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ASA AarhusHorsholm-Usserod IK

Sat 26 Sept 2026, 13:0026 Sept, 13:00

14Probabilities4Priced4Edges83%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 23:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Round 9 of Division 3 Group A pits ASA's home record against a Horsholm-Usserod side that has drawn two of three league away games but scores almost every week.

ASA look the likelier winners, and the 2.38 available for them is the only reviewed price that offers anything; the draw at 3.8 and a Horsholm-Usserod win at 2.4 ask for more than the record gives, while over 2.5 goals at 1.50, both teams to score at 1.45 and a first-half goal at 1.22 are short.

Context

No reported availability issues for either side; the conditions that matter are ASA Aarhus's home league record of three wins and a draw in four games and Horsholm-Usserod's habit of scoring on the road, set against a visitor still without a league away win.

ASA Aarhus's league campaign has separated cleanly along home and away lines, and this fixture falls on the favourable side of that split.
The split is the home side's strongest signal: every league win has come in front of their own support, and they have conceded only twice in four home games. The sample is four matches at each venue, and the visiting side scores in almost every match, so a comfortable home afternoon is not assured.
- League home record 2026: 4 games, 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 8 scored, 2 conceded (snapshot 25 September 2026)
- League away record 2026: 4 games, 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses, 3 scored, 9 conceded
- Overall 3. Division record after 8 games: 4W-1D-3L, 13 points, sixth place
- Form across the last five league games: L-W-L-W-L
Horsholm-Usserod's away fixtures have been the open end of their season, and they arrive without a league win on the road.
Three away fixtures is a thin sample, but the pattern fits their wider league record of 16 scored and 16 conceded in eight games. They have avoided defeat twice on their travels yet have not won, and their matches rarely stay quiet. ASA's home defence, two goals conceded in four league games, is the part of this fixture the visiting record tests.
- League away record 2026: 3 games, 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, 8 scored, 9 conceded (snapshot 25 September 2026)
- Overall 3. Division record after 8 games: 2W-3D-3L, 16 scored, 16 conceded, ninth place
- Form across the last five league games: D-W-L-L-D
- Total goals in their three league away matches: 17
Robotize Park is the ground given for this ninth-round Group A fixture, dated 26 September 2026. The date, round and venue are consistent across the public schedules for the game, so the staging details are settled even though it was circulated without a confirmed round or ground. The one element that does not line up is the kick-off time, listed as 08.00, against an afternoon start recorded for the same date in other schedules. The hour is therefore the least firm detail here; the date is the reliable anchor.
- The match is scheduled for 26 September 2026.
- It is round 9 of Danish Division 3 Group A.
- Robotize Park is given as the venue.
- The listed kick-off time is 08.00.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 23:26 · Europe/Bucharestooscore match listingooscore.com · 25 Sep 2026TV 2 fixture listingsport.tv2.dk · 25 Sep 2026
It is the heaviest result in ASA Aarhus's six most recent matches and it came away from Robotize Park.
The defeat sits on the away side of ASA's season, where their league record is one win and three losses, and it is the worst scoreline in their six most recent matches. At home they have conceded twice in four league games, so this kind of afternoon has not been their norm on their own ground. Horsholm-Usserod's habit of scoring means the home side cannot lean on that home record alone.
- 19 September 2026: Bronshoj 5-1 ASA Aarhus, away, league defeat
- Half-time score in that match was 1-1; ASA conceded four goals after the break
- ASA Aarhus's league form across the last five games is L-W-L-W-L
- Home league record 2026: 4 games, 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 8 scored, 2 conceded

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 82%

−10.0ppshort

Both teams' first halves usually contain a goal, and the visitors' away games are open early.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

−1.7ppshort

Both teams score regularly and the visitors' away fixtures have been especially open.

