A LygaFull time

Predictions graded

Banga Gargzdai0FK Panevezys3

HT 0–1Thu 3 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 23:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Banga are slight favourites at home against a Panevezys side missing suspended scorer Kouadio, but the odds offer no value on the home win or double chance.

The only positive edge is on Both Teams to Score: No at 1.95, with a model probability of 55% vs implied 51.3%, though the edge is small and carries risk.

Context

Panevezys sit 7th in the A Lyga with 26 points from 25 matches. Their away record is much worse than their home record.
Panevezys have won only 3 of 13 away games, losing 10 and conceding 29 goals. Banga have been solid at home with 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, conceding just 12 goals in 11 home matches. This contrast suggests Banga can control the game, but Panevezys' recent away win at TransINVEST Vilnius on 2026-08-10 shows they can still produce a result on the road.
- Panevezys away record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 10 losses in 13 matches, with 9 goals scored and 29 conceded.
- Banga home record: 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses in 11 matches, with 14 goals scored and 12 conceded.
- Panevezys lost 0-2 at Suduva Marijampole on 2026-08-23 and 0-1 at Šiauliai on 2026-08-17.
Banga are 4th with 38 points, while Panevezys are 7th with 26 points. Recent results show a gap in form.
Banga's last five league games: draw with Kauno Žalgiris, draw at Hegelmann Litauen, win at FK Zalgiris Vilnius, loss to Suduva Marijampole, and win at Šiauliai. Panevezys' last five: win over FK Zalgiris Vilnius, loss at Suduva Marijampole, loss at Šiauliai, win at TransINVEST Vilnius, and draw with Džiugas Telšiai. Banga have been more consistent, but Panevezys' recent home win over FK Zalgiris Vilnius shows they can beat strong teams.
- Banga form: DDWLW (last five A Lyga matches).
- Panevezys form: WLLWD (last five A Lyga matches).
- Banga won 3-2 at FK Zalgiris Vilnius on 2026-08-16; Panevezys lost 0-2 at Suduva Marijampole on 2026-08-23.
Panevėžys midfielder S. Kouadio started four of the last five available lineups and scored in the 30 August win over Žalgiris.
His second-yellow dismissal in that match triggers a one-match suspension, forcing Panevėžys to replace a regular starter in midfield. The change removes a player who had been directly involved in recent scoring, but the available evidence does not identify a specific replacement or how the team will adjust.
- The official 30 August report lists S. Kouadio in Panevėžys' starting XI and as the 44th-minute scorer against Žalgiris.
- The same report records a yellow card at 54 minutes and a second yellow at 56 minutes.
- The 2026 LFF Disciplinary Code mandates a one-match ban for two cautions in the same match.
- S. Kouadio started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 23:26 · Europe/BucharestTOPLYGA: Panevėžys vs Žalgiris match reporttoplyga.lt · 30 Aug 20262026 LFF Disciplinary Codewww.lff.lt · 27 May 2026
Banga and Panevezys have met five times in the A Lyga since May 2025.
In the last five meetings, Panevezys won 1-0 at home on 2026-05-24, Banga won 1-0 at home on 2026-03-21, they drew 2-2 on 2025-10-18, Panevezys won 1-0 at home on 2025-08-20, and they drew 1-1 on 2025-05-23. The results are balanced, with each team winning once at home and once away in the last two seasons. This suggests the match could be close, but recent form and home advantage may tilt it toward Banga.
- 2026-05-24: Panevezys 1-0 Banga (A Lyga).
- 2026-03-21: Banga 1-0 Panevezys (A Lyga).
- 2025-10-18: Banga 2-2 Panevezys (A Lyga).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Banga Gargzdai

1.92fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 52%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 45% estimate is below the 52% implied by the odds, so there is no positive edge on the home win.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Banga Gargzdai or Draw

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75%

−5.0ppshort

The predictor's 70% estimate is below the 75% implied by the odds, so there is no positive edge on the double chance.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.22fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 45%

