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Predictions graded

Terence Atmane #98France2Taro Daniel #179Japan0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Thu 29 Oct 2026, 02:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–271%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTerence Atmane · 81 places

Terence Atmane

France

Reached a career-high No. 41 on April 13, 2026. The reviewed public results did not establish a reliable preferred-surface label or a current active fitness issue.

Current ranking: #98
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Taro Daniel

Japan

Daniel was born on 27 January 1993 and has reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 58. The supplied current ranking is No. 186.

Current ranking: #179
Peak ranking: #58
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 03:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Atmane is the higher-ranked man, but Daniel has won 11 of his 15 opening sets on hard since mid-August, and Atmane had to come from a set down in his Seoul opener.

Atmane still looks the likelier winner. The one quoted price with an edge is Daniel to take the first set at 2.2; Atmane's 1.55 to win the match asks for more than the evidence supports.

Context

Daniel's strongest recent habit is winning the first set, and his 8-7 record shows that start has not always been converted.
The opening set is where Daniel has been most reliable: 11 wins from 15 attempts across a sample running from 19 August to 27 October. Closing matches out has been harder — his record across those same 15 matches was 8-7 — so a good start has not consistently carried through. Against a higher-ranked opponent, that fast start is his clearest route into the contest.
- Daniel won 11 of 15 opening sets across 15 completed best-of-3 hard-court matches between 19 August and 27 October 2026.
- He averaged 5.5 games won and 4.3 games lost in first sets over that sample.
- His record across those 15 matches was 8-7.
Atmane’s first match in Seoul lasted 1 hour and 51 minutes and required a turnaround after losing the opening set. That route establishes the immediate tournament context for this round-of-16 fixture. It does not by itself establish an availability concern or a lasting physical limitation.
- Atmane recovered from a set down to beat Matsuda 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 in 1 hour and 51 minutes .
- The win set up a Seoul round-of-16 meeting with Daniel.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Oct 2026, 03:34 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 27 Oct 2026
That result is the strongest name on Atmane's recent hard-court record, and it came without either man breaking away: all three sets went to tiebreaks. It shows he can hold his level deep into a tight match against a top-70 opponent, though the scoreline also shows how little separated the two players. A similarly close contest here would not be a surprise.
- Atmane beat Mattia Bellucci, ranked No. 68, 6-7, 7-6, 7-6 on 22 October 2026 on indoor hard.
- All three sets were decided by tiebreak.
Atmane's matches have regularly stretched beyond the shape of a quick straight-set win, and three of the 11 went to a deciding set. Six of the 11 contained a tiebreak, so sets have often been settled by small margins rather than a single break. That points to a contest with room for a long set or two, though it is a small sample.
- Atmane's 11 completed best-of-3 hard-court matches from 5 August to 27 October 2026 averaged 24.3 total games.
- Six of those 11 matches included at least one tiebreak.
- Three of the 11 went to a third set (two 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Terence Atmane

1.55fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 64.5%

−6.5ppshort

The ranking gap and better recent wins against higher-ranked opponents point to Atmane, though the match is unlikely to be one-sided.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
The ranking gap and better recent wins against higher-ranked opponents point to Atmane, though the match is unlikely to be one-sided.
- Atmane is ranked 98; Daniel is ranked 179.
- Atmane is 7-5 on hard in the tracked sample; Daniel is 8-7.
- Atmane has recent hard wins over No. 68 Bellucci and No. 86 Hijikata.
- Daniel has four losses in his last five completed matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTerence AtmaneEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The opening-set averages sit above the line, and Atmane's first sets often go beyond nine games.
- Atmane's opening sets average 10.5 total games; Daniel's 9.8.
- Atmane has had 3 opening-set tiebreaks in 11 hard matches; Daniel 2 in 15.
- Both average more than nine games in the first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Atmane's matches tend to run longer, and the line sits close to the combined recent average.
- Atmane's hard-court matches average 24.3 total games; Daniel's average 21.4.
- Atmane has played three sets in 3 of 11 tracked hard matches; Daniel in 3 of 15.
- Atmane's opening-set games average 10.5; Daniel's 9.8.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of these two players' completed hard matches have ended in straight sets.
- Daniel has won 8 of 15 tracked hard matches in straight sets.
- Atmane has won 5 of 11 tracked hard matches 2-0.
- Daniel's total sets average is 2.2; Atmane's is 2.27.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Daniel's opening-set record is clearly better, and he has started fast in most recent matches.
- Daniel has won 11 of 15 opening sets on hard.
- Atmane has won 6 of 11 opening sets.
- Daniel won the first set in four of his last six completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTaro DanielEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Daniel often wins sets with a break rather than a tiebreak, which lowers the chance of one in the match.
- Daniel has had no tiebreak in 10 of 15 tracked hard matches.
- Atmane has had no tiebreak in 5 of 11 tracked hard matches.
- Daniel's set1 games lost average is 4.3.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance53%

