Gil Vicente1Maritimo1

HT 1–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 19–10On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 21:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Gil Vicente are favoured at home against a travel-weary Maritimo, but the odds offer no value on the main markets.

The best approach is to avoid betting on the match winner and consider low-scoring props like under 2.5 goals, though the edge is thin.

Context

Gil Vicente are 9th in the Primeira Liga with 7 points from 5 matches.
At home they have beaten Casa Pia 2-0 on 24 August and Rio Ave 1-0 on 9 August, with their only home loss coming against Academico Viseu 0-1 on 6 September. This suggests they are solid at home, but the loss to Academico Viseu shows they can be beaten by lower-ranked sides.
- Gil Vicente beat Casa Pia 2-0 at home on 24 August.
- Gil Vicente beat Rio Ave 1-0 at home on 9 August.
- Gil Vicente lost 0-1 at home to Academico Viseu on 6 September.
Gil Vicente left-back Weverson was replaced in the first half against Académico de Viseu with a muscle injury and missed the Benfica match, with David Moreira starting in his place.
His status remains a watch, so Gil Vicente may again need a different left-sided defensive selection. The lack of a confirmed recovery means the established left-back option is not guaranteed for this match.
- Flashscore reported that Weverson was replaced during the first half against Académico de Viseu and was recovering from a muscle injury before the Benfica match.
- A 15 September X post stated that David Moreira started against Benfica in place of Weverson because of injury.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:02 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore pre-match reportwww.flashscore.pt · 11 Sep 2026
Maritimo are 10th in the Primeira Liga with 7 points from 6 matches.
Away from home they lost 1-3 to Moreirense on 14 September and 1-2 to Arouca on 29 August, but did win 2-1 at Famalicao on 16 August. Their away defence has been leaky, which could give Gil Vicente chances.
- Maritimo lost 1-3 away to Moreirense on 14 September.
- Maritimo lost 1-2 away to Arouca on 29 August.
- Maritimo won 2-1 away at Famalicao on 16 August.
Marítimo played away at Moreirense on 14 September and now travel to Gil Vicente on 19 September.
The five-day gap between consecutive mainland away fixtures reduces recovery and travel preparation time. This compressed sequence is a confirmed scheduling constraint for the away side.
- Marítimo's official schedule set the Moreirense away fixture for 14 September at 20:15.
- The same official announcement set the Gil Vicente away fixture for 19 September at 15:30, five days later.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 21:02 · Europe/BucharestCS Marítimo fixture announcementcsmaritimo.pt · 4 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Gil Vicente or Draw

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Gil Vicente's strong home defensive record and Maritimo's poor away form make a home win or draw highly likely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have modest scoring records, and Gil Vicente's home games tend to be low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

No

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Gil Vicente's strong home defense and Maritimo's away scoring struggles make a clean sheet for the hosts plausible.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.40fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams show a tendency to score or concede after the break, making a second-half goal highly probable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gil Vicente's strong home defensive record and Maritimo's poor away form give the hosts a clear edge, supported by recent H2H success at home.
- Gil Vicente home record this season: 2W 0D 1L, 3 goals scored, 1 conceded in 3 home matches.
- Maritimo away record this season: 1W 0D 2L, 4 goals scored, 6 conceded in 3 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Gil Vicente won 2, Maritimo won 2, 1 draw; Gil Vicente won the most recent home meeting 2-0.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGil VicenteEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gil Vicente's solid home form and Maritimo's travel struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Gil Vicente home record: 2W 0D 1L, with only 1 goal conceded in 3 home matches.
- Maritimo away record: 1W 0D 2L, with 6 goals conceded in 3 away matches.
- Gil Vicente have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGil Vicente or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a pattern of first-half draws, especially Gil Vicente, making a level score at the break likely.
- Gil Vicente have been level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Maritimo have been level at half-time in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Gil Vicente average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gil Vicente's home advantage and Maritimo's second-half defensive lapses give the hosts a slight edge after the break.
- Gil Vicente have won the second half in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Maritimo have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Gil Vicente average 0.6 second-half goals scored vs 0.6 conceded.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonGil VicenteEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Gil Vicente win is a plausible scenario given their second-half home strength.
- Gil Vicente have been level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Gil Vicente have won 2 of their last 5 matches overall.
- Maritimo have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Gil VicenteEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest scoring records, and Gil Vicente's home games tend to be low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Gil Vicente average 1.1 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match this season.
- Maritimo average 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match this season.
- Gil Vicente home matches average 1.33 total goals; Maritimo away matches average 3.33 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gil Vicente's strong home defense and Maritimo's away scoring struggles make a clean sheet for the hosts plausible.
- Gil Vicente have kept 2 clean sheets in 3 home matches this season.
- Maritimo have failed to score in 2 of their 3 away matches this season.
- Gil Vicente average 1.1 goals conceded per match overall.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, making a goalless first half likely.
- Gil Vicente average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Maritimo average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Gil Vicente have been level at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show a tendency to score or concede after the break, making a second-half goal highly probable.
- Gil Vicente average 0.6 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Maritimo average 0.7 second-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- In Gil Vicente's last 5 matches, 4 had at least one second-half goal.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, with combined averages below 9.5, supporting an under on total corners.
- Gil Vicente average 4.5 corners per match and concede 4.5 corners per match.
- Maritimo average 3.4 corners per match and concede 5.0 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in Gil Vicente matches: 9.0; in Maritimo matches: 8.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce relatively few shots on target, with combined averages under 8.5, making an under likely.
- Gil Vicente average 4.1 shots on target per match and concede 3.5.
- Maritimo average 3.4 shots on target per match and concede 4.6.
- Combined average shots on target in Gil Vicente matches: 7.6; in Maritimo matches: 8.0.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate card counts, and the competitive nature of the match could push total cards over 4.5.
- Gil Vicente average 2.2 yellow cards per match and concede 2.0.
- Maritimo average 2.0 yellow cards per match and concede 2.4.
- Combined average cards in Gil Vicente matches: 4.2; in Maritimo matches: 4.4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%