CA Temperley3Club Almagro1

HT 1–1Sat 19 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–654%

Edges6–367%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 17:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Temperley's 9W-3D-2L home record and title-race incentive against Almagro's 3W-4D-7L away form make the home win the most likely result, with the 1.78 price offering a slim positive edge.

The clearest value is second-half Over 0.5 goals at 1.50, while short double-chance prices and Under 2.5 are priced beyond the model's estimate. Watch the unresolved Díaz and Souto availability situations before committing.

Context

Temperley are third in Group 2 of the Primera Nacional with 50 points from 29 games, holding a promotion play-off place. Their home record is nine wins, three draws and two defeats in fourteen matches, with 25 goals scored and 16 conceded at home.
That home output is nearly three times their away scoring rate of eight goals in fifteen away games, so Temperley's attacking threat is concentrated at their own ground. Almagro have conceded 20 goals in fourteen away matches, the joint-worst away defensive record in the group alongside Colegiales. The combination points to Temperley creating the better chances, though their recent 0-0 draw at Patronato shows they do not always convert territorial control into goals.
- Temperley home record: 9 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats in 14 games, 25 goals scored and 16 conceded.
- Temperley away record: 4 wins, 8 draws, 3 defeats in 15 games, 8 goals scored and 7 conceded.
- Almagro away record: 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats in 14 games, 9 goals scored and 20 conceded.
Temperley are third on 50 points after 29 matches, behind Tristán Suárez on 53 and Gimnasia de Jujuy on 52, and the 2026 regulations send only the two zone winners to the first-promotion final.
That gap gives a home win direct value in closing on the only position that reaches the first-promotion final, rather than merely adding to a general points total. The claim establishes the table position and the regulation route, not how Temperley will play or whether they will convert the situation into a result.
- Olé listed Temperley on 50 points after 29 matches, behind Tristán Suárez and Gimnasia de Jujuy.
- AFA's 2026 regulations state that the first-placed team in each zone meets in a final for the first promotion place.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 17:23 · Europe/BucharestOlé — Primera Nacional promotion and playoff racejuegos.ole.com.ar · 13 Sep 2026AFA — Primera Nacional 2026 Regulationsassets1.afa.com.ar · 30 Jan 2026
Almagro are thirteenth in Group 2 with 35 points from 29 games, five points above the relegation line. They have scored 25 goals in total this season, but only nine of those have come away from home.
Their away record of three wins, four draws and seven defeats shows they struggle to turn away games into points, and the nine away goals is the joint-lowest among mid-table sides in the group. Temperley have conceded only 16 goals at home in fourteen games, so Almagro's already limited away scoring is unlikely to improve much here. The main question is whether Almagro can keep the game tight enough for a draw, which they managed in the reverse fixture on 3 May 2026.
- Almagro away record: 3 wins, 4 draws, 7 defeats in 14 games, 9 goals scored and 20 conceded.
- Almagro overall record: 9 wins, 8 draws, 12 defeats in 29 games, 25 goals scored and 33 conceded.
- Temperley home defensive record: 16 goals conceded in 14 home games.
F. Díaz, a Temperley midfielder, started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups and was sent off for a second caution nine minutes into the second half at Patronato.
Nicolás Domingo said the dismissal disrupted Temperley's midfield control and identified Díaz's intensity and ball use as lost qualities, so any absence would require a midfield adjustment. G. Tomasetti started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent fixtures when Díaz did not start, but no formal availability update for Almagro was located, so this stays uncertainty rather than a confirmed removal.
- Diario La Unión reported that Díaz received a second yellow card nine minutes into the second half against Patronato.
- Domingo said the sending-off left his side disorganised and identified Díaz's intensity and ball use as lost qualities.
- F. Díaz started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- G. Tomasetti started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when F. Díaz did not start.
To watchSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 17:23 · Europe/BucharestDiario La Unión — Temperley at Patronatolaunion.com.ar · 13 Sep 2026Diario La Unión — Nicolás Domingo on the Patronato drawlaunion.com.ar · 15 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Structural home/away edge plus motivation/stakes: Temperley's 9-3-2 home split and 50-point title chase against Almagro's 3-4-7 away record with 20 goals conceded on the road makes the home side the clear favourite.
- Temperley home record 2026: 9W-3D-2L in 14 home matches, 25 goals for / 16 against.
- Temperley last 5 league matches: D-W-W-W-W (13 points of 15), scoring 3,1,2,3,0 goals.
- Almagro away record 2026: 3W-4D-7L in 14 away matches, 9 goals for / 20 against.
- Almagro last 5: D-L-W-D-L, with 0-2 and 0-3 away defeats inside the last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCA TemperleyEstimated chance58%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Temperley's low defeat rate (5 in 29) with their strong home split and Almagro's weak away form makes a home win or draw the dominant outcome.
- Temperley 2026 record: 13W-11D-5L in 29 matches, only 5 defeats all season.
- Temperley home: 9W-3D-2L, unbeaten in 12 of 14 home fixtures.
- Almagro away: 3W-4D-7L, only 7 wins in 29 overall.
- H2H last 5: Temperley won 2 of the 3 meetings staged at Temperley (4-1, 3-1).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA Temperley or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half profiles are low-scoring and draw-heavy, with Almagro rarely ahead at the break, making the half-time draw the most likely single outcome.
- Temperley half-time result in last 15: 8 draws, 5 wins, 2 losses.
- Almagro half-time result in last 15: 10 draws, 1 win, 4 losses.
- Temperley first-half goals for 0.7, against 0.3; Almagro 0.4 for, 0.6 against.
- Almagro led at half-time in only 7% of matches this season.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Temperley almost never trail at the break while Almagro almost never lead, so the home side or draw at half-time is a strong position.
- Temperley trailed at half-time in only 13% of matches across the last 15.
- Almagro led at half-time in just 7% of matches across the last 15.
- Temperley first-half goals conceded average 0.3 per game.
- Almagro first-half goals scored average 0.4 per game.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonCA Temperley or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Temperley's habit of leading at the break combined with Almagro's tendency to trail early makes the home/home double a plausible but not dominant route.
- Temperley led at half-time in 47% of matches and went on to win 13 of 29 overall.
- Temperley home record 9W-3D-2L with 25 goals scored at home.
- Almagro trailed at half-time in 20% of matches and lost 7 of 14 away fixtures.
- Almagro conceded 20 goals in 14 away matches (1.43 per game).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostCA Temperley / CA TemperleyEstimated chance30%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The home/away split and recent form gap justify backing Temperley to win outright on the -0.5 line, though the draw risk keeps confidence at medium.
- Temperley home: 9W-3D-2L, winning 64% of home matches.
- Almagro away: 3W-4D-7L, losing 50% of away matches.
- Temperley last 5: 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 9 goals.
- Almagro last 5: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, scoring 4 goals.
BetBugs · Asian HandicapwonCA Temperley -0.5Estimated chance58%

