JapanWTA TokyoFinished

Predictions graded

Shiho Tsujioka #858Japan0Kamilla Rakhimova #67Uzbekistan2

Sets 5-7 · 1-6Sat 24 Oct 2026, 01:35 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–189%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKamilla Rakhimova · 791 places

Shiho Tsujioka

Japan

Tsujioka is listed at No. 858 for Tokyo, with hard as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #858
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Kamilla Rakhimova

Uzbekistan

ITF lists hard as her preferred surface. Her recorded career-high singles ranking is No. 60; no current public source in the search set established an active injury or return-from-absence issue.

Current ranking: #67
Peak ranking: #60
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 21:26 · Europe/Bucharest

A top-70 player against the world No. 858 should be one-sided, and Kamilla Rakhimova's 10-5 first-set record on hard points that way.

Her second sets run 5-10, so a straight-sets win looks likely rather than certain. The only quoted price, Rakhimova at 1.01, treats it as a formality and is one to leave.

Context

Rakhimova has built early leads far more often than she has closed matches out in her recent hard-court sample.
Rakhimova is the likelier player to strike first, and a first-set lead is her most reliable route in this matchup. The second-set split is a warning against assuming a quick, clean finish. Tsujioka's own first sets are level at 7-7, so an early break either way carries weight.
- Set 1 across 15 hard matches (22 Aug–19 Oct 2026): 10 wins, 5 losses, 4 tiebreaks.
- Set 2 across the same 15 matches: 5 wins, 10 losses, 1 tiebreak.
- Total games average 22.6 per match; 5 of 15 went to three sets.
Rakhimova's serve is productive when it finds the box, but the strike rate and fault count hand opponents free points.
When the first serve lands, Rakhimova wins nearly two-thirds of the points, which is the clearest edge on the court. The 53.9% land rate and 5.4 double faults a match give Tsujioka cheap points she would not otherwise get. Tsujioka's own serve numbers are modest, so holding serve may be awkward at both ends.
- First-serve points won: 61.6% (387 of 628) over 15 hard matches.
- First serves in: 53.9% (628 of 1166).
- Double faults: 81 in 15 matches, an average of 5.4 per match.
Tsujioka's results tend to resolve in two sets rather than being ground out over three.
Tsujioka's matches usually end in two sets, and six of her 14 hard-court outings were 0-2 defeats. That pattern supports a Rakhimova win without a third set being needed. It describes how often the match runs long, not who wins the sets.
- Scorelines across 14 hard matches (15 May–15 Oct 2026): six 2-0 wins, six 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win, one 1-2 loss.
- Average 2.14 sets per match across that sample.
- Average duration 108.4 minutes over 14 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Kamilla Rakhimova

