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HelsingorHolbaek

Fri 25 Sept 2026, 17:0025 Sept, 17:00

15Probabilities4Priced4Edges91%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 23:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Holbaek lead the 3.

Division and have scored 11 goals in four away league games, but Helsingor have not lost a league game at home this season. Holbaek to win is the likelier result, and at 2.1 it is the only price of those checked that offers anything; over 2.5 goals at 1.5 is close to fair, while both teams to score at 1.48 and a first-half goal at 1.22 ask more than the record justifies.

Context

No availability, venue or squad news for either side, and research produced only a Holbaek trialist who cannot feature. The sporting picture rests on Holbaek's 23 goals in eight league games and Helsingor's three wins and a draw from four home league games.

The away split is two wins, one draw and one defeat, with 11 scored and six conceded, and the single loss came on their travels. That scoring rate is the biggest problem for a Helsingor side that has conceded only three goals in four home league games. The standings were taken on 24 September 2026, so they cover every completed round before this fixture.
- Standings as of 24 September 2026: Holbaek 1st, 8 played, 6W 1D 1L, 23 goals for, 12 against.
- Holbaek away league record: 4 played, 2W 1D 1L, 11 goals for, 6 against.
The home split is 3W 1D 0L with six goals scored and three conceded. Away from home they are 1W 1D 2L, which explains why a side unbeaten on its own ground sits fourth on 14 points while Holbaek lead on 19. Their league form across the last five rounds reads DWLWL, so the home record is carrying a large part of their season.
- Standings as of 24 September 2026: Helsingor 4th, 8 played, 4W 2D 2L, 12 goals for, 10 against, form DWLWL.
- Helsingor home league record: 4 played, 3W 1D 0L, 6 goals for, 3 against; away record: 4 played, 1W 1D 2L, 6 for, 7 against.
Mogamat Ashan Andrews, an 18-year-old from Hout Bay United in Cape Town, has been with Holbæk on trial since early September, with Football Stage and Soccer Laduma both placing him at the club. It matters here mainly as a window on the 3rd Division side's recruitment rather than on the result, since the trial has now run through the week of this fixture. The concrete limitation is that a trialist is not a registered squad member, so Andrews cannot feature at Helsingør and the arrangement carries no selection consequence. The reporting does not indicate whether a contract decision is close.
- Football Stage reported on 2 September 2026 that 18-year-old Mogamat Ashan Andrews of Hout Bay United FC was on trial at Holbæk Bold- & Idrætsforening, a 3rd Division club.
- Soccer Laduma reported on 24 September 2026 that the Cape Town prospect is trialling at Holbæk B&I with the aim of securing a first professional contract in Europe.
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:59 · Europe/Bucharest
Friendlies are weak evidence and both of these goalless draws came in pre-season, so they say less about Friday than this season's league form does. They are still the only meetings between the clubs since 2019, and neither side has scored against the other in that time. Holbaek have otherwise been prolific, which makes the blank in these two games the odd note in the head-to-head record.
- 17 Feb 2026 (friendly): Holbaek B&I 0-0 FC Helsingor.
- 30 Jul 2024 (friendly): FC Helsingor 0-0 Holbaek B&I.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 82%

−6.0ppshort

Both teams have shown they can score in the first half, making at least one goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result5 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Holbaek's strong attacking form and high scoring rate make them clear favourites despite Helsingor's home record.
- Holbaek are top of the league with 6 wins in 8, scoring 2.88 goals per game.
- Holbaek away record: 2W 1D 1L in league, scoring 2.75 goals per away game.
- Helsingor have lost 2 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerHolbaekMarket price2.10Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half draws are common, and both teams' first-half records suggest a tight opening period.
- Helsingor's home first-half goals average is 1.0, conceding 0.67.
- Holbaek's away first-half goals average is 1.0, conceding 0.33.
- First halves generally produce fewer goals, increasing draw likelihood.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's strong second-half scoring record away from home makes them likely to win the second half.
- Holbaek average 2.17 second-half goals away.
- Helsingor concede 0.67 second-half goals at home.
- Holbaek have scored 2+ second-half goals in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerHolbaekEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Helsingor are unbeaten at home in the league and have a solid defensive record there, but they face the league leaders. Holbaek's strong attacking form and high scoring rate make them clear favourites despite Helsingor's home record.
- Helsingor are 4th with 14 points from 8; their league home record is 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses.
- Holbaek lead the league with 19 points and have won 4 of 6 away matches.
- Holbaek are top of the league with 6 wins in 8, scoring 2.88 goals per game.
- Holbaek away record: 2W 1D 1L in league, scoring 2.75 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Double ChanceHelsingor or HolbaekEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half draws are common, and both teams' first-half records suggest a tight opening period. Holbaek's strong away scoring and Helsingor's tendency to concede early make an away half-time lead plausible.
- Helsingor's home first-half goals average is 1.0, conceding 0.67.
- Holbaek's away first-half goals average is 1.0, conceding 0.33.
- Holbaek average 1.0 first-half goals away.
- Helsingor concede 0.67 first-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or HolbaekEstimated chance75%

