plenty of chances and Anguilla concede many shots on target.
- H2H on 29 Sep 2026 had 9 shots on target (Aruba 8, Anguilla 1).
- Aruba's matches average 8.78 shots on target (3.11 for, 5.67 against).
- Anguilla's matches average 12.2 shots on target (0.8 for, 11.4 against).
- Anguilla conceded 15 shots on target in their most recent match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Card counts have been low in the direct H2H and in Anguilla's matches, making under 3.5 the more likely outcome.
- H2H on 29 Sep 2026 had 2 total cards.
- Anguilla's matches average 2.0 total cards.
- Aruba's matches average 4.23 total cards.
- Aruba received one red card in their last four matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W0-2AnguillavArubaSep 29, 2026CON

2 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Aruba

W2-0AnguillaSep 29CON

W1-0Antigua and BarbudaSep 23CON

L0-4CuraçaoJun 7FRI

W4-1LiechtensteinMar 29FIF

W4-1MacauMar 26FIF

W3-0BarbadosNov 15CON

D0-0Antigua and BarbudaNov 12CON

L0-5HaitiJun 7WOR

D1-1BarbadosJun 4WOR

W2-1CambodiaMar 25FRI

L0-1Sint MaartenNov 18CON

L1-5Puerto RicoNov 16CON

L3-5HaitiOct 15CON

L1-3HaitiOct 12CON

L0-1Puerto RicoSep 10CON

Anguilla

L0-3Antigua and BarbudaOct 1CON

L0-2ArubaSep 29CON

L0-5Antigua and BarbudaSep 26CON

L0-1DominicaSep 21FRI

L0-4British Virgin IslandsMar 29CON

W3-1BahamasMar 26CON

L0-4Cayman IslandsNov 16CON

W2-1BahamasNov 12CON

W2-1Saint MartinNov 9FRI

L0-3El SalvadorJun 7WOR

L0-6St. Vincent / GrenadinesJun 4WOR

L0-2GrenadaMay 31FRI

L2-4St. Kitts and NevisMay 24FRI

L1-2Saint MartinMay 24FRI

W1-0British Virgin IslandsApr 20FRI

Squad & Injuries

Aruba

32 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper5

Anguilla

21 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Aruba3Anguilla2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Draw

No

Under 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 of 5 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Aruba

Anguilla

Squad & Injuries

Aruba

Anguilla