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Predictions graded

Martin Damm #107United States2Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg #181France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Tue 27 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Damm · 74 places

Martin Damm

United States

Damm was born on 30 September 2003 and is a 203 cm left-hander. Structured data supplied for this match lists him at No. 94.

Current ranking: #107
Peak ranking: #94
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 203 cm

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

France

Reached a career-high No. 193 on 17 November 2025. Profile listings identify hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #181
Peak ranking: #193 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 13:07 · Europe/Bucharest

The ranking points to Damm, the recent record points to Gueymard Wayenburg — and the prices sit with the second.

Gueymard Wayenburg, 11-4 on hard in his last 15, is the likelier winner, and 2.6 to win the match, 2.3 for the second set and 2.3 for the first all carry an edge. Damm at 1.45 is not worth it.

Context

The September title supplies recent title-level context entering Brest rather than a routine match result. It sits close enough to this tournament to help explain his career-high ranking the following month. The available evidence does not identify that event’s conditions or opposition, so it does not directly establish a fit for this indoor match.
- His September 2026 trophy was his second Challenger singles title.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 13:04 · Europe/BucharestSascha Gueymard Wayenburg player profileen.wikipedia.org · 25 Oct 2026
The serve is Damm's route into this match: 13.2 aces per match over 15 hard-court matches tracked to 21 October 2026.
The serve numbers sit at the top of his recorded profile — 75.6% of first-serve points won from 733 first serves. The counterweight comes from the same 15 matches: 35.4% break-point conversion (28 of 79) and 50.1% of total points won. Big serving without converted chances is why a 6-9 run sits beneath those serve figures.
- Last 15 hard-court matches tracked to 21 October 2026: 6 wins, 9 losses
- 13.2 aces per match (198 aces across 15 matches)
- 75.6% of first-serve points won (554 of 733)
- 35.4% of break points converted (28 of 79)
The opening set is the most reliable stretch of Damm's 14-match hard-court sample.
A 9-5 first-set record with a 5.7 to 4.2 game margin is the clearest positive in his recent numbers, and it pairs with a serve that holds early. The second set is thinner — 8-6, with six tiebreaks across the 14 matches — so the edge narrows as the match runs. That shapes the read on the opening set more than on the result.
- 14 completed hard-court matches, 1 August–21 October 2026
- Set 1: 9 wins, 5 losses; 5.7 games won to 4.2 lost per set
- Set 2: 8 wins, 6 losses; six second-set tiebreaks in 14 matches
Short, straight-set matches are the pattern in Gueymard Wayenburg's recent hard-court record.
The 15 matches from 10 September to 18 October 2026 produced eight 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses and only four that went the distance. The second sets are the stronger half at 11-4, and only three of the 15 matches included a tiebreak. That profile keeps games and sets low, though 15 matches is a small sample.
- 15 completed hard-court matches, 10 September–18 October 2026
- Straight sets in 11 of 15 (eight 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses)
- 21.9 total games per match on average
- Tiebreaks in 3 of 15 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Gueymard's stronger recent form, return points and break-point conversion give him a narrow overall advantage.
- Gueymard is 11-4 on hard over his last 15 matches.
- He wins 51.6% of total points and converts 47.9% of break points.
- He saves 70.6% of break points, compared with Damm's 59.5%.
- Gueymard is ranked 181, below Damm's 107.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance53%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gueymard's shorter recent matches and likely straight-set outcome point to the under.
- Gueymard's hard-court matches average 21.9 total games.
- Each of Gueymard's last six matches finished under 22.5 total games.
- Damm's straight-set wins over Hanfmann and Gadamauri had 21 and 17 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Damm's long second sets and tiebreaks push the total over more often.
- Damm's set2 average is 10.8 total games.
- Damm has had six set2 tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
- Gueymard's set2 average is 9.7 total games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined set1 average sits just above the line.
- Damm's set1 matches average 9.9 total games.
- Gueymard's set1 matches average 9.5 total games.
- Only 4 of 29 combined set1s have been tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players more often finish in straight sets, especially Gueymard.
- Gueymard's hard-court matches ended in straight sets in 11 of 15 cases.
- Damm's hard-court matches ended in straight sets in 9 of 14 cases.
- Gueymard has an 8-3 record in 2-0 scorelines.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Gueymard's second-set record is clearly stronger than Damm's.
- Gueymard's set2 record on hard is 11-4.
- He wins 5.3 set2 games and loses 4.3.
- Gueymard has won 53.8% of hard-court games overall.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostSascha Gueymard WayenburgEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Damm's first-set record and game margin are the stronger set1 evidence.
- Damm's hard-court set1 record is 9-5.
- Damm wins 5.7 games per set1 and loses 4.2.
- Gueymard's set1 record is 9-6 with a +0.3 game difference.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMartin DammEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these players' recent hard-court matches have avoided tiebreaks.
- Gueymard had a tiebreak in only 3 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Damm had a tiebreak in 6 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Gueymard's last six matches produced one tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average sits below the line, and a straight-set match makes the under more likely.
- The combined double-fault average is 6.0 against a 6.5 line.
- Gueymard averages 2.5 double faults per match.
- Damm averages 3.5 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The ace line sits just above the combined average and a short match favors the under.
- The combined ace average is 22.3 against a 22.5 line.
- Gueymard averages 9.1 aces per match.
- Gueymard's recent matches have mostly been short.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 22.5Estimated chance56%

