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Predictions graded

Mia Pohankova #144Slovakia2Alycia Parks #64United States0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Fri 30 Oct 2026, 04:20 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlycia Parks · 80 places

Mia Pohankova

Slovakia

Reached a career-best WTA singles ranking of No. 243 in June 2026. Official WTA data shows a strong ranking rise during 2026; no reliable preferred-surface fact was found.

Current ranking: #144
Peak ranking: #243 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Alycia Parks

United States

Reached a career-high No. 40 on August 14, 2023 and won her first WTA singles title at Lyon that year. WTA records list hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #64
Peak ranking: #40 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 15:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Pohankova's 11-4 hard-court run meets Parks' four straight Tokyo wins for a semi-final place.

Pohankova looks the likelier winner, yet the 1.5 on her asks more than her record supports; the three prices that hold an edge are under 2.5 sets at 1.5, under 20.5 games at 2.1 and Parks at 2.6.

Context

Pohankova, ranked 144, has won 11 of her last 15 completed hard-court matches.
She has finished hard-court matches quickly in this window: 24 of 34 sets won, with only four of the 15 matches going the distance. That is why a short match is the likelier shape here, though Parks' four straight wins in Tokyo this week show she can extend a match when she gets a foothold.
- 11 of 15 completed hard-court matches from 23 August to 29 October ended in straight sets: nine 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses.
- Pohankova won 24 of 34 sets (70.6%) across that 15-match window.
- Only four of the 15 matches reached a deciding set.
Pohankova is ranked 144 and was giving away 125 places to Osaka.
Taking a top-20 player's serve apart across two sets is the strongest single result in her recent record, and it came the day before this quarter-final. One match does not establish consistency: the same 15-match window includes a 1-6 4-6 loss to Maria Sakkari, ranked 31, on 15 October, so her level has varied week to week.
- Pohankova beat Naomi Osaka (ranked 19) 6-3 7-5 on 29 October 2026.
- She won 13 games to 8 in that match and did not lose a set.
Parks, ranked 64, is 6-8 in that 14-match hard-court window.
Her first sets have been close, 4.36 games won against 4.57 lost, but the second set is where her matches have slipped, with nine losses in 14. If Pohankova takes the opener, that record makes a two-set finish more plausible than a decider; the counterpoint is Tokyo, where Parks came from a set down to win two tiebreaks against Shibahara.
- Parks won 5 and lost 9 second sets in 14 completed hard-court matches between 27 August and 29 October.
- She averaged 3.79 second-set games won against 5.14 lost in that window.
- Her first-set record in the same 14 matches was 6-8 with 4.36 games won against 4.57 lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pohankova has the stronger hard-court results and set-by-set numbers, giving her the clearer path to the semi-final.
- 11-4 on hard in her last 15 completed matches, winning 53.2% of total points.
- Won 10 of 15 first sets and 12 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Won 9 of 15 hard matches in straight sets, including 6-3 7-5 over Naomi Osaka in her latest match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMia PohankovaEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both players usually finish at nine games or fewer, favoring the under.
- Pohankova's first sets average 9.0 total games; Parks's average 8.9.
- Only two of 29 combined hard-court matches had a first-set tiebreak.
- Most recent first sets for both players finished 9 games or fewer.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Straight-set outcomes are common for both, making the under slightly more likely despite averages near the threshold.
- Combined hard-court average is 20.6 total games, only just above the threshold.
- Pohankova has won 9 of 15 hard matches in straight sets; Parks has 11 of 14 in straight sets.
- Parks's first sets average 8.9 games and Pohankova's 9.0.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Pohankova's second sets regularly reach 10 games, making the over slightly more likely.
- Pohankova's second sets average 9.9 total games; Parks's average 8.9.
- Pohankova has two second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches; Parks has two in 14.
- Pohankova's recent second sets include 7-5, 6-4 and 7-6 finishes.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set results dominate both players' recent hard-court records, making the under the stronger side.
- Pohankova's 15 hard-court matches produced 11 straight-set results; Parks's 14 produced 11.
- Combined average sets played is about 2.24.
- Pohankova has nine 2-0 wins and Parks has four 2-0 wins plus seven 0-2 losses.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Pohankova has a much better second-set record and game margin on hard.
- Won 12 of 15 second sets on hard; Parks won 5 of 14.
- Averages 5.8 second-set games won and 4.07 lost; Parks averages 3.79 won and 5.14 lost.
- Pohankova's second-set record is the strongest part of her hard-court set data.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMia PohankovaEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Pohankova's first-set record and game margin on hard are clearly better than Parks's.
- Won 10 of 15 first sets on hard; Parks won 6 of 14.
- Averages 4.93 first-set games won and 4.07 lost; Parks averages 4.36 won and 4.57 lost.
- Pohankova's latest first set was 6-3 against Naomi Osaka.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMia PohankovaEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches avoided tiebreaks, favoring the no side.
- 24 of 29 combined hard-court matches had no tiebreak.
- Parks's first sets have produced no tiebreaks in 14 hard matches.
- Pohankova's first sets average 9.0 total games, below the tiebreak range.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance78%