Goals10 outcomes · top 91%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams score and concede regularly, with Holbaek involved in high-scoring games, pointing to over 2.5.
- Holbaek's recent matches average 4.67 total goals; Helsingor's recent average is 3.17.
- Holbaek score 2.88 per game, Helsingor score 1.5 per game overall.
- Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in the majority of recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.50Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to both score and concede, and their recent matches support this.
- Holbaek have both scored and conceded in 11 of 13 matches.
- Helsingor have both scored and conceded in 10 of 13 matches.
- In recent matches, both teams scored in 5 of 6 for each side.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price1.48Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Helsingor's home scoring is moderate, and against a strong Holbaek defence they may struggle to reach two.
- Helsingor have scored 1 or fewer in 2 of their last 4 home league matches.
- Helsingor's home goals average is exactly 1.5, so under 1.5 is just below average.
- Holbaek have kept 1 clean sheet in 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalHelsingor under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's away scoring is prolific, and they have scored at least twice in most recent games.
- Holbaek average 2.75 goals per away league game.
- Holbaek have scored 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Helsingor concede 0.75 per home league game but face the league's top scorers.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalHolbaek over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's consistent scoring makes it very likely they will score at least once.
- Holbaek have scored in 12 of 13 matches.
- Holbaek have scored in all 4 away league matches.
- Helsingor have conceded in 3 of 4 home league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreHolbaek to scoreEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Helsingor's consistent scoring makes it probable they will score, preventing a Holbaek clean sheet.
- Helsingor have scored in all 13 matches this season.
- Helsingor have scored in all 4 home league matches.
- Holbaek have kept only 1 clean sheet in 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScoreHelsingor to scoreEstimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's scoring record makes it highly likely they will score, so Helsingor winning to nil is improbable.
- Holbaek have scored in 12 of 13 matches.
- Helsingor have conceded in 3 of 6 home matches.
- Holbaek average 2.75 goals per away game.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilNoEstimated chance91%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Helsingor's consistent scoring makes it unlikely Holbaek will win without conceding.
- Helsingor have scored in all 13 matches.
- Helsingor have scored in all 4 home league matches.
- Holbaek have kept only 1 clean sheet in 6 away matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams have shown they can score in the first half, making at least one goal likely.
- Helsingor home first-half: 1.0 GF, 0.67 GA.
- Holbaek away first-half: 1.0 GF, 0.33 GA.
- Both teams have scored first-half goals in most recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.22Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Holbaek's second-half scoring and Helsingor's tendency to concede late point to over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Holbaek average 2.17 second-half goals away; Helsingor average 0.5 at home.
- Combined second-half average for these teams is around 2.67.
- Holbaek have been involved in high-scoring second halves recently.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance65%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 1W

D0-0Holbæk B&IvFC HelsingorFeb 17, 2026FRI

D0-0FC HelsingorvHolbæk B&IJul 30, 2024FRI

W1-2Holbæk B&IvFC HelsingorOct 20, 20192ND

L5-0FC HelsingorvHolbæk B&ISep 6, 20192ND

Helsingor: 2 clean sheetsHolbaek: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

3. Division 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Helsingor Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group)	8	4	2	2	12-10	14	DWLWL
1	Holbaek Promotion - 3rd Division (Promotion Group)	8	6	1	1	23-12	19	WLWWW

5pt gap between teamsHolbaek leads the league

Recent Form

Helsingor

D1-1NæsbySep 193.

W2-1SundbySep 133.

L1-2BrønshøjSep 43.

W1-0IshøjAug 283.

L2-5Hørsholm-UsserødAug 25DBU

L1-2HolstebroAug 223.

W1-0FremAug 143.

W3-2RingstedAug 83.

W4-1VallensbækAug 4DBU

D2-2VanløseJul 313.

D2-2NaestvedJul 19FRI

W3-0FA 2000Jul 11FRI

L2-3VSK ÅrhusJun 62.

W1-0BrabrandMay 302.

D2-2IshøjMay 232.

Holbaek

W5-2RingstedSep 183.

L1-3Hørsholm-UsserødSep 133.

W4-0IshøjSep 53.

W3-2NæsbyAug 293.

W4-1BrønshøjAug 213.

W2-1SundbyAug 153.

D2-2HolstebroAug 83.

L1-2AB CopenhagenAug 4DBU

W2-1FremAug 13.

W3-1HIKJul 18FRI

L1-3B 93Jul 14FRI

W1-0Vejgaard BJun 133.

W5-1SundbyJun 43.

W2-1LysengMay 303.

W3-1FremMay 233.

Squad & Injuries

Helsingor

18 available

Attackers6

Midfielders4

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Holbaek

19 available

Attackers4

Midfielders7

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Holbaek

Over 2.5

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Yes

Result5 outcomes · top 78%

Goals10 outcomes · top 91%

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Helsingor

Holbaek

Squad & Injuries

Helsingor

Holbaek