United StatesSioux Falls - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Aidan Mayo #336United States2Maks Kasnikowski #214Poland1

Sets 6-2 · 6-7 · 7-5Wed 28 Oct 2026, 16:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundI.hard

Predictions2–529%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaks Kasnikowski · 122 places

Aidan Mayo

United States

Reached a career-high No. 269 on 20 May 2024 and is No. 625 in the supplied structured data. He won the Drummondville Challenger in November 2024.

Current ranking: #336
Peak ranking: #269 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Maks Kasnikowski

Poland

Kasnikowski, 23, is a Polish right-hander. He reached a career-high No. 168 in October 2024. The required public profile search did not establish a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #214
Peak ranking: #168 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayo has the better hard-court record but the lower ranking, and the match turns on whether his first-set edge holds against a higher-ranked opponent who has won four of his last six.

Mayo to win is quoted at 2.3, and Mayo to take either set at 2.2, with all three worth backing. Kasnikowski at 1.55 and 1.6 asks for more than his 8-7 hard-court record supports.

Context

The second set has been the weaker half of Kasnikowski's recent hard-court matches.
Kasnikowski's first sets are 8-7 with a 5.27 to 4.07 game margin, but his second sets fall to 7-8 and a negative game margin of 4.87 to 5.20. Mayo, by contrast, has won 10 of 15 second sets with 5.33 games to 4.33. If the match reaches a second set, the supplied records point to the lower-ranked player as the likelier holder of it.
- Kasnikowski won 7 of 15 second sets on hard between Aug 6 and Oct 27, 2026.
- He averaged 4.87 games won and 5.20 games lost in second sets across those 15 matches.
The programme places this fixture in the second round of the Sioux Falls event at Kwik Star Stadium. It establishes the tournament stage and hard-court setting for the meeting. The scheduled 12:30 start supplies match framing but does not provide player-specific availability or preparation information.
- The fixture is listed as a men's singles Round 2 match at Kwik Star Stadium .
- The listed start time is 12:30 on hard court in Sioux Falls.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 03:08 · Europe/BucharestTennis.comwww.tennis.com · 28 Oct 2026Flashscorewww.flashscore.co.uk · 28 Oct 2026
Mayo's cleanest recent hard-court result came the day before this second-round fixture.
Mayo won 12 games to 5 against Barton on Oct 27, his most comfortable hard-court scoreline in the supplied recent record. It supports the reading that he starts tournaments well, matching his 11 of 15 first sets won on hard. Barton was ranked 271, so the win is useful context rather than proof against a higher-ranked opponent such as Kasnikowski.
- Mayo beat Hynek Barton 6-2 6-3 on Oct 27, 2026, on indoor hard.
- Mayo won 12 games to Barton's 5 in a straight-sets first-round win.
Kasnikowski's opening win was quick, though the opponent's ranking tempers how much it says.
Kasnikowski lost only three games on Oct 27, a sharper scoreline than any of Mayo's recent wins. Trotter was ranked 551, well below both players, so the result is more about a clean start than about handling a comparable opponent. It does sit against the broader pattern of seven second sets lost in 15 hard-court matches this season.
- Kasnikowski beat James Kent Trotter 6-1 6-2 on Oct 27, 2026, on indoor hard.
- Kasnikowski won 12 games to Trotter's 3.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Mayo's stronger hard-court win rate and set and game margins give him a narrow edge despite the ranking gap.
- Mayo is 11-4 on hard in the last 15 with 55.8% games won and 52.5% total points won.
- Kasnikowski is 8-7 on hard in the last 15 with 52.9% games won and 52.4% total points won.
- Mayo has won 11 of 15 first sets on hard; Kasnikowski has won 8 of 15.
- Kasnikowski is ranked 214, 122 places above Mayo at 336.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance53%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kasnikowski's recent matches have been short, supporting a lower total.
- Kasnikowski's last six completed matches all finished under 22.5 total games.
- Mayo's last six completed matches include two totals under 22.5.
- Both hard-court season averages are near 22.5 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes dominate both hard-court samples.
- Mayo's 15 hard-court matches include eight 2-0 and five 0-2 outcomes.
- Kasnikowski's 15 hard-court matches include five 2-0 and five 0-2 outcomes.
- Both players average 2.33 sets per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Mayo's stronger first-set record supports him taking the opener.
- Mayo has won 11 of 15 first sets on hard, with 5.53 games won against 4.00 lost.
- Kasnikowski has won 8 of 15 first sets on hard, with 5.27 games won against 4.07 lost.
- Mayo's first-round win on Oct 27 included a 6-2 first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAidan MayoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Mayo's second-set record and game margin are stronger than Kasnikowski's.
- Mayo has won 10 of 15 second sets on hard, averaging 5.33 games won to 4.33 lost.
- Kasnikowski has won 7 of 15 second sets on hard, averaging 4.87 games won to 5.20 lost.
- Mayo's Oct 23 match included a 6-0 second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostAidan MayoEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of recent hard-court matches for both players avoided a tiebreak.
- Most hard-court matches in both samples did not include a tiebreak.
- Mayo has 5 tiebreak matches in 15; Kasnikowski has 6 in 15.
- Both players won their first round in straight sets without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate is slightly below 11.5, favoring the under.
- Mayo averages 6.7 aces per hard-court match; Kasnikowski averages 4.5.
- Combined average is 11.2 aces per match.
- Mayo's total is from 15 matches; Kasnikowski's from 14.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kasnikowski's low double-fault rate offsets Mayo's higher count, favoring the under.
- Mayo averages 4.3 double faults per hard-court match; Kasnikowski averages 1.2.
- Combined average is 5.5 double faults per match.
- Kasnikowski's 1.2 double faults per match is far below Mayo's 4.3.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Aidan Mayo

