Africa Cup of Nations QualificationFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Zimbabwe1Congo DR2

HT 0–2Mon 28 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions11–569%

Edges1–233%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 13–13On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Sep 2026, 04:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Group E's second matchday is level on points, so DR Congo and Zimbabwe meet in Harare with the visitors only ahead on goal difference.

DR Congo look the stronger side, with seven wins in 11 competitive matches and six clean sheets, but they have conceded in four of their last seven away. Their 1.45 win price asks for about 69%; the 1.6 on fewer than three goals and the 1.53 on both teams not scoring also ask for more than the record supports.

Context

Zimbabwe have staged home qualifiers abroad for five years, so this is their first competitive home match in front of their own crowd, with roughly 30,000 advance tickets sold and one carriageway of Bulawayo Road closing on matchday. The renovated National Sports Stadium, now under new floodlights and CAF Category 3 approval, changes the conditions of the fixture compared with the neutral-ground venues the Warriors have used. The limitation is that no current evidence exists about how this Zimbabwe side performs at the ground, as their last competitive home game came in 2021.
- Zimbabwe last played an international match at home on 14 November 2021, a 1-1 draw with Ethiopia in a World Cup qualifier at the National Sports Stadium.
- The stadium lost its international approval after that match and the Warriors staged home fixtures abroad for nearly five years before it regained CAF Category 3 approval.
- About 30,000 advance tickets had been sold by 23 September, and one carriageway of Bulawayo Road closes near the stadium on matchday.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 04:30 · Europe/Bucharest
In his debut, Catalá's Zimbabwe pressed higher after half-time against a deep Sierra Leone line and scored three second-half goals, the clearest early signal of how he wants the team to play. The DR Congo match is only his second in charge and his first at home, with a squad built around Europe-based players plus four from the domestic league and just one camp of preparation. One game against a lower-ranked opponent is thin evidence that the same approach holds against a side that reached the 2026 World Cup.
- Ramón Catalá took charge of Zimbabwe for the first time on 24 September 2026 and oversaw a 3-2 comeback win over Sierra Leone, his side having trailed 2-0 at half-time.
- Catalá named a 23-man Zimbabwe squad for the opening qualifiers against Sierra Leone and DR Congo, including four locally based players.
- Zimbabwe's foreign-based contingent assembled in Casablanca during the camp before the Sierra Leone fixture.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 04:30 · Europe/Bucharest
DR Congo opened with a controlled home win and travel to Harare on three points, their goals coming from established Europe-based players — Mbemba finishing a Mbuku delivery and Wissa a move involving Wan-Bissaka. That attacking quality, together with the squad's recent 2026 World Cup experience, sets the standard Zimbabwe must match. The specific unknown is rotation: Desabre named a separate, heavily altered group for the two Uganda friendlies that follow this trip, so he can manage minutes across the window.
- DR Congo beat Equatorial Guinea 2-0 in Kinshasa on 24 September 2026 in the Group E opener, with Chancel Mbemba scoring after four minutes and Yoane Wissa in the second half.
- Chancel Mbemba converted a Nathanaël Mbuku delivery, and Yoane Wissa finished a combination with Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
- DR Congo were 2026 World Cup finalists and had the Camp des Martyrs crowd restricted by CAF for the Equatorial Guinea match.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 04:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Both sides won their opening qualifiers, so they meet level on points with DR Congo ahead only on goal difference and the group's other two teams already adrift. A win would put either nation in early command of Group E, which is likely to shape how much each risks going forward against a direct rival. The anchor is only the second of the group's matchdays, so the table can still swing sharply over the remaining fixtures.
- Zimbabwe beat Sierra Leone 3-2 and DR Congo beat Equatorial Guinea 2-0 on the opening matchday of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers.
- DR Congo lead Group E on goal difference with Zimbabwe second on three points; Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone are a point behind.
- Group E also includes Equatorial Guinea and Sierra Leone, and the 2027 finals are co-hosted by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Sep 2026, 04:30 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams to ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

