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Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo #332Juan Pablo Ficovich #366Argentina

Wed 4 Nov 2026, 17:004 Nov, 17:00First RoundClay

8Probabilities4Priced4Edges79%Strongest

Strong leanSlight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoaquin Aguilar Cardozo · 34 places

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

He completed four consecutive ITF singles titles in August 2026. His published match record is predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #332
Peak ranking: #389
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Juan Pablo Ficovich

Argentina

ITF lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high No. 125 on July 25, 2022.

Current ranking: #366
Peak ranking: #125 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 1 Nov 2026, 17:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Two clay-courters in contrasting form meet in the Villa Maria first round: Aguilar has won 12 of his last 14 on the surface, while Ficovich is 2-4 in his last six.

Aguilar is the likely winner, and the quoted prices partly agree — 1.44 for him to take the first set, 1.44 for the second set and 1.33 for the match all carry a small edge. Aguilar 2-0 at 1.85 is about fair.

Context

The recent clay form gap is wide and current, but Aguilar's serve metrics are missing and Ficovich's 15-match serve figures give him a route into sets.

Aguilar has been winning consistently at Challenger level on clay and closed the run with a 31 October win over Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva (186).
The 14-match sample includes wins over Tomas Barrios Vera (156), Lautaro Midon (187) and Reis Da Silva (186). It is the strongest piece of form evidence in this first-round matchup, though 14 matches on one surface is a short window and not a long-term rate.
- Home setEvidence: 14 clay matches tracked, 21 September to 31 October 2026, record 12-2.
- Includes wins over Tomas Barrios Vera (156) on 29 October and Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva (186) on 31 October 2026.
- Latest tracked match: 31 October 2026, 2-0 win over Reis Da Silva, 13-6 in games.
Ficovich's clay sets have been settled without extended endings, and four of the six went against him in straight sets.
First sets averaged 8.8 total games and second sets 10.3 across those six matches, played between 1 September and 29 October 2026. None reached a tiebreak, so his sets have not been running long. Six matches is a small base, though, and the pattern is a description of results rather than a prediction.
- Away setEvidence: 6 clay matches tracked, 1 September to 29 October 2026, scorelines 0-2 (four) and 2-0 (two).
- No tiebreaks across those six matches.
- First sets averaged 8.8 total games; second sets averaged 10.3 total games.
Ficovich's serve and break-point defence are the parts of his game that hold up better than his 3-12 win-loss record across the last 15 matches.
Those 15-match serve figures, plus 58.3% of break points saved across six clay matches from 1 September to 29 October 2026, are the main reason this is not a one-way contest. Aguilar's equivalent serve data is not available, so the comparison cannot be completed either way. The 48.6% total points won on clay still leaves him below even.
- Away last15: 15 matches tracked, 64.8% first serves in (683/1054), 63.3% first-serve points won (432/683).
- Away last15: 47.1% total points won (976/2071) across 15 matches.
- Away currentSurface: 6 clay matches, 48.6% total points won (351/722), 58.3% break points saved (28/48).
It is the only defeat among his last six listed clay matches, and it took two tiebreaks to separate the players.
He still won 18 games to Midon's 16 in that match, which shows how narrow the margin was rather than a collapse. It is a reminder that a straight-sets finish is a pattern in his recent record, not a guarantee, since an opponent of similar ranking pushed him into a third set decided on tiebreaks.
- Home recentMatches[4]: 8 October 2026, loss to Lautaro Midon (187) 1-2, sets 6-7, 6-2, 6-7, games 18-16.
- Not a retirement; all three sets completed.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 79%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Aguilar has the clearly stronger recent clay results and has been beating higher-ranked opponents.
- Aguilar is 12-2 in his last 14 clay matches.
- Ficovich is 2-4 on clay in his last six.
- Aguilar won 12 of 14 opening sets and 10 of 14 second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Match WinnerJoaquin Aguilar CardozoMarket price1.33Estimated chance79%

Games2 outcomes · top 54%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ficovich's opening sets have stayed short, and he has often lost them without reaching a tiebreak.
- Ficovich's six clay first sets averaged 8.8 total games.
- Ficovich had no first-set tiebreaks in six clay matches.
- Ficovich lost four of six first sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aguilar's clay matches have averaged above the line, with tiebreaks adding to game totals.
- Aguilar's 14 clay matches averaged 21.7 total games.
- Aguilar had four tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
- Ficovich's six clay matches averaged 19.2 total games.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 20.5Estimated chance53%

