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Predictions graded

Holger Rune #1951Valentin Vacherot #312

Sets 3-6 · 6-3 · 3-6Fri 30 Oct 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions7–370%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageValentin Vacherot · 164 places

Holger Rune

Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 4 in August 2023. Achilles rehabilitation delayed his planned 2026 return.

Current ranking: #195
Peak ranking: #4 · 2023
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Valentin Vacherot

Reached a career-high No. 16 in May 2026 and lists clay as his favourite surface. The 193 cm right-hander returned in July 2026 after a foot stress fracture.

Current ranking: #31
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Vacherot, ranked 31st, meets Rune, ranked 195th but 10-4 on hard courts and twice a three-set winner in Basel this week.

Vacherot's serve and his 2025 head-to-head win make him the fair pick, and 2.1 is a price worth taking; over 2.5 sets at 2.2 and over 25.5 games at 1.95 also stand up. Rune to win set two at 1.75 does not.

Context

Vacherot owns the only head-to-head result between the two, though it is one match from more than a year ago.
A single completed match is a thin sample, yet the scoreline shows how little separated them: a tiebreak decided the second set and one break settled the third. It is relevant here because a deciding set fits both players' set-length records this season.
- 9 October 2025: Vacherot beat Rune 2-6 7-6(4) 6-4 in their only listed meeting.
Rune has won back-to-back three-set matches indoors this week, and the second came against a top-30 opponent.
Hurkacz took the opening set 6-3 before Rune turned it around, finishing with 16 games to 15 across three sets. It suggests Rune is competing well at this level even with a ranking of 195, though a single week is a narrow base for that claim.
- 28 October 2026: beat Hubert Hurkacz (No. 28) 3-6 6-3 7-6, winning 16 games to 15 on indoor hard.
Vacherot starts better than he finishes: he has won set one in eight of those 12 matches but set two in only five.
Six of those 12 second sets needed a tiebreak and the set averaged 11.0 games, so even the losses have been tight. The pattern makes the opening set a better guide to Vacherot than the second, and it is why his matches so often reach a decider.
- 12 hard-court matches tracked from 18 September to 29 October 2026; set-two record five wins and seven losses.
- Six set-two tiebreaks in those 12 matches; set two averaged 11.0 total games.
Vacherot's serve numbers are strong on the first ball, with a clear drop on the second.
He has won 538 of 698 first-serve points (77.1%) and struck 138 aces across 13 matches, while winning only 47.4% of second-serve points. He has also converted 32.6% of break points (28 of 86), so the pressure he applies comes more from holding comfortably than from cashing in chances.
- 13 matches with serve data: 538 of 698 first-serve points won (77.1%) and 138 aces, 10.6 per match.
- Second-serve points won 195 of 411 (47.4%); break points converted 28 of 86 (32.6%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Vacherot's ranking, serve numbers and head-to-head win give him a modest edge in a close match.
- Vacherot is ranked 31st and is 10-5 on hard in the last 15 matches.
- Vacherot wins 77.1% of first-serve points and averages 10.6 aces per match on hard.
- Vacherot has won 50.7% of games on hard.
- Vacherot won their only listed meeting in three sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonValentin VacherotEstimated chance54%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The set-2 averages and Vacherot's frequent set-2 tiebreaks point to a longer second set.
- Rune's set 2 averages 10.14 total games; Vacherot's averages 11.0.
- Vacherot has six set-2 tiebreaks in 12 hard-court matches; Rune has four in 14.
- Combined set-2 average is about 10.6 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both players' recent matches and season averages sit around or above the line.
- Rune's hard-court matches average 25.36 total games; Vacherot's average 26.0.
- Rune's last three completed matches contained 31, 36 and 30 games.
- Vacherot's last match contained 34 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 25.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The set-1 game averages sit just above the line, giving a small lean to over.
- Rune's set 1 averages 9.64 total games on hard; Vacherot's averages 10.58.
- Vacherot has three set-1 tiebreaks in 12 hard-court matches; Rune has one in 14.
- Combined set-1 average is about 10.1 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Vacherot's match-winning edge and Rune's occasional wide losses make a close game margin more likely than a clear Rune advantage.
- Vacherot's last six hard-court game margins: -2, +4, 0, -6, +3, -6.
- Vacherot's recent game-margin average is -1.2.
- Vacherot won their only listed meeting despite losing the total-games count 15-16.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonValentin Vacherot +0.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Rune's second-set record is clearly better than Vacherot's, making him the pick for this set.
- Rune has won set 2 in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Vacherot has lost set 2 in 7 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Rune's set-2 win rate is 57.1% on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHolger RuneEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
The set-length records and head-to-head give a slight lean to a deciding set.
- Rune's hard-court matches average 2.5 sets; Vacherot's average 2.42.
- Rune has 7 three-set matches in 14; Vacherot has 5 in 12.
- Their only listed meeting went three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Vacherot's set-1 game numbers are slightly stronger, giving him a marginal opening-set edge.
- Vacherot has won set 1 in 8 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Vacherot averages 5.67 games won and 4.92 lost in set 1.
- Rune has won set 1 in 9 of 14 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonValentin VacherotEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court records and recent matches show a high rate of tiebreaks.
- Rune has had a tiebreak in 7 of 14 hard-court matches; Vacherot in 8 of 12.
- Their only listed meeting included a tiebreak.
- Vacherot's last match had two tiebreaks; Rune's last two each had at least one.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance61%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L2-6 7-6(4) 6-4Holger Rune#195vValentin Vacherot#31Oct 9, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Holger Rune