Prediction history

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg: 2/4 recent winner projections matched

2 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg1-2#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·55%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#268Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg1-2#318Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

55%probability

Igor Ribeiro Marcondes won

Missed

7 Jul·Iasi - Romania

#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-1#528Alexander Donski

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·62%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

Iasi - Romania

#283Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-1#528Alexander Donski

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

62%probability

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg won

Matched

22 Jun·Targu Mures - Romania

#278Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-0#609Gabriel Ghetu

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·65%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

Targu Mures - Romania

#278Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg2-0#609Gabriel Ghetu

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

65%probability

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg won

Matched

29 Apr·Aix-en-Provence - France

#93Roberto Bautista-Agut2-0#262Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

BetBugsSascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win·60%

Missed

29 Apr 2026

Aix-en-Provence - France

#93Roberto Bautista-Agut2-0#262Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg to win

60%probability

Roberto Bautista-Agut won

Missed

Martin Damm

6W 9L

6-4 7-6(4)#21Francisco Cerundolo

7-5 6-3#59Yannick Hanfmann

7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-3#166Andrea Guerrieri

6-1 6-4#254Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-3#172Pavel Kotov

2-6 6-1 6-1#10Arthur Fils

4-6 6-3 6-4#30Hubert Hurkacz

6-1 6-4#129Shintaro Mochizuki

6-4 4-6 3-6 6-3 6-4#9Frances Tiafoe

2-6 6-3 6-3#64Fabian Marozsan

7-5 6-3#5Daniil Medvedev

6-4 7-6(2)#306Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 7-6(4)#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-4#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-3 7-6(3)#105Henrique Rocha

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

11W 4L

6-3 7-5#85Kyrian Jacquet

6-3 6-4#243Matteo Martineau

7-6(10) 6-3#158Clement Tabur

6-4 6-4#233Liam Broady

6-2 6-0#152Clement Chidekh

6-4 6-2#173Joel Schwaerzler

2-6 6-3 6-4#158Clement Tabur

6-1 6-4#178Gauthier Onclin

6-4 7-5#290Pierre-Hugues Herbert

4-6 6-3 7-5#202Harold Mayot

4-6 7-6(8) 6-3#69Titouan Droguet

6-0 6-3#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-4 6-4#344Ugo Blanchet

6-4 6-3#647Maxime Janvier

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#150Mark Lajal

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MDMartin DammDamm

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Sascha Gueymard WayenburgWayenburgSW

Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg carries the stronger recent form — Martin Damm's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.8%+1.3pp60.5%

1st Serve Won75.6%+0.8pp76.4%

2nd Serve Won52.4%—52.7%

Aces / Match13.2+4.19.1

Double Faults / Match3.51.0 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.9%+2.6pp35.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted35.4%+12.5pp47.9%

Break Pts Saved59.5%+11.1pp70.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+1.5pp51.6%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

61.8%1st Serve In+1.3pp60.5%

75.6%1st Serve Won+0.8pp76.4%

52.4%2nd Serve Won—52.7%

13.2Aces / Match+4.19.1

3.5Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer2.5

Return · 0–1

32.9%Return Pts Won+2.6pp35.5%

Pressure · 0–2

35.4%Break Pts Converted+12.5pp47.9%

59.5%Break Pts Saved+11.1pp70.6%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+1.5pp51.6%