FriendliesUpcomingFeatured

Congo DRUganda

Fri 2 Oct 2026, 13:002 Oct, 13:00

13Probabilities4Priced7Edges85%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 07:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Congo DR have the stronger case to win, but a closed-doors friendly with both teams rotating makes the result far less predictable than the records suggest.

The prices that offer something are Over 2.5 goals at 2.3, both teams to score at 2.25, Uganda or a draw at 2.1, Uganda to win at 4.5, and either team to win the first half at 1.73. Congo DR to win at 1.73, the draw at 3.5 and Under 2.5 at 1.55 do not.

Context

A neutral-venue friendly behind closed doors with both teams expected to rotate heavily and Uganda reported to be missing five squad members lowers the weight of recent competitive form.

The two meetings are scheduled at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg on 2 and 5 October with the ground shut to spectators. Congo DR have worked in Pretoria and Uganda in the Johannesburg area, so neither team draws on home backing or a hostile crowd. With a quick second game to follow, both staffs can spread minutes instead of chasing one result. Closed doors remove atmosphere, but they do not by themselves lower the standard of either line-up.
- Congo DR meet Uganda in two friendlies on 2 and 5 October 2026 at FNB Stadium in Johannesburg.
- Both games are listed for FNB Stadium with the first played behind closed doors and no crowd admitted.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 07:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Five members of the wider Cranes group, led by captain Denis Onyango, stayed behind when the squad flew to South Africa. The omissions leave the travelling party closer to the mix Uganda want to test and raise the chance that newer call-ups start at least one of the two games. The stated reason is a technical-team decision rather than injury, so places are not closed for the second meeting on 5 October. The omission detail rests on one local broadcast item, so the matchday squad still needs confirming.
- Uganda's squad landed in South Africa for the friendlies against Congo DR on 2 and 5 October 2026.
- Captain Denis Onyango, Rogers Mato, Abdu Aziizi Kayondo, Nathan Asiimwe and Noble Okello missed the trip on a decision by the technical team.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 07:15 · Europe/Bucharest
Congo DR carried a small core over from the Zimbabwe trip and topped it up with less experienced call-ups, and the double-header is framed as a look at those newcomers rather than a settled rehearsal. That points to a side noticeably changed from the one that won in Harare, with individual showings weighing more than the scoreline. The aim is to widen the pool across the two games, with the Harare core providing the spine. No eleven has been published, so the scale of the rotation is directional rather than fixed.
- Congo DR's group for the friendlies combined 14 players who travelled from Harare with new call-ups to make a squad of 23.
- The two games are being used to give the squad's newer players a chance to win a regular place.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 07:15 · Europe/BucharestAfrica Soccerafricasoccer.com · 30 Sep 2026
Put goes into the game emphasising minutes for players who have not featured and playing down the result, and the 28-man squad for this window was built to give him those options. Uganda's wider picture points the same way, with a new-look side likely rather than the one that beat Libya. That makes the team sheet hard to call from form alone and leaves the scoreline a weaker guide than usual. Friendly rotation is routine, so the signal is directional rather than a confirmed eleven.
- Paul Put, Uganda head coach, on the window: "We have a competitive international break ahead... I believe in this squad."
- Paul Put: "Even if we lose, it's not dramatic... The important thing is players who didn't play can show themselves."
- Uganda's coach is expected to make several changes from the side that beat Libya.
ReportedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 07:15 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 80%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Congo DR have a stronger overall record and better recent form, while Uganda have struggled away from home.
- Congo DR have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in 11 competitive matches.
- Congo DR have won three of their last six competitive matches.
- Uganda have a 2-2-2 away record in six away matches, conceding 1.5 goals per game.
- Head-to-head last three: Congo DR 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerCongo DREstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have often been evenly contested, with several recent draws.
- Congo DR have been level in the second half in one of their last six matches.
- Uganda have been level in the second half in three of their last six matches.
- Second halves have often been evenly contested.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Congo DR have a stronger overall record and better recent form, while Uganda have struggled away from home. Both teams have shown a tendency to draw in competitive matches and recent meetings have been tight.
- Congo DR have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in 11 competitive matches.
- Congo DR have won three of their last six competitive matches.
- Congo DR have drawn 2 of 11 competitive matches, Uganda 3 of 13.
- Two of the last three meetings between the teams were decided by one goal or drawn.
BetBugs · Double ChanceCongo DR or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Congo DR tend to start strongly and have a better first-half goal difference. Both teams have frequently gone into the break level in recent matches.
- Congo DR average 0.82 first-half goals for and 0.18 against in competitive matches.
- Congo DR led at half-time in three of their last six matches.
- Congo DR have been level at half-time in two of their last six matches.
- Uganda have been level at half-time in two of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfCongo DR or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals5 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring recent matches, with vulnerable defences.
- Congo DR's last six competitive matches produced 15 goals (2.5 per game).
- Uganda's last six competitive matches produced 16 goals (2.67 per game).
- Both teams scored in four of Congo DR's last six and five of Uganda's last six.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price2.30Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, and Uganda's recent defensive record suggests they will concede.
- Congo DR have scored in 10 of 11 competitive matches.
- Uganda have scored in each of their last six matches.
- Uganda have conceded in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesMarket price2.25Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Both teams have been involved in matches with first-half goals more often than not.
- Congo DR's last six matches had first-half goals in four of six.
- Uganda's last six matches had first-half goals in four of six.
- Combined, the teams average 1.36 first-half goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.45Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Historical data strongly suggests at least one team will not score in the first half.
- Only one of Congo DR's last six matches had both teams scoring in the first half.
- None of Uganda's last six matches had both teams scoring in the first half.
- Congo DR concede just 0.18 first-half goals per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.13Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Uganda's matches tend to have second-half goals, and Congo DR can contribute.
- Uganda's last six matches produced 12 second-half goals (2.0 per game).
- Congo DR's last six matches produced 7 second-half goals (1.17 per game).
- Four of Uganda's last six matches had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats4 outcomes · top 72%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have regularly produced more than 6.5 corners.
- Congo DR's last six matches averaged 7.7 total corners.
- Uganda's last five matches with corner data averaged 8.6 total corners.
- Five of Congo DR's last six and four of Uganda's last five had over 6.5 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 6.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shot totals have been mixed, with a slight lean towards under 22.5.
- Congo DR's overall matches average 23.11 total shots, just above the line.
- Uganda's overall matches average 22.2 total shots, just below the line.
- Three of Congo DR's last six and three of Uganda's last five had under 22.5 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have consistently produced more than 5.5 shots on target.
- Congo DR's last six matches averaged 7.3 total shots on target.
- Uganda's last five matches averaged 6.8 total shots on target.
- Four of Congo DR's last six and all five of Uganda's last five had over 5.5 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 5.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches have mostly stayed under 3.5 total cards.
- Congo DR's overall matches average 3.4 total cards, just under the line.
- Uganda's overall matches average 3.25 total cards, under the line.
- Four of Congo DR's last six and four of Uganda's last six had under 3.5 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderUnder 3.5Estimated chance62%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 1W

