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Predictions graded

Slovenia2North Macedonia0

HT 0–0Tue 29 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 16–10On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 09:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Slovenia, with Benjamin Šeško reported out for the window, have not won in nine competitive matches; North Macedonia have the better recent record but lost 0-4 in Denmark and 1-7 in Wales on their travels.

A draw is the likeliest result and goals look scarce. The 1.57 for North Macedonia to be level or ahead at half-time and 2.20 for draw-or-North Macedonia stand up; North Macedonia to win at 5.00 is the longer shot.

Context

Slovenia's forward Benjamin Šeško has withdrawn from the Nations League squad with a shin problem and, per the national daily Delo, will sit out the entire four-match cycle that contains this fixture; SuperSport Blitz reported the same withdrawal and named the Scotland, North Macedonia and Switzerland games. Slovenia's first two matches are both at home, so there is no earlier fixture in which he could be eased back before the North Macedonia visit, and the attack used on 29 September will be the one assembled without him. Neither the Slovenian federation nor his club has stated how serious the injury is or when he might return, so the length of the absence beyond this window is unresolved.
- Delo reported on 23 September that Benjamin Šeško will miss the four-match Nations League cycle of the Slovenian national team.
- SuperSport Blitz reported on 22 September that the striker withdrew from Slovenia's Nations League squad with a shin injury and would miss the matches against Scotland, North Macedonia and Switzerland.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:08 · Europe/Bucharest
North Macedonia go into their first League B campaign with Sedloski's set-up unresolved, and the squad analysis expects a back five with the front line the open question. That is relevant to this fixture because a lone centre-forward gives Slovenia's defenders one reference point to handle, while a Miovski-Rastoder pairing would add a second runner and change how the away side attacks. The reading comes from a single analysis rather than from Sedloski or the Macedonian federation, and it projects the whole autumn rather than this match, so the shape used in Ljubljana could differ.
- Passport Soccer's squad analysis, published 21 September, said Sedloski is likely to use a back five this autumn.
- The same analysis said the open question is whether he uses one or two centre-forwards, naming Bojan Miovski and Elmin Rastoder as the possible pairing.
To watchSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 09:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Six draws is the dominant note: Slovenia have been level far more often than beaten, and they kept three clean sheets across the same run. Four goals in nine matches is the smaller number in the picture, and their four competitive home matches in that window brought two draws and two defeats.
- Slovenia's nine competitive matches from 14 November 2024 to 18 November 2025: 0 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats.
- They scored four goals and conceded six in that sample, with three clean sheets.
- In four competitive home matches in the same window they had two draws and two defeats, averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.
All 11 goals North Macedonia conceded on the road in that sample came in those two matches; the other three away games ended in clean sheets for them, so the away picture is extreme rather than consistently poor. That is also the part of their record that offers Slovenia, who have scored only four goals in nine competitive matches, their clearest opening.
- North Macedonia's five competitive away matches from 22 March 2025 to 26 March 2026: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, with three clean sheets.
- They conceded 11 goals in that sample, averaging 2.2 per away match.
- A 0-4 defeat in Denmark on 26 March 2026 and a 1-7 defeat in Wales on 18 November 2025 account for all 11 of those goals.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both sides draw often and neither scores freely, so a level match is the single most likely outcome.
- Six of Slovenia's last nine competitive matches were draws
- Slovenia drew two of their last four competitive home matches
- North Macedonia have four draws in their last ten competitive matches
- The 2019 meeting in Slovenia finished 1-1 and the last three meetings produced two draws
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.15
The read
Neither side scores early often, and goalless first halves are the most common pattern for both teams.
- Three of Slovenia's last six competitive first halves finished 0-0
- Three of North Macedonia's last six competitive first halves finished 0-0
- Slovenia have scored no first-half goals in their last six competitive matches
- North Macedonia average 0.5 first-half goals per competitive match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves between these teams are often level, and Slovenia's matches overall are dominated by draws.
- Slovenia's last six competitive second halves: 1-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 2-1
- North Macedonia's last six competitive second halves: 0-4, 0-4, 1-1, 0-0, 4-0, 0-0
- Slovenia have drawn six of their last nine competitive matches
- Slovenia's second-half goals-against average is 0.56
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance41%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Neither side scores early often, and goalless first halves are the most common pattern for both teams. Slovenia have been behind at the break regularly while North Macedonia have taken early leads in several recent games.
- Three of Slovenia's last six competitive first halves finished 0-0
- Three of North Macedonia's last six competitive first halves finished 0-0
- Slovenia conceded 0.89 first-half goals per competitive match
- Slovenia trailed at half-time in three of their last six competitive matches
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or North MacedoniaEstimated chance87%

