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Predictions graded

Elias Ymer #228Sweden1Yi Zhou #280China2

Sets 6-1 · 6-7 · 4-6Tue 27 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElias Ymer · 52 places

Elias Ymer

Sweden

Former world No. 105. Public results indexed for 2026 show retirements in March, but no current-tournament or last-30-days fitness report was found.

Current ranking: #228
Peak ranking: #105
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Yi Zhou

China

At 21, he has a career-high ranking of No. 217, reached on 25 May 2026. He is a 193 cm right-hander; no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #280
Peak ranking: #217 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Zhou's better recent form meets an opponent whose results look worse than his sets.

Zhou is the likelier winner, but 1.3 asks for dominance his 7-8 hard-court record and 6-9 second-set split do not support. Ymer at 3.5 to win, and 2.9 to take either the first or second set, are the quotes the evidence supports; Zhou's 1.36 set prices are not.

Context

The episode occurred during the same China swing less than two months before this Ningbo match, making it relevant recent physical context for Ymer. It ended his Zhangjiagang campaign rather than being a normal loss, so it materially qualifies his recent results. The available evidence records an acute heat-and-humidity episode, not a continuing diagnosis or a confirmed restriction for Ningbo.
- Ymer collapsed twice on court against Hsu Yu-hsiou in Zhangjiagang and retired at 5-5 in the second set.
- The match was suspended while Ymer received medical attention before his withdrawal.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:30 · Europe/BucharestYahoo Newsau.news.yahoo.com · 1 Sep 2026DailySportsdailysports.net · 1 Sep 2026
Zhou's opening set has been his strongest part of the match; the second set is where he has given ground.
Zhou's 9-6 first-set record against Ymer's 6-7 makes the opener his best avenue, and the 5.47 games he averages there backs that up. A fall to 6-9 in second sets means a one-set lead would not settle the match for him. Ymer's second-set numbers (5-8) are similarly modest, so the middle set looks the least predictable part of the fixture.
- 15 completed hard-court matches tracked, 22 July to 24 October 2026: 9-6 in first sets, 6-9 in second sets.
- First-set games average 5.47 won to 5.07 lost; second-set average 4.53 won to 5.13 lost.
- Eight of the 15 matches contained at least one tiebreak; total games averaged 23.73.
Ymer's sets have tended to be tightly contested even while the results went against him.
His games averages sit near even in both sets (4.69-5.31 and 4.77-5.62), and five of the 13 matches went the distance, which gives him a route to at least one set. The counterweight is that five of his nine defeats came in straight sets, so closeness in the scorelines has not translated into wins. The sample covers two months and 13 matches only.
- 13 completed hard-court matches, 17 August to 19 October 2026: 4-9 record, 24.85 average total games.
- Scorelines: 0-2 five times, 1-2 four times, 2-0 three times, 2-1 once.
- First sets 6-7, second sets 5-8; 7 of the 13 matches included a tiebreak.
The latest evidence shows Ymer starting slowly, then recovering to make the match long.
The blank opening set fits a wider pattern: Ymer has taken only 6 of 13 first sets in the tracked sample. He steadied to win the second set and pushed the third to a tiebreak, which is why his matches keep running past two sets. It is still one match, and the defeat came against a player ranked below him.
- 19 October 2026: loss to James McCabe (No. 259) 0-6, 7-6, 6-7 in a completed hard-court match.
- Ymer won 13 games to McCabe's 19 across the three sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zhou has the better recent hard-court results and starts matches more reliably than Ymer.
- Zhou is 7-8 in 15 tracked hard-court matches and 9-6 in first sets.
- He has won four of his last six completed matches, including a win over a top-30 opponent.
- He wins 77.2% of first-serve points and saves 64.6% of break points.
- Ymer has lost his last six completed matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYi ZhouEstimated chance61%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set games averages sit above the line and tiebreaks add to the over chance.
- Ymer's first sets average 10.0 total games; Zhou's average 10.53.
- Ymer has two first-set tiebreaks in 13; Zhou has five in 15.
- Combined first-set total-games average is about 10.27.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes are the majority in both samples, keeping the under slightly favored.
- Eighteen of 28 combined hard-court matches ended in straight sets.
- Zhou has 10 straight-set results in 15 matches; Ymer has 8 in 13.
- The combined total-games average is about 24.29.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 24.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set averages are around the line, with Ymer's matches leaning over.
- Ymer's second sets average 10.38 total games; Zhou's average 9.67.
- Combined second-set total-games average is about 10.0.
- Ymer has three second-set tiebreaks in 13; Zhou two in 15.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both players finished in straight sets.
- Eighteen of 28 combined hard-court matches ended in two sets.
- Zhou has 10 straight-set results in 15 matches and Ymer has 8 in 13.
- Both total-sets averages are below 2.5.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zhou starts hard-court matches better and has the stronger first-set record.
- Zhou has won 9 of 15 first sets on hard courts; Ymer has lost 7 of 13.
- Zhou's first-set games average is 5.47-5.07; Ymer's is 4.69-5.31.
- Zhou has five first-set tiebreaks in 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYi ZhouEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Zhou's recent second-set results are stronger even though his overall hard-court second-set record is modest.
- Zhou has won 6 of 15 second sets on hard courts; Ymer has won 5 of 13.
- Zhou won the second set in four of his last six completed matches.
- Ymer won only one second set in his last six completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonYi ZhouEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court samples show tiebreaks in more than half of their matches.
- Ymer had a tiebreak in 7 of 13 hard-court matches; Zhou in 8 of 15.
- Combined, 15 of 28 matches had at least one tiebreak.
- Zhou has five first-set tiebreaks in 15; Ymer two in 13.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance54%