Sets4 outcomes · top 76%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Aguilar has dominated opening sets on clay while Ficovich has often started slowly.
- Aguilar won 12 of 14 first sets on clay.
- Ficovich won only two of six first sets on clay.
- Ficovich averaged 3.8 games won in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerJoaquin Aguilar CardozoMarket price1.44Estimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Aguilar has also been stronger in second sets, while Ficovich has often fallen further behind.
- Aguilar won 10 of 14 second sets on clay.
- Ficovich won only two of six second sets on clay.
- Ficovich averaged 5.5 games lost in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerJoaquin Aguilar CardozoMarket price1.44Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay records point to straight-set finishes more often than three-set matches.
- Nine of Aguilar's 14 clay matches finished 2-0.
- Ficovich's six clay matches all finished in straight sets.
- Four of Ficovich's six clay matches were 0-2 losses.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Aguilar has usually won in straight sets on clay and often takes the opening set.
- Nine of Aguilar's 14 clay matches finished 2-0.
- Aguilar won 12 of 14 first sets on clay.
- Ficovich lost four of six clay matches 0-2.
BetBugs · Set BettingJoaquin Aguilar Cardozo 2-0Market price1.85Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 outcome · top 66%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ficovich's clay matches have avoided tiebreaks, and many have ended in straight sets.
- Ficovich has not played a tiebreak in six clay matches.
- Four of Ficovich's six clay matches were 0-2 losses.
- Aguilar had tiebreaks in only four of 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance66%

Previous match context available

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

12W 3L

7-5 6-1#186Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva 7-6(3) 6-4#187Lautaro Midon

6-1 6-3#156Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 6-3#444Miguel Tobon

6-0 2-1 ret.#344Felipe Meligeni Alves

7-6(1) 2-6 7-6(9)#187Lautaro Midon

6-2 7-5#713Nicolas Villalon

6-3 0-6 6-3#519Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-1 6-7(3) 6-0#712Santiago De La Fuente

6-4 6-3#211Alex Barrena

6-2 6-4#201Juan Pablo Varillas

7-5 6-7(5) 6-4#128Francisco Comesana

6-2 6-1#340Carlos Maria Zarate

6-1 6-2—Mateo Del Pino

6-4 7-5—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

Juan Pablo Ficovich

3W 12L

6-2 6-4—Dante Pagani

6-3 6-4—Pedro Albuquerque Dietrich

6-2 6-4#344Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-3 7-5#211Alex Barrena

6-3 6-4#298Juan Bautista Torres

6-2 6-2#174Francesco Maestrelli

6-4 6-4#209Pol Martin Tiffon

6-3 6-1#444Miguel Tobon

7-6(8) 4-6 6-2#462Evan Zhu

6-3 6-2#198Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-3 6-4#327Mert Alkaya

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#513Aziz Ouakaa

4-6 6-4 7-6(4)#192Alexis Galarneau

6-4 5-7 6-4#407Ozan Baris

6-1 7-6(4)#185Keegan Smith

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JCJoaquin Aguilar CardozoCardozo

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Juan Pablo FicovichFicovichJF

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo carries the stronger recent form — Juan Pablo Ficovich's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In65.9%+1.1pp64.8%

1st Serve Won64.9%+1.6pp63.3%

2nd Serve Won46.9%+1.1pp48.0%

Aces / Match0.9+1.62.5

Double Faults / Match2.70.5 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.4%+11.4pp36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted55.8%+14.0pp41.8%

Break Pts Saved62.3%+9.3pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.4%+6.3pp47.1%

Serve · 2–3

65.9%1st Serve In+1.1pp64.8%

64.9%1st Serve Won+1.6pp63.3%

46.9%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp48.0%

0.9Aces / Match+1.62.5

2.7Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer2.2

Return · 1–0

47.4%Return Pts Won+11.4pp36.0%

Pressure · 2–0

55.8%Break Pts Converted+14.0pp41.8%

62.3%Break Pts Saved+9.3pp53.0%

Points · 1–0

53.4%Total Pts Won+6.3pp47.1%

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Juan Pablo Ficovich

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo 2-0

Result1 outcome · top 79%

Games2 outcomes · top 54%

Sets4 outcomes · top 76%

Match stats1 outcome · top 66%

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Juan Pablo Ficovich

Stat Battle