0.0ppshort

The predictor's 40% estimate is below the 45% implied by the odds, so there is no positive edge on the first-half draw.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Banga's home matches average only 2.36 total goals and Panevezys' away attack is weak (0.69 goals/game), supporting a low-scoring game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Banga's solid home form and Panevezys' poor away record, combined with Banga's motivation to climb the table, make them the likelier winner.
- Banga home record: 4W 4D 3L, 14 goals for, 12 against in 11 home matches
- Panevezys away record: 3W 0D 10L, 9 goals for, 29 against in 13 away matches
- Banga last 5 form: DDWLW (8 points); Panevezys last 5: WLLWD (7 points)
- H2H last 5: Banga 1W, Panevezys 2W, 2D
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBanga GargzdaiEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Banga's strong home unbeaten rate and Panevezys' away struggles support a home win or draw double chance.
- Banga home record: 4W 4D 3L (73% unbeaten at home)
- Panevezys away record: 3W 0D 10L (77% losses away)
- Banga last 5 home matches: 2W 2D 1L
BetBugs · Double ChancelostBanga Gargzdai or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Banga's high first-half draw rate and Panevezys' mixed first-half form make a draw at half-time plausible.
- Banga first half results: 20% leading, 33% trailing, 47% drawing
- Panevezys first half results: 47% leading, 40% trailing, 13% drawing
- H2H first half results not available, but overall H2H has 2 draws in 5 matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Banga win is a plausible scenario given Banga's home strength and Panevezys' away weakness.
- Banga first half draw rate: 47%
- Banga home win rate: 36%
- Panevezys away loss rate: 77%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Banga GargzdaiEstimated chance20%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Banga's home matches tend to be low-scoring, and Panevezys' away attack is weak, suggesting under 2.5 goals.
- Banga home average goals: 1.27 for, 1.09 against (total 2.36)
- Panevezys away average goals: 0.69 for, 2.23 against (total 2.92)
- Banga overall average total goals: 2.2 per match
- Panevezys overall average total goals: 2.5 per match
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Panevezys' poor away scoring record and Banga's decent home defense make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Banga home clean sheets: 4 in 11 home matches (36%)
- Panevezys away failed to score: 7 in 13 away matches (54%)
- Panevezys away goals per match: 0.69
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring averages, making under 1.5 first-half goals likely.
- Banga first half goals average: 0.5 for, 0.7 against (total 1.2)
- Panevezys first half goals average: 0.6 for, 0.7 against (total 1.3)
- Banga first half leading at half time: 20%, trailing: 33%
- Panevezys first half leading at half time: 47%, trailing: 40%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring tends to be moderate, and both teams' defensive records in the second half support under 1.5 goals.
- Banga second half goals average: 0.8 for, 0.2 against (total 1.0)
- Panevezys second half goals average: 0.3 for, 0.9 against (total 1.2)
- Combined second half total average: 2.2, but recent matches show lower scoring
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Banga's home defense and Panevezys' away scoring struggles give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.
- Banga home clean sheets: 4 in 11 (36%)
- Panevezys away failed to score: 7 in 13 (54%)
- Panevezys away goals per match: 0.69
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFK Panevezys not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Banga's consistent home scoring makes it unlikely Panevezys keep a clean sheet.
- Panevezys away clean sheets: 3 in 13 (23%)
- Banga home goals per match: 1.27
- Banga failed to score at home: 2 in 11 (18%)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBanga Gargzdai to scoreEstimated chance70%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L1-0PanevėžysvBangaMay 24, 2026A L

W0-1BangavPanevėžysMar 21, 2026A L

D2-2BangavPanevėžysOct 18, 2025A L

L1-0PanevėžysvBangaAug 20, 2025A L

D1-1BangavPanevėžysMay 23, 2025A L

FK Panevezys: 2 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

A Lyga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Banga Gargzdai	25	10	8	7	29-22	38	DDWLW
7	FK Panevezys	25	7	5	13	23-41	26	WLLWD

12pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Banga Gargzdai

D0-0Kauno ŽalgirisAug 30A L

D1-1Hegelmann LitauenAug 23A L

W3-2FK Zalgiris VilniusAug 16A L

L0-3Suduva MarijampoleAug 9A L

W3-1ŠiauliaiAug 3A L

L0-1Džiugas TelšiaiJul 19A L

W3-1TransINVEST VilniusJul 12A L

W2-0Hegelmann LitauenJun 28A L

W3-0FK Zalgiris VilniusJun 20A L

W1-0Kauno ŽalgirisJun 17A L

D0-0Suduva MarijampoleJun 13A L

D1-1ŠiauliaiMay 30A L

L0-1PanevėžysMay 24A L

W1-0Džiugas TelšiaiMay 16A L

D2-2TransINVEST VilniusMay 10A L

FK Panevezys

W2-0FK Zalgiris VilniusAug 30A L

L0-2Suduva MarijampoleAug 23A L

L0-1ŠiauliaiAug 17A L

W2-0TransINVEST VilniusAug 10A L

D1-1Džiugas TelšiaiAug 3A L

D1-1FK Tobol KostanayJul 23UEF

L0-3Kauno ŽalgirisJul 11A L

D1-1Hegelmann LitauenJul 4A L

L1-2Suduva MarijampoleJun 29A L

L1-2MinijaJun 23CUP

W3-2ŠiauliaiJun 20A L

L0-3FK Zalgiris VilniusJun 16A L

L1-2TransINVEST VilniusJun 12A L

L0-4Džiugas TelšiaiMay 30A L

W1-0BangaMay 24A L

Squad & Injuries

Banga Gargzdai

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

FK Panevezys

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

Banga Gargzdai

Banga Gargzdai or Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Banga Gargzdai

FK Panevezys

Squad & Injuries

Banga Gargzdai

FK Panevezys