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Predictions graded

North Macedonia0Scotland2

HT 0–1Sat 3 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions10–471%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 9–25On targetOn target 0–10CornersCorners 1–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Sep 2026, 18:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Two sides who have not scored a goal in this Nations League campaign meet in Skopje, with Scotland also missing suspended defender Jack Hendry.

Scotland's away defence makes them the likelier winners, but 1.75 is more than that case is worth. The two prices that hold up are both teams to score – No at 1.67 and a level first half at 2.15.

Context

Hendry was dismissed in the 11th minute for denying a goalscoring opportunity, and Switzerland scored directly from the free-kick that followed. A red card in a Nations League fixture carries an automatic one-match ban, so Pocognoli must rebuild the back line for the trip to Skopje rather than choose between the same defenders. The change lands on a defence that had only a few days of work under a new coaching staff, although Scotland did keep Switzerland to a single goal until the 55th minute while a man down.
- Hendry was shown a red card around the 11th minute of Scotland's home match against Switzerland on 29 September after a VAR review upgraded a yellow card for denying a goalscoring opportunity.
- Switzerland scored the resulting free-kick through Ricardo Rodríguez and went on to win 3-0, leaving Scotland to play roughly 79 minutes with ten men.
- Reports of the sending-off were carried by Football Insider, IRN Radio News and a match summary citing BBC and Guardian reporting.
- J. Hendry started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 371 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest
North Macedonia have lost both opening matches without scoring and sit bottom of League B Group 1, so the home fixture is their first realistic route to points in this window. Scotland arrive with one point and no goals of their own, which is why the trip is being described as must-win rather than merely useful. Switzerland's six points mean neither side can afford a further slip if they want to stay near the top two. Both teams have had four days since defeat, so recovery and selection work carry weight alongside the standings.
- Switzerland have taken six points from six, winning 3-0 in North Macedonia on 26 September and 3-0 at Hampden on 29 September.
- North Macedonia are bottom of League B Group 1 without a point, following the home defeat by Switzerland with a 2-0 loss in Slovenia on 29 September.
- Scotland have one point from a 0-0 draw in Slovenia and are described as facing a must-win game in Skopje on Saturday.
- North Macedonia's own domestic-language match review noted they are last without points and next host Scotland in Skopje.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest
Pocognoli replaced Steve Clarke after the World Cup and used his maiden squad to introduce seven uncapped players, so the group in Skopje is materially different from the one that played at the finals. Two matches in, Scotland have taken one point and scored no goals, and the players themselves describe a squad still adjusting to unfamiliar instructions. The only away fixture of the regime so far produced a 0-0 draw in Slovenia, which is the sole reference point for how this Scotland side sets up on the road. With only four days between matches, the scope for fresh work on the training pitch is limited.
- Pocognoli's first Scotland squad, named on 15 September, included seven uncapped players.
- His opening two matches produced a 0-0 draw in Slovenia on 26 September and a 3-0 home defeat by Switzerland on 29 September.
- Nathan Patterson said on 30 September that the squad are still learning each other under the new ideas and that the reset will not happen overnight.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest
The sequence began after McGinn scored against Haiti and has continued through two World Cup matches and two Nations League fixtures, putting Scotland 25 minutes away from the longest goalless run in their 154-year history. A goal inside that window in Skopje keeps the existing mark intact; a slow start would set a new one. The run is not a clean measure of the attack, because roughly 79 minutes of it were played with ten men after Hendry's dismissal against Switzerland. North Macedonia have their own scoring problem, having failed to score in either group match.
- Scotland have not scored since John McGinn's goal in the 28th minute of their World Cup opener against Haiti in Boston, a run of 422 minutes across matches against Morocco, Brazil, Slovenia and Switzerland.
- The Scottish Sun reports the record stands at 447 minutes, set between November 1970 and May 1971.
- The only other time Scotland went four matches without scoring came 55 years ago.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Sep 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.67fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 59.9%

