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Horsholm-Usserod IKHelsingor

Sat 3 Oct 2026, 12:003 Oct, 12:00

14Probabilities4Priced4Edges87%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 03:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Helsingør sit third and have scored in all 13 competitive matches, but they have won only one of four league away games and lost 5-2 at home to these opponents in the August cup tie.

Both teams scoring and three or more goals are the more plausible reads of the form. At 1.4 for both teams to score, 1.43 for over 2.5 goals, 1.2 for a first-half goal and 1.95 for Helsingør to win, none of the quoted prices is worth taking.

Context

Hørsholm-Usserød are without two suspended players and one knock, while Helsingør lose two players to knocks and one long-term cruciate ligament absence; the fixture also pairs Helsingør's 1W 1D 2L league away record with the hosts' 2W 1D 2L home record.

Aarup and Menck are out only for this fixture — a yellow-card accumulation and a red card respectively — while Tønnesen's knock carries no stated return date. Hørsholm-Usserød have kept one clean sheet in nine league matches this season and have conceded in each of the six since 15 August. Helsingør scored five at home to Holbæk B&I on 25 September, the attack the hosts must contain. Which of the three absentees would otherwise have started is not established.
- Robin Aarup is out through a yellow-card suspension.
- Markus Menck is out through a red-card suspension.
- Anders Tønnesen is out with a knock.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt – Hørsholm-Usserød IK vs FC Helsingørwww.transfermarkt.com · 2 Oct 2026
Karlsen's absence is the long-term one, after cruciate ligament surgery, while Sjøholm and Simonsen are out with knocks that could clear sooner. Helsingør have won three of their last five league matches and have scored in each of their last eight, including a 5-1 home win over Holbæk B&I on 25 September. Whether any of the three would have started at Hørsholm-Usserød is not established, so the effect on the XI remains uncertain.
- Rasmus Sjøholm is out with a knock.
- Frederik Simonsen is out with a knock.
- Frederik Karlsen is out following cruciate ligament surgery.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt – Hørsholm-Usserød IK vs FC Helsingørwww.transfermarkt.com · 2 Oct 2026
Hørsholm-Usserød won 5-2 at Helsingør on 25 August 2026 in the second round of the DBU Pokalen, the only meeting between the clubs this season. It was a knockout tie, and Helsingør have since won three of their last five league fixtures, including a 5-1 home win over Holbæk B&I. The result is a marker of the upset potential in this fixture rather than a direct guide to league form, and Hørsholm-Usserød have won only once in their three league games since 13 September.
- Hørsholm-Usserød won 5-2 away to Helsingør in the DBU Pokalen second round on 25 August 2026.
- The match was played in front of 412 spectators.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt – Hørsholm-Usserød IK vs FC Helsingørwww.transfermarkt.com · 2 Oct 2026
Mouroux took charge of Hørsholm-Usserød on 9 September 2026, making this the fourth league fixture of his tenure. The preceding three produced a 3-1 home win over Holbæk B&I, a 1-1 home draw with Vanløse and a 2-1 defeat at ASA Aarhus, with the side scoring each time. A new head coach can reshape selection and structure, but three league matches is a short base and the three absentees add uncertainty about how settled the XI can be.
- Christian Mouroux took charge of Hørsholm-Usserød on 9 September 2026.
ReportedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 03:52 · Europe/BucharestTransfermarkt – Hørsholm-Usserød IK vs FC Helsingørwww.transfermarkt.com · 2 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.20fair 1.27

BetBugs 79% · Market 83.3%

−4.3ppshort

Almost all of these teams' recent matches have produced at least one first-half goal.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.40fair 1.41

BetBugs 71% · Market 71.4%

−0.4ppshort

Both teams score regularly and the only meeting this season produced seven goals.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.9%

−4.9ppshort

Both teams average around two goals scored per game and their recent matches have mostly passed three goals.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Helsingor

