Jablonec1Slovan Liberec2

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 26–6On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 4–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 00:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Jablonec’s short recovery window gives Liberec a slight edge, but the market has already priced in the away side’s strength.

The only positive value is on Both Teams to Score ‘No’ at 1.85, with a marginal +0.9-point edge; all other markets show negative value. Expect a tight, low-scoring derby, but avoid overpaying for the under or draw.

Context

Slovan Liberec are second in the Czech Liga with 13 points from six games.
They have won all three away matches, scoring five goals and conceding only one. That away strength faces a Jablonec side that has won both home games, so this match pairs two strong home/away records against each other.
- Liberec away record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 5 goals for, 1 goal against.
- Jablonec home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 3 goals for, 1 goal against.
Jablonec played a rearranged league match on Wednesday, drawing 1-1 at Bohemians Praha 1905, while Liberec last played the previous Sunday, beating Hradec Králové 2-0 at home.
The hosts have less time to recover and prepare on the training pitch, which can constrain training load and late selection decisions. Liberec's extra rest may allow a fuller preparation, but the derby's intensity and Jablonec's home form keep the match competitive.
- Chance Liga recorded Bohemians Praha 1905 1-1 FK Jablonec on 2 September 2026.
- FC Slovan Liberec recorded a 2-0 home win over Hradec Králové on 30 August 2026.
- The clubs confirm the derby is scheduled for 6 September at 15:00 at Střelnice.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 00:44 · Europe/BucharestChance Liga: Jablonec’s 1-1 draw at Bohemianswww.chanceliga.cz · 2 Sep 2026FC Slovan Liberec: 2-0 win over Hradec Královéwww.fcslovanliberec.cz · 30 Aug 2026FC Slovan Liberec: derby travel informationwww.fcslovanliberec.cz · 30 Aug 2026
The teams have met five times in the last two seasons.
Jablonec won the most recent match 2-1 at home on 24 May 2026, but Liberec won the two before that. The head-to-head is mixed, so neither side has a clear recent edge.
- 24 May 2026: Jablonec 2-1 Liberec (home win).
- 25 Apr 2026: Jablonec 1-2 Liberec (away win).
- 25 Oct 2025: Liberec 0-2 Jablonec (away win).
Liberec average 15 shots and 5.4 corners per game, while Jablonec average 9.4 shots and 4.1 corners.
Liberec's higher shot and corner numbers suggest they may control attacking play, but Jablonec's defence has been solid, conceding only 0.8 goals per game. This could lead to a match where Liberec have more attempts but Jablonec stay compact.
- Liberec average 15 shots per game, Jablonec average 9.4.
- Liberec average 5.4 corners per game, Jablonec average 4.1.
- Jablonec concede 0.8 goals per game, Liberec concede 0.9.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Slovan Liberec

2.50fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 40%

0.0ppshort

Liberec's perfect away record and solid defensive numbers give them a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, leaving no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Draw or Slovan Liberec

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

The double chance covers both a draw and an away win, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, offering no value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.08fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 48%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have moderate first-half scoring and the derby often starts evenly, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, offering no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.36fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start cautiously, and the derby atmosphere may further reduce early scoring.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Liberec's perfect away record and strong defensive numbers give them a slight edge, but Jablonec's solid home form and derby intensity keep this close.
- Liberec away record this season: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 5 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- Jablonec home record this season: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 3 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- H2H last 5: Jablonec 2 wins, Liberec 2 wins, 1 draw; Liberec won the most recent meeting 2-1 at Jablonec.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSlovan LiberecEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Liberec's away strength and the competitive H2H make the double chance a safer play, covering both a draw and an away win.
- Liberec away record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- Jablonec home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- H2H last 5: 2 Jablonec wins, 2 Liberec wins, 1 draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Slovan LiberecEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first-half scoring and the derby often starts evenly, making a level half-time score likely.
- Jablonec leading at half-time in 40% of matches, trailing in 7%.
- Liberec leading at half-time in 27%, trailing in 33%.
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full-time draw is possible given the competitive balance, but the low draw rates for both teams make this a speculative pick.
- Jablonec draw rate overall: 0% in league this season (0 draws in 4 matches).
- Liberec draw rate overall: 17% (1 draw in 6 matches).
- H2H last 5: 1 draw, which was 0-0 at half-time and full-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have solid defensive records and the derby context often produces tight, low-scoring games.
- Jablonec average goals per match: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded.
- Liberec average goals per match: 1.3 scored, 0.9 conceded.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defenses have been strong recently, and the H2H trend supports at least one side failing to score.
- Jablonec have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Liberec have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 2 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, and the derby atmosphere may further reduce early scoring.
- Jablonec average first-half goals: 0.8 scored, 0.3 conceded.
- Liberec average first-half goals: 0.4 scored, 0.4 conceded.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half may open up slightly, but overall scoring rates remain modest for both teams.
- Jablonec average second-half goals: 0.7 scored, 0.5 conceded.
- Liberec average second-half goals: 0.9 scored, 0.5 conceded.
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the derby may be more about midfield battles than wide play.
- Jablonec average corners per match: 4.1, opponent corners: 4.4.
- Liberec average corners per match: 5.4, opponent corners: 3.9.
- H2H last 5: total corners ranged from 7 to 15, with 3 matches under 10.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby matches often produce more fouls and cards, and Liberec's higher card averages support a slightly elevated total.
- Jablonec average yellow cards: 1.3, opponent yellow cards: 1.5.
- Liberec average yellow cards: 2.5, opponent yellow cards: 2.8.
- H2H last 5: total cards (yellow+red) ranged from 3 to 7, with 3 matches over 3.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%