Liga NacionalFull time

Predictions graded

Juticalpa FC3CD Marathon2

HT 2–2Mon 21 Sept 2026, 01:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–1029%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 00:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Marathón are rightly favoured — unbeaten in seven league games and unbeaten away against a bottom side that has lost three of four at home — but their Thursday trip to Costa Rica adds fatigue risk.

The standout value is first-half double chance Draw or Marathón at 1.95 (model 78% vs 51% implied), while the away win at 1.43 offers only a thin edge and first-half under 1.5 goals at 1.43 is a clear avoid.

Context

Juticalpa are 12th in the 12-team Apertura table, with 1 win, 0 draws and 6 defeats from 7 matches. They have conceded 17 goals, more than any other team in the division.
Their 5 goals scored is also the joint-lowest in the league, so the problem is at both ends. Recent results show the pattern clearly: a 3-0 home loss to Génesis on 7 September and a 3-1 home defeat by CD Olimpia on 9 August. The one bright spot was a 1-0 home win over Lobos Upnfm on 29 August, so Juticalpa can be competitive at home when they keep the game tight. Against the league leaders, though, they will need to defend far better than their season average of 2.2 goals conceded per game.
- Juticalpa are 12th in the Apertura with 3 points from 7 matches (1 win, 0 draws, 6 defeats).
- They have scored 5 and conceded 17, giving them a goal difference of -12.
- Their home record is 1 win and 3 defeats from 4 games, with 2 goals scored and 9 conceded.
CD Marathon are 1st in the Apertura with 5 wins and 2 draws from 7 matches. They have scored 12 and conceded 3, the best defensive record in the division.
Their away record of 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 games shows they can pick up results on the road, and they have conceded only 2 goals in those matches. Recent league results include a 1-0 home win over CD Olimpia on 13 September and a 5-0 home win over Estrella Roja on 6 September. The main counterweight is their CONCACAF Central American Cup involvement: they lost 3-1 away to LD Alajuelense on 18 September, just two days before this match, which may affect rotation or fatigue.
- Marathon are 1st in the Apertura with 17 points from 7 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats).
- They have scored 12 and conceded 3, giving them a goal difference of +9.
- Their away record is 2 wins and 1 draw from 3 games, with 4 goals scored and 2 conceded.
The last five meetings between these teams include three Marathon wins and two Juticalpa wins, all in Liga Nacional. The most recent was on 18 March 2026, when Marathon won 4-0 away at Juticalpa.
Juticalpa's wins in this run were both at home: 3-0 on 29 January 2026 and 7-0 on 27 July 2025, showing they can beat Marathon heavily when hosting. However, Marathon also won 3-1 away at Juticalpa on 4 October 2025, so the away side has recent success at this venue too. The head-to-head record is mixed but leans toward Marathon overall, with the 4-0 result in March 2026 the most recent and most one-sided.
- 18 March 2026: CD Marathon won 4-0 away at Juticalpa in Liga Nacional.
- 29 January 2026: Juticalpa won 3-0 away at CD Marathon in Liga Nacional.
- 4 October 2025: CD Marathon won 3-1 away at Juticalpa in Liga Nacional.
Jhon Jairo López is Juticalpa FC's head coach, appointed to replace the previous staff and in charge for the 14 September league match at Independiente.
With only that one match under López, selection and defensive organisation for this first home fixture remain less predictable than the earlier results alone suggest. The confirmed change means Juticalpa's shape and starting lineup carry genuine uncertainty, which is a modest counterweight to Marathón's stronger form and away record.
- Juticalpa's board told Deportes TVC that López would take charge for the 14 September league match at Independiente.
- The 14 September match record lists Jhon Jairo López as Juticalpa's coach.
- A 19 September local preview identifies López as the coach receiving Marathón at home.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 00:46 · Europe/BucharestDeportes TVC: Juticalpa confirm López's arrival and debutwww.deportestvc.com · 9 Sep 2026Fútbol de Honduras match previewhondurasfutbol.com · 19 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Large table-quality gap plus Marathon's unbeaten away record and recent H2H dominance (3 wins in last 5, including 4-0 and 3-1 at Juticalpa) outweigh the home venue edge for a bottom side conceding 2.2 goals per game.
- Marathon lead the Apertura: 17 pts from 7 (5W 2D 0L), 12 goals for, 3 against, +9 GD.
- Juticalpa are bottom (rank 12): 3 pts from 7 (1W 0D 6L), 5 scored, 17 conceded, -12 GD.
- Marathon away record 2W 1D 0L (4 GF, 2 GA); Juticalpa home record 1W 0D 3L (2 GF, 9 GA).
- H2H last 5: Marathon won 3 (4-0, 3-1, 3-0 away wins), Juticalpa won 2 home meetings.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCD MarathonEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Marathon's unbeaten league and away profile against a bottom-placed side with a 0.8 goals-per-game attack makes a non-loss outcome the dominant scenario, with only the home venue and coaching transition as modest counterweights.
- Marathon unbeaten in 7 league games (5W 2D) and unbeaten away (2W 1D).
- Juticalpa have lost 6 of 7 league matches and 3 of 4 at home.
- Juticalpa average 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded across last 15.
- Marathon concede only 0.7 per game across last 15.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or CD MarathonEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' low first-half scoring and high half-time draw rates make a level opening 45 minutes the single most likely first-half outcome.
- Juticalpa were level at half-time in 9 of last 15 matches.
- Marathon were level at half-time in 7 of last 15 matches.
- Juticalpa average 0.3 first-half goals; Marathon 0.7.