Goals2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' season goal rates sit near or below 1.2 per game, and recent matches cluster around low totals, so the under is the marginally stronger side of the line.
- Temperley 2026: 33 goals for / 23 against in 29 matches (1.14 for, 0.79 against per game).
- Almagro 2026: 25 goals for / 33 against in 29 matches (0.86 for, 1.14 against per game).
- Temperley last 5 matches produced 0,4,1,3,3 total goals; three of five stayed at or under 2.5.
- Almagro last 5 matches produced 4,3,1,0,2 total goals; three of five stayed at or under 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Temperley's low concession rate and Almagro's weak away scoring output make a clean sheet for the home side the more likely path than both teams scoring.
- Temperley conceded 0.6 goals per game across the last 15 matches, with 6 clean sheets in that span.
- Almagro scored 0.86 goals per game in 2026 and were shut out in 4 of their last 8 matches.
- Almagro away 2026: only 9 goals in 14 away matches (0.64 per game).
- H2H last 5: two of the five meetings ended 0-0 or 1-1 with one side failing to score in three.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Almagro's away scoring rate of 0.64 goals per game against Temperley's recent 0.6 concession rate gives the home clean sheet a realistic chance.
- Temperley conceded 0.6 goals per game over the last 15 matches.
- Almagro scored 0 or 1 goal in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Almagro away 2026: 9 goals in 14 matches, blanked in 7 of 14 away fixtures.
- Temperley home 2026: 16 goals conceded in 14 home matches, but only 0.6 per game recently.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostClub Almagro not to scoreEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring averages sit well below one goal, and Almagro rarely lead at the break, pointing to a low-scoring opening period.
- Temperley first-half goals average 0.7 for and 0.3 against across the last 15 matches.
- Almagro first-half goals average 0.4 for and 0.6 against across the last 15 matches.
- Temperley led at half-time in 47% of matches and trailed in only 13%.
- Almagro led at half-time in just 7% of matches and trailed in 20%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' goal distribution skews to the second half, and recent matches almost always produced at least one second-half goal.
- Temperley's last 5 matches produced second-half goals in 4 of 5 fixtures.
- Almagro's last 5 matches produced second-half goals in 4 of 5 fixtures.
- Temperley average 1.5 goals per game overall, with a large share arriving after the break.
- Almagro average 1.1 goals per game overall, with first-half output only 0.4.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Temperley's home scoring rate above 1.7 per game against Almagro's away concession rate above 1.4 makes two or more home goals a reasonable expectation.
- Temperley scored 25 goals in 14 home matches (1.79 per game).
- Temperley scored 2 or more in 6 of their last 9 home fixtures.
- Almagro conceded 20 goals in 14 away matches (1.43 per game).
- Almagro conceded 2 or more in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCA Temperley over 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Temperley's strong recent defensive numbers and Almagro's weak away scoring give a home win-to-nil a live but minority chance.
- Temperley conceded 0.6 goals per game over the last 15 matches.
- Almagro were shut out in 4 of their last 8 matches.
- Almagro away 2026: 9 goals in 14 matches, blanked in 7 away fixtures.
- Temperley home 2026: 16 goals conceded in 14 home matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NillostYesEstimated chance30%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 85% leaves no cushion vs our 80% estimate; the price already reflects Temperley's low defeat rate and strong home split.

Prediction history

CA Temperley has been moderately reliable when projected to win, with home form supporting the current projection

CA Temperley fulfilled 2 of 4 match-winner projections, matching the expected 1.8 based on average estimated probability. Both misses were draws, with no losses, and the two fulfilled predictions came in home matches where the sample is 2 of 3. The current 58% probability sits above the historical range of 40–45%, so this projection is stronger than any previous one in the sample.

Recent evidence for CA Temperley4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

18 Jul·Primera Nacional