Sparta Rotterdam0Heerenveen4

HT 0–2Sat 19 Sept 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 11–23On targetOn target 0–9CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 17:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Both teams are missing key players, but recent scoring trends suggest an open match.

The only clear value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.05, where our 55% estimate beats the 48.8% implied probability. Avoid Over 2.5, BTTS Yes, and Over 0.5 first-half goals, as the odds are too short relative to our model.

Context

Sparta Rotterdam are 12th in the Eredivisie with 5 points from 6 matches.
Their home record shows 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from 3 games, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. This suggests they have struggled to turn home advantage into wins, and Heerenveen may feel they can get a result at Sparta's ground.
- Sparta Rotterdam home record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 3 matches.
- They drew 2-2 with PEC Zwolle on 2026-09-04 and 3-3 with Utrecht on 2026-08-22, and lost 0-1 to Feyenoord on 2026-08-09.
Sparta Rotterdam midfielder S. Mito is confirmed out for the coming period.
His absence narrows Sparta's available attacking selection for the home match against Heerenveen. The club has not named a direct replacement, so the coaching staff will need to adjust the midfield or forward setup.
- Sparta's 13 September match report said S. Mito cannot play for the coming period because of injury.
- The same report identified Heerenveen at Het Kasteel as Sparta's next match.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 17:42 · Europe/BucharestSparta Rotterdam match report: PSV - Spartawww.sparta-rotterdam.nl · 13 Sep 2026
Heerenveen are 11th in the Eredivisie with 6 points from 6 matches.
Their away record is 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses from 2 games, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded. They drew 2-2 at Willem II on 2026-08-30 and 2-2 at Ajax on 2026-08-16, indicating they are competitive away from home.
- Heerenveen away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in 2 matches.
- They drew 2-2 at Willem II on 2026-08-30 and 2-2 at Ajax on 2026-08-16.
Heerenveen midfielder D. Proper is not expected back quickly after an MRI showed damage.
His unresolved status leaves uncertainty over Heerenveen's central-midfield selection and build-up structure. Veldman said Proper's absence required midfield adjustments, so the team may continue with a reshaped midfield.
- Heerenveen said D. Proper was unavailable for the 13 September match against Telstar.
- Veldman said an MRI showed damage and that he did not expect Proper back very quickly.
- Veldman said Proper's absence required midfield adjustments.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 17:42 · Europe/Bucharestsc Heerenveen: Robin Veldman previews Telstarwww.sc-heerenveen.nl · 11 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.48fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 67.6%

0.0ppshort

Combined average total goals in recent matches is 3.5 for Sparta and 3.7 for Heerenveen, supporting over 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.45fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede, making BTTS likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have poor win rates and high draw tendencies, making a draw plausible.
- Sparta Rotterdam home record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in 3 home matches
- Heerenveen away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in 2 away matches
- Last H2H at Sparta Rotterdam: 0-3 Heerenveen win
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sparta Rotterdam are hard to beat at home, and Heerenveen have not won away, supporting home or draw.
- Sparta Rotterdam home record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
- Heerenveen away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
- Sparta Rotterdam lost only 1 of 3 home matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSparta Rotterdam or DrawEstimated chance62%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show high-scoring tendencies with combined averages above 3.5 goals, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per match over last 15
- Heerenveen averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match over last 15
- Combined average total goals in recent matches: 3.5 for Sparta, 3.7 for Heerenveen
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, making BTTS likely.
- Sparta Rotterdam scored in 11 of last 15 matches
- Heerenveen scored in 11 of last 15 matches
- Both teams conceded in 12 of last 15 matches each
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- Sparta Rotterdam first half goals average: 0.6 scored, 0.7 conceded
- Heerenveen first half goals average: 0.8 scored, 0.6 conceded
- Combined first half goal average: 1.4
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open with both teams scoring and conceding, supporting over 1.5 second half goals.
- Sparta Rotterdam second half goals average: 1.0 scored, 1.2 conceded
- Heerenveen second half goals average: 1.2 scored, 1.1 conceded
- Combined second half goal average: 2.2
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, with combined average above 11, making over 9.5 corners plausible.
- Sparta Rotterdam average corners per match: 5.8
- Heerenveen average corners per match: 5.5
- Combined average corners: 11.3
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 9 combined shots on target, making over 8.5 likely.
- Sparta Rotterdam average shots on target: 4.3
- Heerenveen average shots on target: 5.0
- Combined average shots on target: 9.3
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined average yellow cards is 3.0, making over 3.5 a borderline call.
- Sparta Rotterdam average yellow cards: 1.6
- Heerenveen average yellow cards: 1.4
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.0
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%