11W 4L

6-2 6-3#271Hynek Barton

7-6(5) 0-6 7-6(5)#451Sander Jong

1-6 6-0 7-5#573Kaylan Bigun

6-4 2-6 7-6(7)#218Colton Smith

7-6(7) 7-5#306Abedallah Shelbayh

6-2 7-6(8)#218Colton Smith

6-4 6-4—Nikita Filin

6-3 6-4#406Sebastian Gorzny

6-2 6-2—Jordan Lee

1-6 6-4 6-4#565Ryan Seggerman

6-3 7-6(7)#224Andres Andrade

6-3 6-4#541Luis Queiroz Miguel

6-4 6-4#338Andres Martin

6-4 2-6 6-4#848Benjamin Willwerth

7-5 7-5#756Matthew Forbes

Maks Kasnikowski

8W 7L

6-1 6-2#551James Kent Trotter

6-1 7-5#83Damir Dzumhur

6-2 7-5#167Stefano Travaglia

6-3 6-4#166Andrea Guerrieri

6-2 6-1#275Cezar Cretu

7-6(3) 6-1#246Philip Henning

6-3 6-0#8Alex De Minaur

7-6(4) 6-4#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-0 2-6 6-1#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-3 7-6(1)#516Christian Langmo

4-6 7-5 6-0#385Ivan Marrero Curbelo

7-5 7-6(5)#323Alejo Sanchez Quilez

6-2 4-6 6-4#163Elmer Moller

7-6(2) 4-6 6-4#187Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

2-6 7-6(4) 6-1#385Ivan Marrero Curbelo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAidan MayoMayo

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Maks KasnikowskiKasnikowskiMK

Maks Kasnikowski carries the stronger recent form — Aidan Mayo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1558.6%+1.3pp59.9%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1575.2%+2.0pp73.2%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.7%+1.2pp52.9%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/156.7+2.24.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.33.1 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.8%+1.4pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1532.6%+6.4pp39.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1573.6%+17.7pp55.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1552.5%—52.4%

Serve · 2–3

58.6%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.3pp59.9%

75.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.0pp73.2%

51.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.2pp52.9%

6.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.24.5

4.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.1 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

39.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.4pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

32.6%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+6.4pp39.0%

73.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+17.7pp55.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—52.4%