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Predictions graded

Kamilla Rakhimova #67Uzbekistan2Maya Joint #94Australia1

Sets 7-5 · 5-7 · 6-1Fri 30 Oct 2026, 01:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–550%

Edges3–260%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKamilla Rakhimova · 27 places

Kamilla Rakhimova

Uzbekistan

ITF lists hard as her preferred surface. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 60; no current public source in the search set established an active injury or return-from-absence issue.

Current ranking: #67
Peak ranking: #60
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Maya Joint

Australia

Joint reached a career-high No. 28 on February 16, 2026. The 20-year-old advanced from Toronto qualifying and won her first-round match, both in three sets.

Current ranking: #94
Peak ranking: #28 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 03:12 · Europe/Bucharest

A place in the Tokyo semi-finals is at stake, and Maya Joint has the clearer case to win: she has stronger recent hard-court wins and a better second-set record than Kamilla Rakhimova.

Joint at 1.73 for the match asks for more than her form supports, while Rakhimova at 2.1 does not appeal. The two prices worth taking are over 23.5 games at 2.2 and over 2.5 sets at 2.3.

Context

The 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 win gives this quarter-final a concrete current-event reference point after Rakhimova eliminated a No. 33 opponent. Reaching this stage required her to close a deciding tie-break after the match had levelled. It does not establish a specific matchup effect against Joint, whom she has not previously faced.
- Rakhimova won the deciding tie-break after splitting the first two sets with Alexandrova.
ReportedSources checked 29 Oct 2026, 03:08 · Europe/BucharestThe Stats Zonewww.thestatszone.com · 28 Oct 2026
Rakhimova's second-set record is the sharpest split in her recent hard-court form: she has won only five of 15 second sets while taking nine of 15 first sets. Against Joint, that makes the second set a natural pressure point and keeps a deciding set in play. The sample covers 15 completed hard-court matches from 2 September to 28 October 2026, so it is a recent pattern rather than a long-term rate.
- Rakhimova's second-set record is 5-10 across 15 completed hard-court matches from 2 September to 28 October 2026.
- She won 9 of 15 first sets and four of her 15 matches went to three sets.
- Her total-sets average is 2.27 sets in the same sample.
Joint's recent hard-court matches have regularly stretched beyond two sets: eight of 14 went the distance, with four 2-1 wins and four 1-2 defeats. That makes a tight, long match a credible shape against Rakhimova, whose own total-sets average is 2.27 sets. Joint's five 2-0 wins show she can also finish quickly, and the 14-match sample excludes one retirement, so the pattern is not one-way.
- Joint's 14 completed hard-court matches from 2 September to 28 October 2026 include eight three-set matches.
- Four were 2-1 wins and four were 1-2 losses.
- Her total-sets average is 2.57 sets, with five 2-0 wins and one 0-2 loss.
- One retirement is excluded from the 14-match sample.
Joint reached this fixture through a 6-1, 2-6, 6-4 win over Bucsa, giving her a current Tokyo route into the last eight. The match will be the pair's first meeting, so there is no prior head-to-head match narrative to carry into it. That makes the result informative about her route, rather than evidence of a player-specific advantage over Rakhimova.
- Joint recovered from losing the second set to defeat Bucsa 6-1, 2-6, 6-4.
- Rakhimova and Joint have not previously met.
ReportedSources checked 29 Oct 2026, 03:08 · Europe/BucharestThe Stats Zonewww.thestatszone.com · 28 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Joint has the better recent wins and a much stronger second-set record on hard courts.
- Joint is 9-5 on hard courts and has won five of her last six completed matches.
- Joint's set2 record is 9-5, while Rakhimova's is 5-10.
- Joint beat Cirstea (17) and Bucsa (38) in Tokyo.
- Rakhimova lost to Sasnovich (122) in the same event.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaya JointEstimated chance54%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Joint has regularly won by more than a game and a half in her recent completed hard matches.
- Joint's last six completed hard-court game margins are +3, +4, +5, +3, -2, +3.
- She covered -1.5 in five of those six matches.
- Rakhimova's recent game margins include -4 twice.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMaya Joint -1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Joint's matches have regularly passed 23.5 games, and Rakhimova has also played two recent 33-game matches.
- Joint's last six completed hard matches averaged 26.3 total games.
- Rakhimova's last six averaged 23.8.
- Joint's hard-court matches average 25.0 games in setEvidence.
- Rakhimova's recent wins over Alexandrova and Prozorova each lasted 33 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first-set averages sit just above the line, with Rakhimova often involved in longer opening sets.
- Rakhimova's set1 average is 9.8 games.
- Joint's set1 average is 9.43 games.
- Rakhimova's last six first sets had five over 9.5 games.
- Joint's last six first sets had two over 9.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-set totals are close, and Joint's recent second sets have often finished at nine games or fewer.
- Joint's set2 average is 9.57 games.
- Rakhimova's set2 average is 9.33.
- Joint's last six second sets had three under 9.5 games.
- Rakhimova's last six second sets had one under 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Joint has been much stronger in second sets, while Rakhimova has lost the second set in two-thirds of her hard matches.
- Joint's set2 record is 9-5 on hard courts.
- Rakhimova's set2 record is 5-10.
- Rakhimova lost the second set in 10 of 15 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMaya JointEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Joint has the slightly better first-set record and has started her recent Tokyo matches strongly.
- Joint's set1 record is 9-5 on hard courts.
- Rakhimova's set1 record is 9-6.
- Joint won the first set in five of her last six matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaya JointEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Joint has gone to a deciding set in more than half her hard-court matches, and Rakhimova has also been extended recently.
- Joint has eight three-set matches in 14 hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova has four three-set matches in 15.
- Joint's total sets average is 2.57.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of both players' completed hard matches have not included a tiebreak.
- Rakhimova has 10 matches without a tiebreak in 15.
- Joint has nine without a tiebreak in 14.
- Combined, 19 of 29 matches had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Previous match context available

