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Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva #186BrazilJoaquin Aguilar Cardozo #332

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 20:3031 Oct, 20:30Indoor

1Probabilities0Priced0Edges55%Strongest

Slight lean

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJoao Lucas Reis Da Silva · 146 places

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Brazil

Reis Da Silva, 26, is a Brazilian right-hander whose preferred surface is clay. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 187 in November 2025.

Current ranking: #186
Peak ranking: #187 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

He completed four consecutive ITF singles titles in August 2026. His published match record is predominantly on clay.

Current ranking: #332
Peak ranking: #389
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 06:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Two of the busiest winners on the South American clay swing meet with little between them: Reis Da Silva is ranked No.

186, Aguilar Cardozo No. 332, yet Aguilar Cardozo has won 12 of 14 tracked matches. Reis Da Silva is the marginally likelier winner across three sets, but the case is close. No quoted price was reviewed for this match, so there is nothing to back.

Context

No availability news or research findings were supplied, so the picture rests on dated clay results: both players are winning regularly, and the ranking edge points one way while the recent records point slightly the other.

Aguilar Cardozo is ranked No. 332 here, so he is the lower-ranked player despite results like this one.
It is the cleanest win in his supplied record and shows he can handle a top-160 opponent without needing a third set. That supports the case that the ranking gap overstates the difference between these two. It remains a single match, and nothing in the record shows how he copes when a higher-ranked opponent keeps the sets tight.
- 29 October 2026: beat Tomas Barrios Vera (No. 156) 6-1, 6-3 on clay, winning 12 games to 4.
Reis Da Silva holds the higher ranking of the two and owns the best single result in either player's recent record.
He dropped the middle set 1-6 and still took the decider 6-2, which is the standout line in his 11-3 run over 14 tracked matches. Wins over No. 198 and No. 196 in the same month reinforce it and explain where the ranking edge sits. A best-of-three format leaves less room to absorb a set as lopsided as that second one.
- 11 October 2026: beat Thiago Seyboth Wild (No. 111) 7-6, 1-6, 6-2 on clay, winning 14 games to 14.
Two tie-break sets settled it against an opponent ranked No. 187, 145 places above him, and he still won more games overall. That is a useful check on the 12-2 record: the margins in his matches have been narrow rather than one-sided. It also means his two defeats in the tracked window have not come through collapse, so the form line is not built on easy draws alone.
- 8 October 2026: lost to Lautaro Midon (No. 187) 6-7, 6-2, 6-7 on clay; 18 games won, 16 lost.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 55%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Reis Da Silva has the higher ranking and comparable clay wins over top-200 opponents, giving him a slight edge in a close match.
- Ranked No. 186, 146 places above Aguilar Cardozo (No. 332).
- 11-3 in 14 tracked matches, with six wins in the supplied recent clay matches.
- Beat No. 111 Thiago Seyboth Wild 7-6, 1-6, 6-2 on 11 October.
- Also beat No. 198 Juan Carlos Prado Angelo and No. 196 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in October.
BetBugs · Match WinnerJoao Lucas Reis Da SilvaEstimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

12W 3L

4-6 6-4 6-2—Emilio Camacho

6-4 6-2#865Lorenzo Claverie

7-6(2) 1-6 6-2#111Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-3 6-4#198Juan Carlos Prado Angelo

6-4 7-6(1)#196Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

7-5 ret.#182Guido Ivan Justo

6-2 6-2—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-3 4-6 6-3#196Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida

6-1 7-5#449Murkel Dellien

6-4 6-3#191Mika Brunold

6-2 6-3#211Alex Barrena

7-6(4) 6-4#168Lukas Neumayer

6-3 6-4#230Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-1 6-4#80Alex Molcan

6-2 7-5#197Gonzalo Bueno

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

12W 3L

7-6(3) 6-4#187Lautaro Midon

6-1 6-3#156Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 6-3#444Miguel Tobon

6-0 2-1 ret.#344Felipe Meligeni Alves

7-6(1) 2-6 7-6(9)#187Lautaro Midon

6-2 7-5#713Nicolas Villalon

6-3 0-6 6-3#519Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez

6-1 6-7(3) 6-0#712Santiago De La Fuente

6-4 6-3#211Alex Barrena

6-2 6-4#201Juan Pablo Varillas

7-5 6-7(5) 6-4#128Francisco Comesana

6-2 6-1#340Carlos Maria Zarate

6-1 6-2—Mateo Del Pino

6-4 7-5—Federico Aguilar Cardozo

6-2 6-2#340Carlos Maria Zarate

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JSJoao Lucas Reis Da SilvaSilva

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Joaquin Aguilar CardozoCardozoJC

Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva carries the stronger recent form — Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In65.7%+0.8pp66.5%

1st Serve Won70.0%+4.7pp65.3%

2nd Serve Won53.5%+6.7pp46.8%

Aces / Match3.3+2.60.7

Double Faults / Match1.80.9 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won43.1%+4.3pp47.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted48.0%+5.4pp53.4%

Break Pts Saved61.4%—61.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won53.7%—53.4%

Serve · 4–1

65.7%1st Serve In+0.8pp66.5%

70.0%1st Serve Won+4.7pp65.3%

53.5%2nd Serve Won+6.7pp46.8%

3.3Aces / Match+2.60.7

1.8Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

43.1%Return Pts Won+4.3pp47.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

48.0%Break Pts Converted+5.4pp53.4%

61.4%Break Pts Saved—61.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.7%Total Pts Won—53.4%