United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Mees Rottgering #331Netherlands0Aidan Mayo #321United States2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Fri 30 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAidan Mayo · 10 places

Mees Rottgering

Netherlands

Rottgering reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 411 in July 2026 and remains close to that mark. No reliable declared preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #331
Peak ranking: #411 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Aidan Mayo

United States

Reached a career-high No. 269 on 20 May 2024 and is No. 625 in the supplied structured data. He won the Drummondville Challenger in November 2024.

Current ranking: #321
Peak ranking: #269 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 15:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players ranked 331 and 321 meet for a place in the semi-final in Sioux Falls, with Mayo's serve the slightly sharper weapon in an otherwise even matchup.

Mayo is the marginal pick to win the match, and his 2.6 price carries the clearest edge; 2.4 for the opening set and 4.25 for a 2-0 Mayo win also hold up. Rottgering at 1.44 asks far more than his 10-5 record supports.

Context

Rottgering has won 10 of 15 hard-court matches in the sample, and almost none of those results needed a deciding set.
The 15-match sample averaged only 2.07 sets and 20.0 games per match, with a single three-setter in the group. That points to a compact match here, though Aidan Mayo's own sample runs to 2.4 sets per match and includes four three-set wins, so the contrast is not one-sided.
- Hard-court set scorelines over 15 matches, 13 Aug–28 Oct 2026: 2-0 nine times, 0-2 five times, 2-1 once.
- Average 20.0 total games and 2.07 sets per match across the same 15 matches.
- Set 1: 10 wins, 5 losses, 5.33 games won to 4.20 games lost.
Mayo landed 57.7% of first serves in that window and was difficult to break once the ball was in play on the first delivery.
Mayo's 6.9 aces per match and 75.9% first-serve points won sit above Rottgering's 3.4 aces and 73.5% over comparable 15-match hard-court samples, which is where his advantage starts. The offset is 4.5 double faults per match and a return game that wins 39.3% of points against Rottgering's 42.5%.
- 104 aces in 15 hard-court matches, 26 Aug–28 Oct 2026 (6.9 per match).
- First serve in 57.7% (680 of 1,179); first-serve points won 75.9% (516 of 680).
- 68 double faults across the same 15 matches (4.5 per match).
Mayo took the opener comfortably, dropped a second-set tiebreak, then edged the decider to reach the quarter-final.
The 19 games to 14 scoreline came against a player ranked No. 214, and it is the longest of his recent outings in a sample where matches average 113.6 minutes. It is context for how much tennis he has played this week rather than evidence of fatigue, and Rottgering closed both of his wins in Sioux Falls in straight sets.
- 28 Oct 2026: beat Maks Kasnikowski (No. 214) 6-2, 6-7, 7-5, taking 19 games to 14.
- Sets of 6-2, 6-7, 7-5 made it a 33-game match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Mayo has the stronger serve and the better win rate over the same surface window, which should give him slightly more cheap points in a near-even matchup.
- Mayo last 15 on hard: 11-4, sets won 66.7% (24/36)
- First-serve points won 75.9% (516/680) with 6.9 aces per match
- Rottgering 10-5, first-serve points won 73.5%, 3.4 aces per match
- Total points won almost level: Mayo 52.3%, Rottgering 52.6%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance53%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets sit just under ten games on average, favouring a 6-4 or 6-3 type scoreline.
- Rottgering set1 total games average 9.53 with no tiebreaks
- Mayo set1 total games average 9.27
- Rottgering set1 games 5.33 won vs 4.20 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been tighter than first sets for both players, with several tiebreaks in the window.
- Rottgering set2 total games average 9.80 with 4 tiebreaks
- Mayo set2 total games average 9.73 with 3 tiebreaks
- Both players 9-6 in second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rottgering's short, straight-set matches pull the expected total near the line, keeping under marginally favoured.
- Rottgering: 20.0 total games per match on hard
- Mayo: 23.7 total games per match on hard
- Rottgering set totals average 9.53 and 9.80
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rottgering's matches are overwhelmingly decided in straight sets, and Mayo goes to a decider less than half the time.
- Rottgering: 14 of 15 matches finished in two sets
- Mayo: 9 of 15 matches finished in two sets
- Rottgering total sets per match 2.07, Mayo 2.4
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Mayo starts matches more reliably, winning the opening set in 11 of 15 hard-court matches in this window.
- Mayo set1 record 11-4, averaging 5.47 games won to 3.80 lost
- Rottgering set1 record 10-5, 5.33 games won to 4.20 lost
- Mayo's first-serve points won 75.9%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set records are level, so the small edge leans to the player with the stronger serve overall.
- Mayo set2 record 9-6, 5.27 games won to 4.47 lost
- Rottgering set2 record 9-6, 5.27 games won to 4.53 lost
- Mayo has 6 matches with a tiebreak in 15
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these matches finish without a tiebreak, and straight-set outcomes further limit the opportunities.
- Rottgering: 4 of 15 hard matches had a tiebreak
- Mayo: 6 of 15 hard matches had a tiebreak
- Combined 9 tiebreaks across 30 matches with 72% two-set matches expected
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double-fault rates add up just below the line in a typical match.
- Rottgering 3.9 double faults per match
- Mayo 4.5 double faults per match
- Combined per-match average 8.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' ace rates add up to just below the line for a typical match length.
- Rottgering 3.4 aces per match (51 in 15)
- Mayo 6.9 aces per match (104 in 15)
- Combined per-match average 10.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Mees Rottgering