1.01fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 99%

−21.0ppshort

Rakhimova has played at a clearly higher level and holds the stronger serve and set record.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.01
The read
Rakhimova has played at a clearly higher level and holds the stronger serve and set record.
- Rakhimova is ranked 67 against 858 for Tsujioka.
- Rakhimova is 9-6 on hard with 54.3% sets and 51.6% games won.
- Tsujioka is 7-8 with 49.7% games and 49.7% total points won.
- Tsujioka's recent wins came against opponents ranked 895, 899 and unranked.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined second-set average sits below 9.5 games.
- Tsujioka's second sets average 8.2 games.
- Rakhimova's second sets average 9.3 games.
- Straight-set results make up most of both records.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's longer matches and occasional three-set wins push the total toward the over.
- Rakhimova's hard-court matches average 22.6 games; Tsujioka's average 18.9.
- Rakhimova has played three sets in 5 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Tsujioka's average match duration is 108.4 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-set averages sit near the line and Rakhimova's tiebreak count supports extra games.
- Rakhimova's first sets average 9.8 games; Tsujioka's average 9.2.
- Rakhimova has four first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Tsujioka has one first-set tiebreak in 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova starts sets better and has the stronger first-strike serve.
- Rakhimova wins 10 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Tsujioka wins 7 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Rakhimova wins 61.6% of first-serve points.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate the hard-court records for both players.
- Rakhimova has ten straight-set matches in 15 on hard.
- Tsujioka has twelve straight-set matches in 14 on hard.
- Rakhimova's 2-0 wins number five; Tsujioka's 0-2 losses number six.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's straight-set wins require her to take the second set, which supports her here.
- Rakhimova has five 2-0 wins in 15 hard-court matches.
- Rakhimova wins 5 of 15 second sets on hard.
- Tsujioka wins 7 of 14 second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonKamilla RakhimovaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rakhimova's first-set edge and Tsujioka's straight-set losses support a 2-0 win.
- Rakhimova has five 2-0 wins in 15 hard matches.
- Rakhimova wins 10 of 15 first sets on hard.
- Tsujioka has six 0-2 losses in 14 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonKamilla Rakhimova 2-0Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most hard-court matches for both players finish without a tiebreak.
- Tsujioka has two matches with a tiebreak in 14 on hard.
- Rakhimova has six matches with a tiebreak in 15.
- Tsujioka has one first-set tiebreak in 14.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate is below the line.
- Rakhimova averages 2.0 aces per match on hard.
- Tsujioka averages 0.4 aces per match on hard.
- Combined average is 2.4, below the 2.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is above the line.
- Rakhimova averages 5.4 double faults per match on hard.
- Tsujioka averages 3.4 double faults per match on hard.
- Combined average is 8.8 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance53%

Shiho Tsujioka

7W 8L

6-3 6-2#416Unknown Player

6-2 6-1#899Arina Varaksina

6-2 6-4#671Sae Noguchi

4-6 6-0 7-6(6)#895Shihomi Li Xuan Leong

6-3 6-4—Kurumi Tamura

6-4 6-2#862Yuhan Liu

7-6(2) 6-1#879Mao Mushika

3-6 6-4 10-6#899Cherry Kim

6-2 6-1#787Himari Sato

3-6 6-2 6-2#671Sae Noguchi

6-4 6-2#895Shihomi Li Xuan Leong

6-3 6-2—Giselle Isabella Guillen

6-2 6-3#599Kanon Sawashiro

6-4 6-3#741Chia Yi Tsao

6-2 6-4—Lisa Kamigata

Kamilla Rakhimova

9W 6L

6-4 6-4#26Marie Bouzkova

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#120Tatiana Prozorova

6-2 6-4#103Dayana Yastremska

7-6(2) 6-1#177Han Shi

6-0 6-3#126Sofia Kenin

6-1 7-5#12Iva Jovic

6-2 4-6 6-3#30Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-4 7-6(2)#129Marina Bassols Ribera

6-3 6-0#73Katie Volynets

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#105Polina Kudermetova

6-3 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

6-3 6-0#100Oksana Selekhmeteva

7-6(4) 6-2#45Barbora Krejcikova

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#70Maria Timofeeva

6-4 4-6 6-2#92Leolia Jeanjean

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

STShiho TsujiokaTsujioka

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimovaKR

Kamilla Rakhimova carries the stronger recent form — Shiho Tsujioka's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1566.0%+12.1pp53.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1555.1%+6.5pp61.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1546.1%—46.7%

Aces / Match13/15 · 15/150.4+1.62.0

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.42.0 fewer5.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1547.4%+2.2pp45.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1545.6%+1.9pp47.5%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1543.1%+13.9pp57.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.7%—50.1%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

66.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+12.1pp53.9%

55.1%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.5pp61.6%

46.1%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—46.7%

0.4Aces / Match13/15 · 15/15+1.62.0

3.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.0 fewer5.4

Return · 1–0

47.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp45.2%

Pressure · 0–2

45.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+1.9pp47.5%

43.1%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+13.9pp57.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.7%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—50.1%