Previous match context available

Mia Pohankova

11W 4L

6-3 7-5#19Naomi Osaka

6-1 6-4#88Tereza Valentova

6-1 6-4#31Maria Sakkari

7-6(2) 6-7(7) 6-1#81Xiyu Wang

6-1 6-3#76Anna Bondar

6-2 6-7(3) 6-3#72Maria Timofeeva

3-6 7-5 6-1#195Katie Swan

6-3 6-4#124Veronika Podrez

6-2 6-1#218Francisca Jorge

7-5 5-7 6-3#159Gabriela Andrea Knutson

7-6(3) 6-4#320Kylie Collins

6-4 6-1#242Matilde Jorge

6-1 6-1#76Sinja Kraus

6-1 6-1#73Katie Volynets

6-3 6-3#355Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez

Alycia Parks

7W 8L

6-3 6-1#41Kimberly Birrell 6-1 7-6(7)#39Xinyu Wang 6-1 6-2#384Heather Watson 2-6 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#481Ena Shibahara

4-6 6-3 6-3#32Sara Bejlek

6-2 6-2#66Yulia Putintseva

4-6 4-4 ret.#124Jeline Vandromme

6-4 6-1#300Aoi Ito

6-4 6-2#257Lin Zhu

6-4 6-3#30Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-4 6-3#257Mei Yamaguchi

6-4 6-3#32Sara Bejlek

6-3 1-6 7-5#183Varvara Lepchenko

6-3 6-3#87Taylah Preston

6-2 6-3#25Ann Li

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMia PohankovaPohankova

Last 15

7–1

9 core stats · 1 even

Alycia ParksParksAP

Mia Pohankova carries the stronger recent form — Alycia Parks's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.1%+8.4pp50.7%

1st Serve Won69.2%—69.9%

2nd Serve Won48.5%+4.8pp43.7%

Aces / Match3.5+2.66.1

Double Faults / Match1.57.2 fewer8.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.4%+6.8pp38.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted53.5%+17.4pp36.1%

Break Pts Saved61.0%+6.1pp54.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.2%+5.0pp48.2%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

59.1%1st Serve In+8.4pp50.7%

69.2%1st Serve Won—69.9%

48.5%2nd Serve Won+4.8pp43.7%

3.5Aces / Match+2.66.1

1.5Double Faults / Match7.2 fewer8.7

Return · 1–0

45.4%Return Pts Won+6.8pp38.6%

Pressure · 2–0

53.5%Break Pts Converted+17.4pp36.1%

61.0%Break Pts Saved+6.1pp54.9%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won+5.0pp48.2%

Mia Pohankova

Alycia Parks

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 20.5

Alycia Parks

Mia Pohankova

Mia Pohankova

Mia Pohankova 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Mia Pohankova

Alycia Parks

Stat Battle