−3.9ppshort

Both teams have struggled badly for goals and Scotland's away matches have been low-scoring.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.75
The read
Scotland's away defence has been dependable and the hosts have yet to score in the group.
- Scotland's competitive away record in the window is 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss with four clean sheets in five
- North Macedonia are bottom of the group with no points and no goals from two matches
- Scotland held Slovenia to a 0-0 draw, a side that beat North Macedonia 2-0
- North Macedonia have conceded 1.9 goals per game across their competitive window
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonScotlandEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.15
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring averages are very low, favouring a level interval.
- North Macedonia average 0.2 first-half goals at home and 0.6 against
- Scotland average 0.4 first-half goals away and 0.2 against
- Four of North Macedonia's last six matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves are the likelier scoring period for both, but neither side converts often enough to strongly favour a winner.
- North Macedonia average 0.7 second-half goals overall and 1.3 conceded
- Scotland average 0.9 second-half goals overall and 0.8 conceded
- Scotland's away block averages 0.6 second-half goals for and 0.4 against
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring averages are very low, favouring a level interval. Scotland's matches have tended to feature first-half goals, though they have scored very few themselves.
- North Macedonia average 0.2 first-half goals at home and 0.6 against
- Scotland average 0.4 first-half goals away and 0.2 against
- Scotland's last six matches produced six first-half goals in total
- North Macedonia's last six matches produced six first-half goals in total
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or ScotlandEstimated chance78%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Both teams have struggled badly for goals and Scotland's away matches have been low-scoring.
- Scotland have gone 422 minutes without a goal
- North Macedonia have scored 0 goals in two Nations League matches
- Scotland's two most recent away matches finished 0-0 and 1-0
- Scotland's away block averages 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Recent matches for both sides have usually ended with at least one team kept off the scoresheet.
- North Macedonia and Scotland have each scored 0 goals in two Nations League matches
- North Macedonia have failed to score in four of their last six matches
- Scotland have failed to score in four consecutive matches
- Scotland have kept four clean sheets in five competitive away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts have conceded regularly at home and Scotland have found a way to score in several away games.
- North Macedonia have kept one clean sheet in five competitive home matches
- North Macedonia conceded 3 goals at home to Switzerland in their last home match
- Scotland have scored in three of their five competitive away matches
- North Macedonia concede 1.2 goals per game in their home block
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonScotland to scoreEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and Scotland's missing defender give North Macedonia a realistic route to a goal.
- North Macedonia scored in two of their last six matches
- North Macedonia average 1.6 goals per game in their home block
- Scotland have conceded three or more in two of their last six matches
- Scotland are without suspended defender Jack Hendry
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNorth Macedonia to scoreEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have averaged a goal before half-time, making a first-half goal marginally more likely than not.
- Scotland's last six matches produced six first-half goals
- North Macedonia's last six matches produced six first-half goals
- Scotland have conceded first-half goals in three of their last five matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have gone long spells without a second-half goal, pointing to a quiet closing period.
- Scotland have not scored in the second half of their last four matches
- Scotland's away block averages 0.6 second-half goals scored
- North Macedonia have failed to score after the break in their last four matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have regularly produced around ten corners.
- North Macedonia's matches average 9.9 corners
- North Macedonia concede 6.9 corners per game
- Scotland's matches average 10.1 corners
- Scotland's away matches average 4.2 corners for and 6.0 against
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have consistently produced well over twenty total shots.
- North Macedonia's matches average 24.6 total shots
- North Macedonia concede 16 shots per game
- Scotland's away matches average 24.4 total shots
- Scotland's last six matches averaged 25.2 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 19.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined shots on target in both teams' recent matches sit above the line.
- North Macedonia's home matches average 8.8 shots on target combined
- Scotland's away matches average 8.0 shots on target combined
- North Macedonia concede 5.8 shots on target per game
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Card totals in both teams' recent matches have typically been modest.
- North Macedonia average 2.6 yellows and Scotland 1.7 per game
- Five of Scotland's last six matches produced four cards or fewer
- Four of North Macedonia's last six matches produced four cards or fewer
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	North Macedonia Relegation	2	0	0	2	0-5	0	LL
3	Scotland Relegation Playoffs	2	0	1	1	0-3	1	LD

1pt gap between teamsNorth Macedonia in relegation zoneScotland in relegation zone

Recent Form

North Macedonia

L0-2SloveniaSep 29UEF

L0-3SwitzerlandSep 26UEF

L0-4TürkiyeJun 1FRI

D0-0Bosnia & HerzegovinaMay 29FRI

D0-0Rep. Of IrelandMar 31FRI

L0-4DenmarkMar 26WOR

L1-7WalesNov 18WOR

D0-0LatviaNov 13FRI

D1-1KazakhstanOct 13WOR

D0-0BelgiumOct 10WOR

W5-0LiechtensteinSep 7WOR

L1-2Saudi ArabiaSep 4FRI

W1-0KazakhstanJun 9WOR

D1-1BelgiumJun 6WOR

D1-1WalesMar 25WOR

Scotland

L0-3SwitzerlandSep 29UEF

D0-0SloveniaSep 26UEF

L0-3BrazilJun 24WOR

L0-1MoroccoJun 19WOR

W1-0HaitiJun 14WOR

W4-0BoliviaJun 6FRI

W4-1CuraçaoMay 30FRI

L0-1Ivory CoastMar 31FRI

L0-1JapanMar 28FRI

W4-2DenmarkNov 18WOR

L2-3GreeceNov 15WOR

W2-1BelarusOct 12WOR

W3-1GreeceOct 9WOR

W2-0BelarusSep 8WOR

D0-0DenmarkSep 5WOR

Squad & Injuries

North Macedonia

24 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Scotland

23 available

Attackers4

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Draw

Under 2.5

Scotland

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Match stats3 of 4 landed

League Table

Recent Form

North Macedonia

Scotland

Squad & Injuries

North Macedonia

Scotland