- Marathon trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marathon's quality and Juticalpa's tendency to concede heavily late make the visitors the most likely second-half winner, though fatigue from the Thursday trip to Costa Rica tempers confidence.
- Marathon's superior overall quality (17 pts vs 3) and 1.5 goals per game.
- Juticalpa conceded 2.2 per game with heavy second-half collapses (0-4, 1-6).
- Marathon unbeaten away (2W 1D) with 4 goals in 3 away league games.
- Juticalpa's only home win was a narrow 1-0.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostCD MarathonEstimated chance50%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Juticalpa rarely lead at the break (13%) while Marathon seldom trail (13%), so a half-time result favouring the visitors or a draw is strongly supported.
- Juticalpa led at half-time in only 13% of matches and trailed in 27%.
- Marathon trailed at half-time in just 13% of matches.
- Juticalpa average 0.3 first-half goals.
- Marathon average 0.7 first-half goals with 0.3 conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or CD MarathonEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A level half-time followed by a Marathon win fits both the high half-time draw rate and Marathon's superior second-half quality, though the exact HT/FT combination is inherently lower probability.
- Marathon unbeaten in 7 league games and unbeaten away.
- Juticalpa level at half-time in 9 of last 15 matches.
- Marathon's quality gap: +9 GD vs -12 GD.
- Marathon scored 12 and conceded 3 in the league this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / CD MarathonEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marathon's multi-goal H2H wins and Juticalpa's heavy home concession rate make a two-goal margin plausible, though the short recovery from Costa Rica adds risk to a handicap cover.
- Marathon won 3 of last 5 H2H, including 4-0 and 3-1 away at Juticalpa.
- Juticalpa conceded 2.2 per game and lost 3 of 4 home games.
- Marathon average 1.5 goals per game with 0.7 conceded.
- Juticalpa's home defeats include 0-3 and 1-3 scorelines.
BetBugs · Asian HandicaplostCD Marathon -1Estimated chance52%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Juticalpa's leaky defence (2.2 conceded per game) and the historically high-scoring H2H (all last 5 meetings 3+ goals) push the total up, though Marathon's strong defensive record caps confidence.
- Juticalpa's last 15 average 3.0 total goals (0.8 for, 2.2 against).
- Marathon's last 15 average 2.2 total goals (1.5 for, 0.7 against).
- Recent H2H totals: 4, 3, 4, 7, 4 goals in last 5 meetings.
- Juticalpa conceded 3+ in 5 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marathon's low concession rate (0.7 per game) against a Juticalpa attack averaging 0.8 goals and blanked in 40% of recent games makes a clean sheet for the visitors the slightly favoured side of this binary.
- Marathon have kept clean sheets in 8 of last 15 matches and concede 0.7 per game.
- Juticalpa scored 0 goals in 6 of their last 15 matches.
- Juticalpa home record: 2 goals in 4 home league games.
- H2H last 5: Juticalpa failed to score in 3 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marathon's defensive solidity and Juticalpa's weak home scoring output (0.5 goals per home game) support a plausible away clean sheet, though the home side's occasional single-goal games keep this below even money.
- Marathon concede 0.7 goals per game across last 15.
- Juticalpa scored 0 in 6 of last 15 and managed just 2 goals in 4 home league games.
- Marathon kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- H2H: Juticalpa blanked in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostJuticalpa FC not to scoreEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Marathon's 1.5 goals-per-game average against a defence conceding 2.2 makes a two-goal away haul more likely than not, supported by their recent 5-0 and 3-0 scorelines.
- Marathon average 1.5 goals per game across last 15.
- Marathon scored 2+ in 6 of their last 15 matches, including 5-0 and 3-0 wins.
- Juticalpa conceded 2.2 per game and shipped 3+ in 5 of last 15.
- Marathon away league record: 4 goals in 3 away games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonCD Marathon over 1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' low first-half scoring averages (0.3 and 0.7) and Juticalpa's habit of reaching half-time level point to a quiet opening period, with the game's goals more likely after the break.
- Juticalpa average 0.3 first-half goals and 0.7 first-half goals conceded across last 15.
- Marathon average 0.7 first-half goals and 0.3 first-half goals conceded.
- Juticalpa were level at half-time in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Marathon led at half-time in only 40% of matches and trailed in 13%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams' first-half output low but total-goal rates high, the second half carries the bulk of expected scoring, reinforced by Juticalpa's heavy late-game concessions in recent defeats.
- Juticalpa's last 15 average 3.0 total goals with only 1.0 coming in first halves.
- Marathon scored 3 of their 5 goals against Estrella Roja after half-time patterns show late scoring.
- Juticalpa conceded 2+ second-half goals in several heavy defeats (0-4, 1-6, 2-5).
- H2H last 5 produced 3+ total goals in every meeting.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Marathon's clean-sheet frequency and Juticalpa's weak home scoring make an away win without conceding a realistic but not dominant outcome, given Juticalpa's occasional single-goal home games.
- Marathon kept clean sheets in 8 of last 15 matches.
- Juticalpa scored 0 in 6 of last 15 and just 2 in 4 home league games.
- H2H: Marathon won 4-0 and 3-0 away at Juticalpa.
- Marathon concede 0.7 per game.
BetBugs · Away Win to NillostYesEstimated chance34%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 14% vs our 12% estimate; the bottom side's 1W-0D-6L record and 2.2 goals conceded per game leave no cushion.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W0-4JuticalpavCD MarathonMar 18, 2026LIG