1.95fair 2.56

BetBugs 39% · Market 51.3%

−12.3ppshort

Helsingør are clearly the stronger side over the season, and their away form is only mildly below the hosts' home form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.95
The read
Helsingør are clearly the stronger side over the season, and their away form is only mildly below the hosts' home form.
- Helsingør have 7 wins from 13 competitive matches and sit 3rd in the table.
- Helsingør's home league record is 4W 1D 0L, showing the side's overall quality.
- Hørsholm-Usserød have conceded 18 goals in 9 league games and lost 4 of 9.
BetBugs · Match WinnerHelsingorMarket price1.95Estimated chance39%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team's first-half goal difference is large, and half-time parity is the single most common outcome.
- Hørsholm-Usserød first-half goal difference: 1.0 for, 0.91 against.
- Helsingør first-half goal difference: 0.92 for, 0.69 against overall.
- Two of Helsingør's last six matches were 0-0 at half-time, and Hørsholm-Usserød had three goalless first halves.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half goal differences are small, making a level second half the most likely single outcome.
- Hørsholm-Usserød second-half difference: 1.18 for, 0.91 against.
- Helsingør second-half difference: 1.08 for, 0.85 against overall.
- Neither side's second-half goal difference exceeds 0.3 per game.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Helsingør's better season is offset by a losing league away record and a heavy August cup defeat to this same opponent, so the hosts take a real but not leading share. Helsingør are clearly the stronger side over the season, and their away form is only mildly below the hosts' home form.
- Hørsholm-Usserød league home record: 2W 1D 2L, 8 scored and 7 conceded in 5 games.
- Helsingør league away record: 1W 1D 2L, 6 scored and 7 conceded in 4 games.
- Helsingør have 7 wins from 13 competitive matches and sit 3rd in the table.
- Helsingør's home league record is 4W 1D 0L, showing the side's overall quality.
BetBugs · Double ChanceHorsholm-Usserod IK or HelsingorEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The hosts score a goal a game before the break while Helsingør have managed barely a third of a goal per away first half. Neither team's first-half goal difference is large, and half-time parity is the single most common outcome.
- Hørsholm-Usserød average 1.0 first-half goals for and 0.91 against.
- Helsingør score 0.33 first-half goals per away match in the six-match away split.
- Hørsholm-Usserød first-half goal difference: 1.0 for, 0.91 against.
- Helsingør first-half goal difference: 0.92 for, 0.69 against overall.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfHorsholm-Usserod IK or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals9 outcomes · top 87%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both teams average around two goals scored per game and their recent matches have mostly passed three goals.
- Hørsholm-Usserød average 2.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded across 11 competitive matches.
- Helsingør's six-match away split shows 2.0 scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
- 8 of the 12 most recent competitive matches for these two teams produced three or more goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.43Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams score regularly and the only meeting this season produced seven goals.
- Hørsholm-Usserød have seen both teams score in 8 of 11 competitive matches, 3 of 5 at home.
- Helsingør have seen both teams score in 10 of 13 competitive matches and in all 6 away matches in the split.
- Helsingør have scored in each of their 13 competitive matches this window.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.40Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Almost all of these teams' recent matches have produced at least one first-half goal.
- 10 of the 12 most recent competitive matches for these teams had a first-half goal.
- Hørsholm-Usserød's first-half totals average 1.91 goals per match.
- Helsingør's away-split first-half totals average 1.16 goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.20Estimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The first halves in these teams' recent matches have usually involved only one scoring side or none.
- In 9 of 12 combined recent matches at least one team failed to score in the first half.
- Helsingør's away-split first-half scoring average is 0.33 goals.
- Hørsholm-Usserød have scored in only 1 of their last 6 first halves.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been the highest-scoring period for both teams in recent matches.
- 10 of the 12 combined recent matches had two or more second-half goals.
- Helsingør average 2.67 second-half goals in total per away match in their split.
- Hørsholm-Usserød average 2.09 second-half goals in total per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The hosts' home output is modest and they have been kept to a goal or fewer in half of their recent matches.
- Hørsholm-Usserød have been held to one goal or fewer in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Their home league scoring average is 1.6 goals per game.
- Helsingør have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalHorsholm-Usserod IK under 1.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Helsingør's league away scoring has been more modest than their overall rate suggests.
- Helsingør's league away record is 6 goals in 4 games, 1.5 per game.
- They scored exactly one goal in each of their last two league away matches.
- Hørsholm-Usserød kept 1 clean sheet in 5 league home games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalHelsingor under 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Helsingør have scored in every competitive match available, so the hosts keeping a clean sheet is a long shot.
- Helsingør scored in 13 of 13 competitive matches in the source window.
- Helsingør scored in all 6 matches of their away split.
- Hørsholm-Usserød kept a clean sheet in only 1 of 5 league home games.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreHelsingor to scoreEstimated chance87%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hørsholm-Usserød have been held scoreless only once in eleven competitive matches.
- Hørsholm-Usserød scored in 10 of 11 competitive matches.
- They scored in 4 of 5 league home games.
- Helsingør kept no clean sheet in 6 away matches in the split.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreHorsholm-Usserod IK to scoreEstimated chance84%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W2-5FC HelsingorvHørsholm-UsserødAug 25, 2026DBU

7 goals/game avg

League Table

3. Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Horsholm-Usserod IK 3rd Division (Relegation Group)	9	2	3	4	17-18	9	LDWLL
3	Helsingor Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group)	9	5	2	2	17-11	17	WDWLW

8pt gap between teamsHorsholm-Usserod IK in relegation zone

Recent Form

Horsholm-Usserod IK

L1-2ASA AarhusSep 263.

D1-1VanløseSep 193.

W3-1Holbæk B&ISep 133.

L3-4NæsbySep 53.

L0-2BrønshøjAug 293.

W5-2FC HelsingorAug 25DBU

D4-4SundbyAug 223.

W2-0IshøjAug 153.

W2-0FøroyarAug 12DBU

D1-1FremAug 73.

L2-3HolstebroAug 13.

D3-3RoskildeJul 25FRI

D2-2FC NordsjaellandJul 21FRI

D2-2RingstedJul 18FRI

W2-1IshøjJul 11FRI

Helsingor

W5-1Holbæk B&ISep 253.

D1-1NæsbySep 193.

W2-1SundbySep 133.

L1-2BrønshøjSep 43.

W1-0IshøjAug 283.

L2-5Hørsholm-UsserødAug 25DBU

L1-2HolstebroAug 223.

W1-0FremAug 143.

W3-2RingstedAug 83.

W4-1VallensbækAug 4DBU

D2-2VanløseJul 313.

D2-2NaestvedJul 19FRI

W3-0FA 2000Jul 11FRI

L2-3VSK ÅrhusJun 62.

W1-0BrabrandMay 302.

Squad & Injuries

Horsholm-Usserod IK

4 available

Attackers2

Midfielders1

Defenders1

Goalkeeper0

Helsingor

18 available

Attackers6

Midfielders4

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2