−7.4ppshort

Congo's clean-sheet rate and Zimbabwe's modest scoring output make a blank for the hosts a strong possibility.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Both teams' scoring averages sit below three goals a match and DR Congo have been difficult to break down.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Congo DR

1.45fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 69%

−19.0ppshort

DR Congo have the stronger record at both ends, World Cup experience and a settled squad while Zimbabwe rebuild under a new coach.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.45
The read
DR Congo have the stronger record at both ends, World Cup experience and a settled squad while Zimbabwe rebuild under a new coach.
- DR Congo: 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 11 competitive matches
- 0.55 goals conceded per competitive match with 6 clean sheets
- Away window: 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 0.71 conceded in 7 matches
- 2026 World Cup finalists; won the last meeting with Zimbabwe 4-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCongo DREstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves have been low-scoring, with Congo rarely conceding before the break.
- Zimbabwe's first halves average 1.0 total goals
- DR Congo's first halves average 0.91 total goals
- Congo conceded first-half goals in 2 of 11 competitive matches
- Zimbabwe scored a first-half goal in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Two low-scoring teams with little separating them in the group table make a share of the points a plausible outcome. DR Congo have the stronger record at both ends, World Cup experience and a settled squad while Zimbabwe rebuild under a new coach.
- Zimbabwe have drawn 2 of 8 competitive matches
- DR Congo have drawn 3 of their 7 away matches
- DR Congo: 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 11 competitive matches
- 0.55 goals conceded per competitive match with 6 clean sheets
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Congo DREstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves have been low-scoring, with Congo rarely conceding before the break. Congo score first-half goals more often than their opponents and Zimbabwe have been slow starters.
- Zimbabwe's first halves average 1.0 total goals
- DR Congo's first halves average 0.91 total goals
- DR Congo average 0.73 first-half goals scored, 0.18 conceded
- Away they average 0.71 first-half goals scored, 0.14 conceded
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or Congo DREstimated chance86%