Prediction history

Terence Atmane: 1/4 recent winner projections matched

1 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Terence Atmane matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Terence Atmane4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

22 Jun·ATP Eastbourne

#84Gabriel Diallo2-1#53Terence Atmane

BetBugsTerence Atmane to win·58%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Eastbourne

#84Gabriel Diallo2-1#53Terence Atmane

Terence Atmane to win

58%probability

Gabriel Diallo won

Missed

25 May·ATP Roland Garros

#854Thanasi Kokkinakis3-2#51Terence Atmane

BetBugsTerence Atmane to win·65%

Missed

25 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#854Thanasi Kokkinakis3-2#51Terence Atmane

Terence Atmane to win

65%probability

Thanasi Kokkinakis won

Missed

14 May·Bordeaux - France

#109Titouan Droguet2-1#51Terence Atmane

BetBugsTerence Atmane to win·62%

Missed

14 May 2026

Bordeaux - France

#109Titouan Droguet2-1#51Terence Atmane

Terence Atmane to win

62%probability

Titouan Droguet won

Missed

7 Apr·ATP

#45Terence Atmane2-0#54Ethan Quinn

BetBugsTerence Atmane to win·55%

Matched

7 Apr 2026

ATP

#45Terence Atmane2-0#54Ethan Quinn

Terence Atmane to win

55%probability

Terence Atmane won

Matched

Previous match context available

Terence Atmane

8W 7L

4-6 6-1 6-2#475Koki Matsuda 6-4 6-4#5Daniil Medvedev

6-7(4) 7-6(2) 7-6(5)#68Mattia Bellucci

7-6(5) 6-2#86Rinky Hijikata

6-3 4-6 5-3 ret.#180Bernard Tomic

4-6 7-5 5-5 ret.#228Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#435Enzo Aguiard

6-1 6-4#620Dominik Palan

3-6 7-6(9) 6-4#56Jaime Faria

6-7(5) 3-6 6-1 7-6(4) 7-5#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

7-6(4) 7-6(6)#2Alexander Zverev

6-3 7-6(4)#29Tomas Martin Etcheverry

3-1 ret.#141Marton Fucsovics

7-5 6-4#16Jakub Mensik

6-4 7-6(3)#25Karen Khachanov

Taro Daniel

8W 7L

6-3 6-1#203Andre Ilagan

6-2 7-5#128Nikoloz Basilashvili

2-6 6-2 6-2#129Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 6-2#54Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

6-7(2) 7-5 7-6(1)#64Fabian Marozsan

7-6(6) 6-2#112Dane Sweeny

6-4 7-6(9)#242Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 6-4#357Jake Delaney

7-5 7-6(5)#225Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-1#250Matthew Dellavedova

2-6 6-2 6-4#724Andrew Johnson

6-4 7-6(8)#133Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-4 6-1#87Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-3#113Jan Choinski

6-3 6-2#467Duncan Chan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TATerence AtmaneAtmane

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Taro DanielDanielTD

Terence Atmane carries the stronger recent form — Taro Daniel's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.1%+3.9pp58.2%

1st Serve Won75.4%+5.6pp69.8%

2nd Serve Won53.8%+2.3pp56.1%

Aces / Match7.8+3.34.5

Double Faults / Match3.52.2 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won31.0%+7.9pp38.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.8%+5.2pp41.6%

Break Pts Saved70.7%+10.4pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.1%+1.0pp51.1%

Serve · 3–2

62.1%1st Serve In+3.9pp58.2%

75.4%1st Serve Won+5.6pp69.8%

53.8%2nd Serve Won+2.3pp56.1%

7.8Aces / Match+3.34.5

3.5Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer1.3

Return · 0–1

31.0%Return Pts Won+7.9pp38.9%

Pressure · 2–0

46.8%Break Pts Converted+5.2pp41.6%

70.7%Break Pts Saved+10.4pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

50.1%Total Pts Won+1.0pp51.1%