Draw or CD Marathon
Market 69.9% · BetBugs 75%
Choloma have failed to win any of their last 5 matches while Marathon are unbeaten in their last 5, making Draw or Marathon a high-probability outcome.
Liga NacionalFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Back Draw or CD Marathon at 1.43 (edge +5.1pts) and Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 (edge +13.5pts).
Avoid the straight Marathon win at 1.43 — the price implies 69.9% but our model sees only 45%, with Choloma's home H2H resilience a key factor.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 5
Market 69.9% · BetBugs 75%
Choloma have failed to win any of their last 5 matches while Marathon are unbeaten in their last 5, making Draw or Marathon a high-probability outcome.
Market 33.3% · BetBugs 50%
Both teams often start evenly, with Choloma level at HT in 3 of last 5 and H2H showing 3 of 5 level at the break.
Market 46.5% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams have modest scoring records and the H2H trend is low-scoring, making under 2.5 goals the more probable outcome.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 69.9% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | CD Choloma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1-4 | 0 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2-1 | 4 |