Goals4 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Slovenia rarely score more than once and North Macedonia's away goals come mostly against much weaker opposition.
- Slovenia have scored four goals in nine competitive matches (0.56 per game)
- Slovenia's last six competitive matches produced 2, 2, 0, 0, 3 and 4 total goals
- North Macedonia's competitive record includes five clean sheets in ten matches
- North Macedonia average one goal per competitive away match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
At least one side failing to score is the more likely outcome given Slovenia's sparse scoring and North Macedonia's clean-sheet record.
- Slovenia have scored four goals in nine competitive matches
- Slovenia failed to score in four of their last six competitive matches
- North Macedonia's competitive record includes five clean sheets
- North Macedonia were kept out by Belgium and Denmark in their most recent away qualifiers
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Slovenia have not managed two goals in a competitive game in this run, and their main scorer is absent.
- Slovenia have scored four goals in nine competitive matches
- Slovenia's four goals were all single strikes in separate matches
- Slovenia average 0.56 goals per competitive match
- Slovenia's home competitive scoring average is 0.75
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostSlovenia under 1.5Estimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
North Macedonia's away scoring sits at roughly one goal per match and they rarely score twice on the road.
- North Macedonia average one goal per competitive away match
- They were kept out by Belgium and Denmark in their most recent away qualifiers
- They scored once in five of their six most recent away qualifiers
- Slovenia's competitive clean-sheet count is three in nine
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonNorth Macedonia under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Slovenia have rarely kept opponents out at home, and North Macedonia find the net in most of their matches.
- Slovenia conceded in four of their last six competitive matches
- North Macedonia scored in four of their last six competitive matches
- Slovenia's home competitive goals-against average is 2.0
- Slovenia conceded in three of their four competitive home matches in this window
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNorth Macedonia to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
North Macedonia's away defence has been generous even allowing for two heavy defeats, so Slovenia scoring is the slightly more likely outcome.
- Slovenia scored in two of their last four competitive home matches
- Slovenia's home competitive scoring average is 0.75
- North Macedonia conceded 11 goals across their five competitive away matches
- North Macedonia's away goals-against average is 2.2
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSlovenia to scoreEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roughly half of the recent first halves involving these teams produced a goal, and Slovenia concede before the break fairly often.
- Three of Slovenia's last six competitive first halves contained a goal
- Three of North Macedonia's last six competitive first halves contained a goal
- Slovenia's first-half goals-against average is 0.89 per competitive match
- North Macedonia's away first halves average 1.4 goals in total
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slovenia's second halves are frequently scoreless, which keeps the total low even when North Macedonia's away games run high.
- Three of Slovenia's last six competitive second halves contained no goals
- Slovenia's second-half totals in those six matches were 2, 1, 0, 0, 0 and 3
- North Macedonia's second-half totals in their last six were 4, 4, 1, 0, 4 and 0
- Slovenia's second-half scoring average is 0.44 per competitive match
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance57%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
North Macedonia's away games generate corners at both ends, and Slovenia's home matches have usually cleared this line.
- Slovenia's last four competitive home corner totals: 11, 7, 6 and 5
- North Macedonia's away corner totals: 13, 12, 15 and 6
- Slovenia average 2.3 corners and concede 4.4 per competitive match
- North Macedonia concede 7.8 corners per competitive away match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
North Macedonia's away matches have all been busy at both ends, and most of the shot volume in Slovenia's games comes from opponents.
- North Macedonia's last six competitive matches produced 23, 23, 35, 28, 21 and 22 total shots
- North Macedonia's opponents average 16 shots per away match
- Slovenia's opponents average 11.6 shots per competitive match
- Slovenia average 8.3 shots per competitive match
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 18.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 1W

D1-1FYR MacedoniavSloveniaJun 1, 2021FRI

L2-1FYR MacedoniavSloveniaOct 10, 2019EUR

D1-1SloveniavFYR MacedoniaMar 24, 2019EUR

North Macedonia unbeaten in 3 meetings2.3 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	Slovenia Relegation Playoffs	0	0	0	0	0-0	0
4	North Macedonia Relegation	0	0	0	0	0-0	0

Slovenia leads the leagueNorth Macedonia leads the leagueSlovenia in relegation zoneNorth Macedonia in relegation zone

Recent Form

Slovenia

L1-2CroatiaJun 7FRI

D1-1CyprusJun 4FRI

W3-2MontenegroMar 31FRI

L0-1HungaryMar 28FRI

D1-1SwedenNov 18WOR

L0-2KosovoNov 15WOR

D0-0SwitzerlandOct 13WOR

D0-0KosovoOct 10WOR

L0-3SwitzerlandSep 8WOR

D2-2SwedenSep 5WOR

W2-1Bosnia & HerzegovinaJun 10FRI

W1-0LuxembourgJun 6FRI

D0-0SlovakiaMar 20UEF

D1-1AustriaNov 17UEF

L1-4NorwayNov 14UEF

North Macedonia

L0-4TürkiyeJun 1FRI

D0-0Bosnia & HerzegovinaMay 29FRI

D0-0Rep. Of IrelandMar 31FRI

L0-4DenmarkMar 26WOR

L1-7WalesNov 18WOR

D0-0LatviaNov 13FRI

D1-1KazakhstanOct 13WOR

D0-0BelgiumOct 10WOR

W5-0LiechtensteinSep 7WOR

L1-2Saudi ArabiaSep 4FRI

W1-0KazakhstanJun 9WOR

D1-1BelgiumJun 6WOR

D1-1WalesMar 25WOR

W3-0LiechtensteinMar 22WOR

W1-0Faroe IslandsNov 17UEF

Squad & Injuries

Slovenia

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

North Macedonia

37 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or North Macedonia

Draw or North Macedonia

North Macedonia

Draw

No

Under 2.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 8 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Slovenia

North Macedonia

Squad & Injuries

Slovenia

North Macedonia