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Predictions graded

Martin Damm #105United States2Clement Tabur #161France0

Sets 7-6 · 7-6Fri 30 Oct 2026, 14:45 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions9–0100%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Damm · 56 places

Martin Damm

United States

Damm was born on 30 September 2003 and is a 203 cm left-hander. Structured data supplied for this match lists him at No. 94.

Current ranking: #105
Peak ranking: #94
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Clement Tabur

France

Reliable current profile detail beyond the supplied ranking and playing style was limited. Use structured recent-form and hard-court data as the main context.

Current ranking: #161
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 22:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Damm and Tabur, ranked 105 and 161, meet indoors in Brest for a place in the final, and their last 15 matches read identically at 7-8.

Damm's serve and first-set record make him the slightly likelier winner, but Tabur's return game and tiebreak-heavy sets keep it close. Damm at 1.45 is too short; the price that offers something is Tabur at 2.6.

Context

Damm's left-handed serve is his clearest route to cheap points indoors in Brest.
The first serve has been a real weapon across the 15-match sample, and Tabur's 5.5 aces per match suggests he will not match that free-point rate. The drop to 51.7% on second serves is the opening: once Damm misses, the point becomes contestable. Tabur's return game is the part of his record most likely to extend rallies and sets.
- 13.3 aces per match across 15 hard-court matches
- 78.3% first-serve points won (566 of 723)
- 51.7% second-serve points won (222 of 429)
Tabur's opening sets have been long and close, with eight won and five lost in the sample.
The count is the striking part: eight of 13 matches featured a tiebreak, matching his eight first-set tiebreaks. First sets averaging 11.4 games mean early leads have not come easily for him. Against Damm, who has won 10 of 14 first sets in the same window, that points to a tight opening set rather than a quick one.
- 13 hard-court matches tracked, 25 August to 29 October 2026
- Eight matches with a tiebreak, all in first sets
- First sets average 11.4 total games (6.15 won, 5.23 lost)
The fifth seed status places Damm among the designated contenders in Brest's 32-player field. It gives this quarter-final a clear tournament-stakes context. Seeding alone does not establish his physical condition or his level in this specific match.
- Damm held the fifth seed and was in the round of 16 at Brest.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Oct 2026, 22:07 · Europe/BucharestBrest Challenger 2026 results and draw updatewww.ski-nordique.net · 28 Oct 2026
The Romano result documents Tabur's route through the early rounds in Brest. The subsequent draw against a top-three seed adds context to the level of opponent he faced before this fixture. That opening win alone does not establish a sustained performance trend.
- Tabur defeated Romano 6-3, 6-4 in his Brest opener.
- His next draw assignment was against third seed Toby Samuel.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Oct 2026, 22:07 · Europe/BucharestBrest Challenger 2026 results and draw updatewww.ski-nordique.net · 28 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Martin Damm

1.55fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 64.5%

−8.5ppshort

Damm's first-set record is stronger than Tabur's in the hard-court sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Damm's serve and first-set record give him a narrow advantage.
- Damm is ranked 105 and Tabur 161.
- Damm averages 13.3 aces and 78.3% first-serve points won on hard courts.
- Damm has won 10 of 14 first sets in the hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartin DammEstimated chance52%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tabur's first sets regularly go past nine games and Damm's average sits right at ten.
- Damm's first sets average 10.0 total games.
- Tabur's first sets average 11.4 total games.
- Tabur has eight first-set tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Damm's second sets often go beyond nine games.
- Damm's second sets average 10.8 total games.
- Damm has six second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
- Tabur's second sets average 9.6 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tabur's longer matches and frequent tiebreaks make the over slightly more likely.
- Damm's hard-court matches average 23.9 total games and Tabur's average 25.2.
- Tabur has 8 tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches.
- Tabur has six three-set matches in his 13-match hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have enough straight-set results to make under 2.5 sets more likely.
- Damm's seven hard-court wins in the sample were all 2-0.
- Tabur has four 2-0 wins and three 0-2 losses among 13 hard-court matches.
- Damm averages 2.36 sets per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Damm's first-set record is stronger than Tabur's in the hard-court sample.
- Damm has won 10 of 14 first sets on hard courts.
- Tabur has won 8 of 13 first sets on hard courts.
- Damm averages 5.86 games won and 4.14 games lost in first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMartin DammEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Damm's second-set record is better than Tabur's in the hard-court sample.
- Damm has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard courts.
- Tabur has lost 7 of 13 second sets on hard courts.
- Damm averages 5.5 games won and 5.29 games lost in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMartin DammEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tabur's first sets go to tiebreaks often and Damm has a moderate tiebreak rate.
- Damm had a tiebreak in 6 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Tabur had a tiebreak in 8 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Tabur's first sets alone had eight tiebreaks in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is below the 5.5 line.
- Damm averages 3.3 double faults per match.
- Tabur averages 2.0 double faults per match.
- Tabur has only 29 double faults in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages sit just above the 18.5 line.
- Damm averages 13.3 aces per match.
- Tabur averages 5.8 aces per match.
- Their combined average is 19.1 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 18.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Martin Damm

7W 8L

6-4 7-6(4)#345Ugo Blanchet

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 7-6(4)#19Francisco Cerundolo

7-5 6-3#59Yannick Hanfmann

7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-3#165Andrea Guerrieri

6-1 6-4#270Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-3#169Pavel Kotov

2-6 6-1 6-1#10Arthur Fils

4-6 6-3 6-4#28Hubert Hurkacz

6-1 6-4#129Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4#9Frances Tiafoe

2-6 6-3 6-3#63Fabian Marozsan

7-5 6-3#5Daniil Medvedev

6-4 7-6(2)#308Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 7-6(4)#132Stefanos Sakellaridis

Clement Tabur

7W 8L

7-6(4) 6-1#97Toby Samuel

6-3 6-4#243Filippo Romano

7-6(3) 6-3#46Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-1#180Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-6(2) 6-7(3) 6-2#117Valentin Royer

7-6(10) 6-3#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#361Henry Bernet

2-6 6-3 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-1 6-4#300Thomas Faurel

7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3#245Matteo Martineau

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#282Murphy Cassone

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#233Harold Mayot

6-4 7-5#205Braden Shick

4-6 6-4 6-4#310Henri Squire

7-5 6-3#895Orlando Luz

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMartin DammDamm

Last 15

2–5

9 core stats · 2 even

Clement TaburTaburCT

Clement Tabur carries the stronger recent form — Martin Damm's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.8%—63.1%

1st Serve Won78.3%+8.1pp70.2%

2nd Serve Won51.7%+3.0pp54.7%

Aces / Match13.3+7.85.5

Double Faults / Match3.31.4 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.9%+3.6pp36.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted33.3%+6.0pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved58.7%+2.7pp61.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.6%—50.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

62.8%1st Serve In—63.1%

78.3%1st Serve Won+8.1pp70.2%

51.7%2nd Serve Won+3.0pp54.7%

13.3Aces / Match+7.85.5

3.3Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer1.9

Return · 0–1

32.9%Return Pts Won+3.6pp36.5%

Pressure · 0–2

33.3%Break Pts Converted+6.0pp39.3%

58.7%Break Pts Saved+2.7pp61.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.6%Total Pts Won—50.4%