Kamilla Rakhimova

9W 6L

6-4 4-6 7-6(5)#33Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 6-4#122Aliaksandra Sasnovich 7-5 6-1#858Shiho Tsujioka

6-4 6-4#26Marie Bouzkova

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#123Tatiana Prozorova

6-2 6-4#103Dayana Yastremska

7-6(2) 6-1#177Han Shi

6-0 6-3#126Sofia Kenin

6-1 7-5#12Iva Jovic

6-2 4-6 6-3#30Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-4 7-6(2)#125Marina Bassols Ribera

6-3 6-0#73Katie Volynets

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#105Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-0#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

Maya Joint

10W 5L

6-1 2-6 6-4#38Cristina Bucsa 6-3 7-6(4)#17Sorana Cirstea 7-5 6-3#168Mai Hontama 6-7(4) 6-4 7-5#82Viktorija Golubic

3-6 6-4 6-3#63Zeynep Sonmez

6-3 3-6 6-3#119Kayla Day

6-4 6-2#246Kyoka Okamura

4-6 6-2 7-6(3)#84Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 3-6 7-5#76Sinja Kraus

6-4 6-2#41Kimberly Birrell

6-4 6-3#53Lanlana Tararudee

6-2 1-0 ret.#79Alina Korneeva

6-2 6-1#259Dayeon Back

2-6 7-6(7) 6-3#268Xinxin Yao

6-2 6-7(6) 6-4#6Elina Svitolina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KRKamilla RakhimovaRakhimova

Last 15

1–5

9 core stats · 3 even

Maya JointJointMJ

Maya Joint carries the stronger recent form — Kamilla Rakhimova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In55.9%+9.2pp65.1%

1st Serve Won61.3%+1.8pp59.5%

2nd Serve Won45.3%+3.7pp49.0%

Aces / Match1.8—1.8

Double Faults / Match5.31.9 fewer3.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won46.0%—46.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.9%+4.2pp48.1%

Break Pts Saved57.5%—57.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.2%+0.8pp51.0%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

55.9%1st Serve In+9.2pp65.1%

61.3%1st Serve Won+1.8pp59.5%

45.3%2nd Serve Won+3.7pp49.0%

1.8Aces / Match—1.8

5.3Double Faults / Match1.9 fewer3.4

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

46.0%Return Pts Won—46.2%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

43.9%Break Pts Converted+4.2pp48.1%

57.5%Break Pts Saved—57.3%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won+0.8pp51.0%

Kamilla Rakhimova

Maya Joint

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Maya Joint

Over 23.5

Over 2.5

Maya Joint

Maya Joint

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Kamilla Rakhimova

Maya Joint

Stat Battle