Tunisia11 – 1Uganda1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tunisia have home advantage and won the only recent meeting, giving them a narrow edge over a Uganda side with mixed away results. Both teams have shown they can be held level, and a qualifying match between sides of similar recent output can stay tight.

• Tunisia's competitive window reads 2W-2D-5L with 1.44 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per match
• Tunisia beat Uganda 3-1 in the most recent head-to-head in December 2025
• Tunisia have drawn 2 of 9 competitive matches
• Uganda have drawn 2 of 12, including 1-1 with Tanzania at the last AFCON

BetBugs · Double ChancewonTunisia or DrawEstimated chance73%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tunisia's home pressure gives them the better chance of a first-half lead, though the margin is modest. Both teams score few first-half goals, which makes a level opening period the single most likely outcome.

• Tunisia average 0.67 first-half goals and 0.78 conceded per competitive match
• Uganda average 0.33 first-half goals conceded per competitive match
• Uganda average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.33 conceded per competitive match
• Tunisia have been level at half-time in 2 of their last 6 competitive matches

BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTunisia or DrawEstimated chance74%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30

The read

Both teams have found the net in the large majority of their recent matches, so both scoring is the more likely outcome.

• Tunisia have scored in 7 of 9 competitive matches and kept only one clean sheet
• Uganda have scored in all six of their most recent competitive matches
• Uganda's away split shows them scoring in all five away matches
• Tunisia's home split shows the opposition scoring in all four home matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tunisia's scoring output has been limited to a single goal in most recent games.

• Tunisia scored one or zero in four of their last six matches
• Tunisia's home split shows 1.0 goals per home game
• Uganda's away split shows 1.6 goals conceded per away match

BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonTunisia under 1.5Estimated chance68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Uganda's goals are spread one per game rather than clustered, making a single goal or fewer the likely return.

• Uganda scored exactly one goal in five of their last six competitive matches
• Uganda have scored 10 goals in 12 competitive matches
• Uganda's away split is 1.8 goals per away match across five games

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonUganda under 1.5Estimated chance70%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Both teams have been involved in first halves with goals regularly, so at least one goal before the break is the likely result.

• Tunisia average 0.67 first-half goals for and 0.78 against per competitive match
• Uganda average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.33 against per competitive match
• Tunisia conceded at least one first-half goal in 4 of their last 6 competitive matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Tunisia concede in almost every match and Uganda score in nearly all of theirs, so the away side finding the net is the strong likelihood.

• Tunisia have kept one clean sheet in nine competitive matches
• Tunisia have conceded 2.22 goals per competitive match
• Uganda scored in each of their six most recent competitive matches

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonUganda to scoreEstimated chance85%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined corner counts in these teams' tracked matches sit around eight, so the over is a marginal favourite.

• Tunisia average 4.17 corners for and 3.83 against across six tracked matches
• Uganda average 3.67 corners for and 4.67 against across three tracked matches
• The December 2025 meeting produced 10 corners

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tunisia's matches consistently produce plenty of shots at both ends, which pushes the total above the line.

• Tunisia's matches average 20.2 total shots (7.83 for, 12.33 against) across six tracked games
• Uganda's matches average 18.0 total shots (6.67 for, 11.33 against) across three tracked games
• Tunisia's last six total shot counts were 30, 13, 19, 12, 23 and 24 (newest first)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams' matches regularly clear six shots on target combined, making the over the stronger side.

• Tunisia's matches average 7.17 shots on target in total (2.67 for, 4.5 against)
• Uganda's tracked matches average 6.67 shots on target in total
• All three of Uganda's tracked matches had seven shots on target combined