L3-0CD MarathonvJuticalpaJan 29, 2026LIG

W1-3JuticalpavCD MarathonOct 4, 2025LIG

L7-0CD MarathonvJuticalpaJul 27, 2025LIG

L4-0CD MarathonvJuticalpaMar 6, 2025LIG

CD Marathon: 3 clean sheets4.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Juticalpa FC	7	1	0	6	5-17	3	LLWLL
1	CD Marathon	7	5	2	0	12-3	17	WWWDW

14pt gap between teamsCD Marathon leads the league

Recent Form

Juticalpa FC

L1-2Atletico IndependienteSep 14LIG

L0-3GénesisSep 7LIG

W1-0Lobos UpnfmAug 29LIG

L2-5Estrella RojaAug 22LIG

L0-1OlanchoAug 17LIG

L1-3CD OlimpiaAug 9LIG

L0-3CD MotaguaAug 2LIG

W1-0Lobos UpnfmApr 27LIG

L1-2VictoriaApr 22LIG

L1-2CD MotaguaApr 19LIG

D1-1Platense FCApr 16LIG

L0-4OlanchoApr 9LIG

D1-1Real EspanaApr 7LIG

W1-0GénesisApr 2LIG

L1-6CD OlimpiaMar 23LIG

CD Marathon

L1-3LD AlajuelenseSep 18CON

W1-0CD OlimpiaSep 13LIG

D2-2LD AlajuelenseSep 11CON

W5-0Estrella RojaSep 6LIG

W2-1GénesisAug 29LIG

W3-0Real EstelíAug 27CON

D1-1Real EspanaAug 23LIG

L0-1AlianzaAug 20CON

W1-0Atlético CholomaAug 16LIG

W3-0Antigua GFCAug 14CON

D1-1Platense FCAug 8LIG

W1-0Atletico IndependienteAug 4LIG

D0-0CS HeredianoJul 31CON

D1-1CD MotaguaMay 22LIG

D1-1Real EspanaMay 19LIG

Squad & Injuries

Juticalpa FC

39 available

Attackers11

Midfielders11

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

CD Marathon

37 available

Attackers12

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

CD Marathon

Draw

Draw or CD Marathon

Over 2.5

Draw or CD Marathon

No

Under 1.5

Result2 of 7 landed

Goals2 of 7 landed

Markets to Avoid

Juticalpa FC

Under 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Juticalpa FC

CD Marathon

Squad & Injuries

Juticalpa FC

CD Marathon