Goals6 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Both teams' scoring averages sit below three goals a match and DR Congo have been difficult to break down.
- Zimbabwe matches average 2.25 total goals, DR Congo 1.91
- DR Congo concede 0.55 per competitive match with 6 clean sheets in 11
- Zimbabwe average 0.88 goals for per competitive match
- Zimbabwe drew 0-0 with South Africa at home in October 2025
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Congo's clean-sheet rate and Zimbabwe's modest scoring output make a blank for the hosts a strong possibility.
- DR Congo kept 6 clean sheets in 11 competitive matches
- DR Congo conceded 5 goals in 11 competitive matches
- Zimbabwe average 0.88 goals for per competitive match
- Zimbabwe's home window shows 0.67 goals for across 3 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zimbabwe rarely reach two goals and face one of the tighter defences in the group.
- Zimbabwe's competitive scoring average is 0.88 goals per match
- DR Congo concede 0.55 per competitive match with 6 clean sheets in 11
- Zimbabwe's home window shows 0.67 goals for in 3 matches
- DR Congo away window: 0.71 goals conceded per match
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonZimbabwe under 1.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Congo's goals often come in ones and twos, and a tight away qualifier looks likely.
- DR Congo average 1.36 goals for per competitive match, 1.14 away
- Zimbabwe kept 1 clean sheet in 8 competitive matches
- DR Congo scored 0 or 1 in three of their last six competitive matches
- Congo's away window: 3 wins in 7 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCongo DR under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Congo's scoring consistency makes a Zimbabwe clean sheet unlikely.
- DR Congo have scored in 10 of 11 competitive matches
- Congo average 1.36 goals for per competitive match
- Zimbabwe kept 1 clean sheet in 8 competitive matches
- Zimbabwe's home window shows 1.33 goals against per match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCongo DR to scoreEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Congo have conceded in more than half of their away matches and Zimbabwe can find a goal at home.
- Zimbabwe scored 3 in their most recent qualifier
- DR Congo conceded in 4 of their 7 away matches
- Congo's away concession average is 0.71 per match
- Zimbabwe average 0.88 goals for per competitive match
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonZimbabwe to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Congo's away record includes four matches where they conceded, so a win with a clean sheet is not the most likely path.
- DR Congo conceded in 4 of their 7 away matches
- Congo lost twice and drew once in their last six competitive matches
- Zimbabwe scored 3 in their most recent qualifier
- Zimbabwe average 0.88 goals for per competitive match
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first halves produce close to a goal on average, so one before the break is the slightly more likely outcome.
- Zimbabwe first-half totals average 1.0 goals per match
- DR Congo first-half totals average 0.91 per match
- A first-half goal was scored in 7 of the teams' combined last 12 competitive matches
- Zimbabwe's last match had two first-half goals
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Congo almost never concede before the break and Zimbabwe's first-half scoring is limited.
- DR Congo conceded first-half goals in 2 of 11 competitive matches (0.18 per match)
- Congo's away first-half concession average is 0.14
- Zimbabwe scored a first-half goal in 3 of their last 6 competitive matches
- Zimbabwe's home window shows 0.33 first-half goals for per match
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance90%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zimbabwe's matches produce plenty of corners, mainly for opponents, and Congo can push the total past the line.
- Zimbabwe matches average 10.4 total corners (5 matches)
- DR Congo matches average 7.4 total corners (8 matches); away 7.2 (5 matches)
- Zimbabwe concede 6.4 corners per match
- Congo took 4 corners in their opening qualifier
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zimbabwe's matches have been shot-heavy at both ends and Congo's away matches sit close to the line.
- Zimbabwe matches average 31.2 total shots (11.4 for, 19.8 against, 5 matches)
- DR Congo matches average 22.9 total shots (8 matches)
- Congo away total 23.4 shots across 5 matches
- Zimbabwe conceded 20 shots per match in their home window
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zimbabwe concede plenty of shots on target and their matches average close to ten, so the line is within reach.
- Zimbabwe matches average 9.6 total shots on target (3.2 for, 6.4 against, 5 matches)
- DR Congo matches average 6.5 total shots on target (8 matches); away 7.0 (5 matches)
- Zimbabwe conceded 6.0 shots on target per home match
- Congo's opponents average 3.25 shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance63%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 1W

L0-4ZimbabwevCongo DRJun 30, 2019AFR

D1-1ZimbabwevCongo DROct 16, 2018AFR

W1-2Congo DRvZimbabweOct 13, 2018AFR

3 goals/game avg

Recent Form

Zimbabwe

W3-2Sierra LeoneSep 24AFR

W1-0IndiaMay 30FRI

L0-2NigeriaMay 26FRI

W1-0Zambia U23Mar 31FRI

W3-0BotswanaMar 28FRI

L2-3South AfricaDec 29AFR

D1-1AngolaDec 26AFR

L1-2EgyptDec 22AFR

W2-1QatarNov 17FRI

L1-3AlgeriaNov 13FRI

L0-1LesothoOct 13WOR

D0-0South AfricaOct 10WOR

L0-1RwandaSep 9WOR

L0-1BeninSep 5WOR

D1-1NigerJun 10FRI

Congo DR

W2-0Equatorial GuineaSep 24AFR

L1-2EnglandJul 1WOR

W3-1UzbekistanJun 27WOR

L0-1ColombiaJun 24WOR

D1-1PortugalJun 17WOR

L1-2ChileJun 9FRI

D0-0DenmarkJun 3FRI

W2-0BermudaMar 25FRI

W3-0BotswanaDec 30AFR

D1-1SenegalDec 27AFR

W1-0BeninDec 23AFR

W2-0ZambiaDec 16FRI

W1-0CameroonNov 13WOR

W1-0SudanOct 14WOR

W1-0TogoOct 10WOR

Squad & Injuries

Zimbabwe

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Congo DR

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3