10W 5L

3-6 6-3 7-6(7)#28Hubert Hurkacz 6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#45Quentin Halys

1-6 7-6(5) 6-4#60Daniel Altmaier

6-3 6-1#85Kyrian Jacquet

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#124Grigor Dimitrov

6-3 6-3#574Iliyan Radulov

4-6 2-2 ret.#35Ugo Humbert

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-4 6-4#143Marton Fucsovics

2-6 7-6(4) 6-4#31Valentin Vacherot

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#148Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-4 6-4#35Ugo Humbert

7-5 6-4#49Sebastian Baez

6-3 6-3#94Jenson Brooksby

6-4 6-2#63Ethan Quinn

Valentin Vacherot

10W 5L

7-6(4) 2-6 7-6(5)#11Rafael Jodar

6-3 7-6(4)#43Mariano Navone

2-6 6-4 6-4#46Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-2#15Tommy Paul

6-4 7-6(5)#49Sebastian Baez

6-4 6-2#21Jiri Lehecka

7-5 4-6 6-4#10Arthur Fils

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#33Stefanos Tsitsipas

7-6(2) 7-6(4)#27Alexander Blockx

6-4 7-6(5)#108Lloyd Harris

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#121Otto Virtanen

6-3 7-6(3)#475Eero Vasa

6-4 6-2 6-4#9Frances Tiafoe

6-4 4-6 7-6(3) 6-2#82Kamil Majchrzak

6-2 6-3 7-5#82Aleksandar Kovacevic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HRHolger RuneRune

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Valentin VacherotVacherotVV

Holger Rune carries the stronger recent form — Valentin Vacherot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In13/15 · 13/1563.7%+0.8pp62.9%

1st Serve Won13/15 · 13/1574.5%+2.6pp77.1%

2nd Serve Won13/15 · 13/1554.6%+7.2pp47.4%

Aces / Match13/15 · 13/156.8+3.810.6

Double Faults / Match13/15 · 13/152.81.1 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won13/15 · 13/1536.2%+2.0pp34.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted13/15 · 13/1539.3%+6.7pp32.6%

Break Pts Saved13/15 · 13/1560.7%+2.9pp63.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won13/15 · 13/1551.3%+1.2pp50.1%

Serve · 3–2

63.7%1st Serve In13/15 · 13/15+0.8pp62.9%

74.5%1st Serve Won13/15 · 13/15+2.6pp77.1%

54.6%2nd Serve Won13/15 · 13/15+7.2pp47.4%

6.8Aces / Match13/15 · 13/15+3.810.6

2.8Double Faults / Match13/15 · 13/151.1 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

36.2%Return Pts Won13/15 · 13/15+2.0pp34.2%

Pressure · 1–1

39.3%Break Pts Converted13/15 · 13/15+6.7pp32.6%

60.7%Break Pts Saved13/15 · 13/15+2.9pp63.6%

Points · 1–0

51.3%Total Pts Won13/15 · 13/15+1.2pp50.1%

Holger Rune

Valentin Vacherot

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Valentin Vacherot

Over 25.5

Over 2.5

Holger Rune

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Holger Rune

Valentin Vacherot

Stat Battle