Both Teams to ScoreUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69%

−6.0ppshort

The visitors almost always score and ASA have found the net consistently across the tracked window.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.38
The read
ASA have been much stronger at home than away this season, while the visitors have not yet won a league game on the road.
- ASA Aarhus are 3W-1D-0L in four league home games, scoring 8 and conceding 2
- Their 8-match tracked home split is 5W-2D-1L with 2.25 goals scored per game
- Horsholm-Usserod are 0W-2D-1L in three league away games
- Horsholm-Usserod have drawn 3 of their 8 league matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerASA AarhusMarket price2.38Estimated chance49%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves involving these teams have been tight or evenly matched, which makes a level interval the single most likely outcome.
- ASA's home first-half record is 0.57 scored and 0.29 conceded per game
- Horsholm-Usserod's away split shows 1.2 first-half goals for and 1.2 against
- Four of the last 12 matches involving these sides were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
ASA are the more productive second-half side at home and concede relatively little after the break there.
- ASA average 1.43 second-half goals for and 0.71 against in tracked home matches
- ASA average 0.86 second-half goals overall
- Horsholm-Usserod concede 1.0 second-half goal per away match in their split
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerASA AarhusEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
ASA have been much stronger at home than away this season, while the visitors have not yet won a league game on the road. The visitors' tendency to share points away from home and ASA's single dropped home result keep a draw in play.
- ASA Aarhus are 3W-1D-0L in four league home games, scoring 8 and conceding 2
- Their 8-match tracked home split is 5W-2D-1L with 2.25 goals scored per game
- Horsholm-Usserod have drawn 3 of 8 league matches
- ASA Aarhus have drawn 1 of 4 league home games
BetBugs · Double ChanceASA Aarhus or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
ASA are the tidier side before the break and concede little in first halves at home. First halves involving these teams have been tight or evenly matched, which makes a level interval the single most likely outcome.
- ASA average 0.57 first-half goals scored in tracked home matches
- ASA concede 0.29 first-half goals per tracked home match
- ASA's home first-half record is 0.57 scored and 0.29 conceded per game
- Horsholm-Usserod's away split shows 1.2 first-half goals for and 1.2 against
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfASA Aarhus or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals9 outcomes · top 83%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams score regularly and the visitors' away fixtures have been especially open.
- ASA's tracked home matches average 2.25 scored and 1.38 conceded
- Horsholm-Usserod's three league away games produced 17 goals in total
- Both teams scored in 8 of Horsholm-Usserod's 11 competitive matches
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of each side's last 6 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.50Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
The visitors almost always score and ASA have found the net consistently across the tracked window.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Horsholm-Usserod's 11 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 5 of Horsholm-Usserod's last 6
- ASA scored in 13 of 15 tracked matches
- Horsholm-Usserod failed to score in only 1 of 11 competitive matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.45Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
ASA's home scoring rate and the visitors' away defending both point to at least two home goals.
- ASA average 2.25 goals in tracked home matches
- ASA scored 8 goals in 4 league home games
- Horsholm-Usserod conceded 9 goals in 3 league away games
- Horsholm-Usserod's away split shows 2.2 goals conceded per game
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalASA Aarhus over 1.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors have been prolific on their travels and ASA concede at a steady rate at home.
- Horsholm-Usserod scored 8 goals in 3 league away games
- They scored 3, 4 and 5 in their three most recent away fixtures
- Horsholm-Usserod average 2.27 goals per competitive match
- ASA conceded 1.38 goals per tracked home match
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalHorsholm-Usserod IK over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The visitors score in nearly every match, making a home shutout the less likely outcome.
- Horsholm-Usserod failed to score in only 1 of 11 competitive matches
- Horsholm-Usserod average 2.27 goals per competitive match
- Horsholm-Usserod scored in 5 of their last 6 matches
- ASA conceded in 5 of 8 tracked home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreHorsholm-Usserod IK to scoreEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
ASA find the net regularly and the visitors have conceded at least three goals in two of their three league away games.
- ASA scored in 13 of 15 tracked matches
- ASA scored in 7 of 8 tracked home matches
- Horsholm-Usserod conceded 9 goals in 3 league away games
- Horsholm-Usserod conceded 16 goals in 8 league matches
BetBugs · Team to ScoreASA Aarhus to scoreEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first halves usually contain a goal, and the visitors' away games are open early.
- ASA's tracked home matches average 0.57 first-half goals for and 0.29 against
- Horsholm-Usserod's away split shows 1.2 first-half goals for and 1.2 against
- Horsholm-Usserod average 1.09 first-half goals overall
- A first-half goal was scored in 9 of the last 12 matches involving these sides
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.22Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Early goals for both teams have been uncommon in these sides' recent matches.
- Both teams scored before half-time in only 3 of the last 12 matches involving these sides
- ASA concede 0.29 first-half goals per tracked home match
- ASA have kept the first half clean in 4 of their last 6 matches
- Horsholm-Usserod's away split shows 1.2 first-half goals conceded
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams do most of their scoring after the break and the visitors' away games stay busy late.
- ASA home matches average 1.43 second-half goals for and 0.71 against
- Horsholm-Usserod's away split averages 1.8 second-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded
- Second-half totals above 1.5 occurred in 4 of ASA's last 6 and 5 of Horsholm-Usserod's last 6
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

League Table

3. Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	ASA Aarhus Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group)	8	4	1	3	11-11	13	LWLWL
8	Horsholm-Usserod IK 3rd Division (Relegation Group)	8	2	3	3	16-16	9	DWLLD

4pt gap between teamsHorsholm-Usserod IK in relegation zone

Recent Form

ASA Aarhus

L1-5BrønshøjSep 193.

W1-0NæsbySep 133.

L0-1SundbySep 53.

W4-0HolstebroAug 283.

L1-3FremAug 223.

L0-4Randers FCAug 19DBU

W2-1VanløseAug 153.

W1-0IshøjAug 113.

D1-1RingstedAug 13.

D1-1VRIMar 28DEN

W2-0NørresundbyMar 21DEN

D4-4Hobro IIMar 14DEN

W1-0VorupMar 7DEN

W4-1Fuglebakken KFUMNov 8DEN

D1-1HolstebroNov 1DEN

Horsholm-Usserod IK

D1-1VanløseSep 193.

W3-1Holbæk B&ISep 133.

L3-4NæsbySep 53.

L0-2BrønshøjAug 293.

W5-2FC HelsingorAug 25DBU

D4-4SundbyAug 223.

W2-0IshøjAug 153.

W2-0FøroyarAug 12DBU

D1-1FremAug 73.

L2-3HolstebroAug 13.

D3-3RoskildeJul 25FRI

D2-2FC NordsjaellandJul 21FRI

D2-2RingstedJul 18FRI

W2-1IshøjJul 11FRI

L2-4NæsbyJun 133.

Squad & Injuries

ASA Aarhus

1 available

Attackers0

Midfielders1

Defenders0

Goalkeeper0

Horsholm-Usserod IK

4 available

Attackers2

Midfielders1

Defenders1

Goalkeeper0