W1-0Congo DRvUgandaJun 14, 2023FRI

D0-0Congo DRvUgandaJan 14, 2023AFR

L0-2Congo DRvUgandaJun 22, 2019AFR

Congo DR: 2 clean sheetsUganda: 2 clean sheets1 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Congo DR

W2-1ZimbabweSep 28AFR

W2-0Equatorial GuineaSep 24AFR

L1-2EnglandJul 1WOR

W3-1UzbekistanJun 27WOR

L0-1ColombiaJun 24WOR

D1-1PortugalJun 17WOR

L1-2ChileJun 9FRI

D0-0DenmarkJun 3FRI

W2-0BermudaMar 25FRI

W3-0BotswanaDec 30AFR

D1-1SenegalDec 27AFR

W1-0BeninDec 23AFR

W2-0ZambiaDec 16FRI

W1-0CameroonNov 13WOR

W1-0SudanOct 14WOR

Uganda

W1-0LibyaSep 29AFR

D1-1TunisiaSep 24AFR

L1-3NigeriaDec 30AFR

D1-1TanzaniaDec 27AFR

L1-3TunisiaDec 23AFR

L0-4MoroccoNov 18FRI

W2-1ChadNov 14FRI

L1-2AlgeriaOct 14WOR

W1-0BotswanaOct 9WOR

W2-0SomaliaSep 8WOR

W4-0MozambiqueSep 5WOR

L0-1SenegalAug 23AFR

D3-3South AfricaAug 18AFR

W2-0NigerAug 11AFR

W3-0GuineaAug 8AFR

Squad & Injuries

Congo DR

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Uganda

22 available

Attackers6

Midfielders6

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Congo DRUganda

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Draw or Uganda

Uganda

Congo DR or Uganda

No

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

BetBugs probabilities

Result4 outcomes · top 80%

Goals5 outcomes · top 85%

Match stats4 outcomes · top 72%

Head-to-Head

Recent Form

Congo DR

Uganda

Squad & Injuries

Congo DR

Uganda