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Predictions graded

CD Marathon1CD Olimpia0

HT 0–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 23:15 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 06:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Top-of-the-table derby with both teams unbeaten and managing continental cup fatigue.

The only positive edge is Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.75, with a 60% model probability vs 57.1% implied; avoid the home win and first-half goals markets due to negative value.

Context

CD Marathon are third in the Apertura with 14 points from six matches, while CD Olimpia are second with the same points but a better goal difference.
Marathon have won their last three home league games against Olimpia, most recently 1-0 on 16 May 2026. That run includes a 2-1 win on 1 March 2026 and a 2-1 win on 23 April 2026. Olimpia did win the most recent meeting between the sides, 2-0 at home on 7 May 2026, but their away record in this fixture is poor. This pattern suggests Marathon are comfortable at home against Olimpia, though the sample is limited to recent seasons.
- CD Marathon beat CD Olimpia 1-0 at home on 16 May 2026.
- CD Marathon beat CD Olimpia 2-1 at home on 1 March 2026.
- CD Marathon beat CD Olimpia 2-1 at home on 23 April 2026.
Marathón and Olimpia began matchday seven level on 14 points and without a league defeat.
The fixture has immediate first-place implications beyond the rivalry. That strengthens the incentive to pursue the result rather than treat the match as a routine rotation opportunity, even with continental commitments on either side.
- A 6 September league preview listed Marathón and Olimpia, alongside Real España, level at the top.
- The preview stated that Marathón and Olimpia were both unbeaten on 14 points before their direct meeting.
ReportedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 06:27 · Europe/BucharestMi Pasión HN — Jornada 7 league previewmipasionhn.com · 6 Sep 2026
CD Olimpia are second in the Apertura with 14 points from six matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding six.
Olimpia have scored 15 goals in six league matches, the highest total in the division. They have won four and drawn two, including a 4-1 home win over Platense FC on 4 September 2026 and a 3-1 away win at Juticalpa on 9 August 2026. Their attack has been consistent, but they have also conceded six goals, which could give Marathon chances. This scoring form makes Olimpia dangerous, especially against a Marathon side that has conceded only three goals.
- CD Olimpia have scored 15 goals in 6 league matches, the most in the league.
- CD Olimpia beat Platense FC 4-1 at home on 4 September 2026.
- CD Olimpia beat Juticalpa 3-1 away on 9 August 2026.
CD Marathon are third in the Apertura with 14 points from six matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding only three.
Marathon have conceded only three goals in six league matches, the fewest in the division. They have kept clean sheets in three of those games, including a 1-0 home win over Atletico Independiente on 4 August 2026 and a 1-0 away win at Atlético Choloma on 16 August 2026. Their defence will be tested by Olimpia's attack, but this record shows they are hard to break down. The low goals against suggests a tight match is possible.
- CD Marathon have conceded 3 goals in 6 league matches, the fewest in the league.
- CD Marathon kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 home win over Atletico Independiente on 4 August 2026.
- CD Marathon kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 away win at Atlético Choloma on 16 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

CD Marathon

2.20fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 45.5%

0.0ppshort

Home advantage and a perfect home-team H2H trend support CD Marathon, but Olimpia's strong away form keeps the probability moderate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goals average 1.6 per match, but the odds already price a high likelihood of at least one goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and a perfect home-team H2H trend support CD Marathon, but Olimpia's strong away form keeps the probability moderate.
- CD Marathon home record in league: 2W 1D 0L, 7 goals for, 1 against
- CD Olimpia away record in league: 1W 2D 0L, 6 goals for, 4 against
- H2H last 5: home team won all 5 meetings
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCD MarathonEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Marathon's unbeaten run and strong home form make them unlikely to lose, while the H2H home dominance further supports this double chance.
- CD Marathon unbeaten in last 15 matches (8W 7D)
- CD Marathon home league record: 2W 1D 0L
- H2H last 5: home team won all 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCD Marathon or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first-half dominance, and the derby stakes may lead to a cautious start.
- CD Marathon leading at half time in 47% of matches
- CD Olimpia leading at half time in 53% of matches
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full-time draw is possible given both teams' unbeaten records, but the H2H trend of home wins reduces confidence.
- CD Marathon draws in 7 of last 15 matches
- CD Olimpia draws in 3 of last 15 matches
- H2H last 5: no draw results
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance15%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong attacking records, with Olimpia averaging over 2 goals per game, pushing the total above 2.5.
- CD Marathon average goals for: 1.5, against: 0.7
- CD Olimpia average goals for: 2.1, against: 1.2
- Combined average goals per match: 2.75
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net, and recent head-to-head meetings have seen goals at both ends.
- CD Marathon scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- CD Olimpia scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 4 of last 5 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- CD Marathon first half goals average: 0.7
- CD Olimpia first half goals average: 0.9
- Combined first half goals average: 1.6
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common for both teams, but the probability is only moderate due to potential fatigue from midweek continental matches.
- CD Marathon second half goals average: 0.8
- CD Olimpia second half goals average: 1.2
- Combined second half goals average: 2.0
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpia's consistent scoring makes a Marathon clean sheet unlikely.
- CD Olimpia scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- CD Marathon conceded in 7 of last 15 matches
- CD Olimpia away goals average: 2.0
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCD Olimpia to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marathon's home scoring record suggests they will breach Olimpia's defense.
- CD Marathon scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- CD Olimpia conceded in 9 of last 15 matches
- CD Marathon home goals average: 2.3
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostCD Marathon to scoreEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W1-0CD MarathonvCD OlimpiaMay 16, 2026LIG

L2-0CD OlimpiavCD MarathonMay 7, 2026LIG

L2-1CD OlimpiavCD MarathonApr 23, 2026LIG

W2-1CD MarathonvCD OlimpiaMar 1, 2026LIG

L1-0CD OlimpiavCD MarathonJan 8, 2026LIG

CD Olimpia: 2 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Nacional 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
3	CD Marathon	6	4	2	0	11-3	14	WWDWD
2	CD Olimpia	6	4	2	0	15-6	14	WDDWW

Recent Form

CD Marathon

D2-2LD AlajuelenseSep 11CON

W5-0Estrella RojaSep 6LIG

W2-1GénesisAug 29LIG

W3-0Real EstelíAug 27CON

D1-1Real EspanaAug 23LIG

L0-1AlianzaAug 20CON

W1-0Atlético CholomaAug 16LIG

W3-0Antigua GFCAug 14CON

D1-1Platense FCAug 8LIG

W1-0Atletico IndependienteAug 4LIG

D0-0CS HeredianoJul 31CON

D1-1CD MotaguaMay 22LIG

D1-1Real EspanaMay 19LIG

W1-0CD OlimpiaMay 16LIG

L0-2CD OlimpiaMay 7LIG

CD Olimpia

W3-0FirpoSep 11CON

W4-1Platense FCSep 4LIG

D2-2Estrella RojaAug 30LIG

W2-1Deportivo SaprissaAug 28CON

D1-1OlanchoAug 23LIG

W3-1Alianza FCAug 21CON

W3-1CD MotaguaAug 16LIG

W3-1JuticalpaAug 9LIG

W2-1UMECITAug 6CON

W2-0Lobos UpnfmAug 3LIG

W2-0MixcoJul 29CON

L0-3Houston DynamoJul 11FRI

L0-1CD MarathonMay 16LIG

W3-2Real EspanaMay 13LIG

L1-3Real EspanaMay 10LIG

Squad & Injuries

CD Marathon

37 available

Attackers12

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

CD Olimpia

33 available

Attackers13

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3