10W 5L

6-4 7-6(3)#573Kaylan Bigun 6-3 6-4#182Alexis Galarneau 6-3 6-4#159Darwin Blanch

7-5 7-6(2)#781Cosme Rolland De Ravel

6-2 6-1#262Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 7-6(5)#224Andres Andrade

6-1 6-4#208Braden Shick

7-5 6-3#401Edward Winter

6-3 6-3#134Nishesh Basavareddy

6-3 6-3#34Arthur Fery

6-2 7-6(1)#72Tomas Machac

7-5 2-6 6-4#113Jan Choinski

6-4 6-1#387Hugo Grenier

6-1 6-0#595Hunter Heck

7-5 6-4#104Lloyd Harris

Aidan Mayo

11W 4L

6-2 6-7(4) 7-5#214Maks Kasnikowski 6-2 6-3#271Hynek Barton

7-6(5) 0-6 7-6(5)#396Sander Jong

1-6 6-0 7-5#573Kaylan Bigun

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#218Colton Smith

7-6(7) 7-5#306Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 7-6(8)#218Colton Smith

6-4 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-4#402Sebastian Gorzny

6-2 6-2—Jordan Lee

1-6 6-4 6-4#568Ryan Seggerman

6-3 7-6(7)#224Andres Andrade

6-3 6-4#541Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-4 6-4#338Andres Martin

6-4 2-6 6-4#812Benjamin Willwerth

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MRMees RottgeringRottgering

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Aidan MayoMayoAM

Aidan Mayo carries the stronger recent form — Mees Rottgering's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In56.1%+1.6pp57.7%

1st Serve Won73.5%+2.4pp75.9%

2nd Serve Won50.8%—51.3%

Aces / Match3.4+3.56.9

Double Faults / Match3.90.6 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.5%+3.2pp39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.5%+5.7pp33.8%

Break Pts Saved68.5%+4.2pp72.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.6%—52.3%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

56.1%1st Serve In+1.6pp57.7%

73.5%1st Serve Won+2.4pp75.9%

50.8%2nd Serve Won—51.3%

3.4Aces / Match+3.56.9

3.9Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

42.5%Return Pts Won+3.2pp39.3%

Pressure · 1–1

39.5%Break Pts Converted+5.7pp33.8%

68.5%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp72.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.6%Total Pts Won—52.3%

Mees Rottgering

Aidan Mayo

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Aidan Mayo

Aidan Mayo

Aidan Mayo 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mees Rottgering

Aidan Mayo

Stat Battle