Prediction history

Yi Zhou: 6/10 recent winner projections matched

6 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Yi Zhou matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Yi Zhou10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#325Daniel Milavsky2-1#239Yi Zhou

BetBugsYi Zhou to win·58%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#325Daniel Milavsky2-1#239Yi Zhou

Yi Zhou to win

58%probability

Daniel Milavsky won

Missed

22 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#232Yi Zhou0-2#278Luka Pavlovic

BetBugsYi Zhou to win·62%

Missed

22 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#232Yi Zhou0-2#278Luka Pavlovic

Yi Zhou to win

62%probability

Luka Pavlovic won

Missed

20 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#236Yi Zhou2-0#328Michael Geerts

BetBugsYi Zhou to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#236Yi Zhou2-0#328Michael Geerts

Yi Zhou to win

62%probability

Yi Zhou won

Matched

15 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#236Yi Zhou1-2#379Tiago Pereira

BetBugsYi Zhou to win·62%

Missed

15 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#236Yi Zhou1-2#379Tiago Pereira

Yi Zhou to win

62%probability

Tiago Pereira won

Missed

14 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#236Yi Zhou2-1#296Stefan Kozlov

BetBugsYi Zhou to win·62%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#236Yi Zhou2-1#296Stefan Kozlov

Yi Zhou to win

62%probability

Yi Zhou won

Matched

Previous match context available

Elias Ymer

5W 10L

6-0 6-7(2) 7-6(6)#259James McCabe

6-2 6-1#68Mattia Bellucci

4-6 7-5 7-6(3)#68Mattia Bellucci

3-6 6-3 6-4#135Federico Cina

4-6 7-5 5-5 ret.#98Terence Atmane

7-5 7-6(5)#182Alexis Galarneau

7-6(4) 6-3#225Marat Sharipov (RUS)

7-6(6) 6-4#449Luca Castelnuovo

5-7 7-5 6-3#430Semen Pankin

3-6 6-3 7-6(9)#172Pavel Kotov

7-6(4) 5-5 ret.#287Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-2 7-6(5)#131Cristian Garin

6-4 6-3#257Franco Roncadelli

6-4 6-3#156Daniil Glinka

6-4 6-4#391Paul Jubb

Yi Zhou

7W 8L

7-6(3) 6-3#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong 7-6(2) 6-2#203Andre Ilagan

6-3 6-4#170Zhizhen Zhang

6-1 6-3#475Koki Matsuda

6-2 3-6 6-3#30Hubert Hurkacz

7-6(7) 3-6 7-6(1)#26Lorenzo Musetti

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#68Mattia Bellucci

7-5 6-3#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-4 6-3#53Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-3 6-3#221Ilya Ivashka

7-6(3) 6-4#448Jie Cui

7-6(1) 7-5#294Sergey Fomin

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#221Ilya Ivashka

3-6 6-1 6-3#319Daniel Milavsky

6-4 7-6(6)#207Luka Pavlovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EYElias YmerYmer

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Yi ZhouZhouYZ

Yi Zhou carries the stronger recent form — Elias Ymer's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In62.2%+1.5pp63.7%

1st Serve Won68.2%+9.0pp77.2%

2nd Serve Won53.4%+5.5pp47.9%

Aces / Match6.9+1.48.3

Double Faults / Match3.00.5 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won34.0%+2.0pp32.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted36.7%+4.9pp31.8%

Break Pts Saved66.4%+1.8pp64.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.6%+0.9pp49.5%

Serve · 1–4

62.2%1st Serve In+1.5pp63.7%

68.2%1st Serve Won+9.0pp77.2%

53.4%2nd Serve Won+5.5pp47.9%

6.9Aces / Match+1.48.3

3.0Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

34.0%Return Pts Won+2.0pp32.0%

Pressure · 2–0

36.7%Break Pts Converted+4.9pp31.8%

66.4%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp64.6%

Points · 0–1

48.6%Total Pts Won+0.9pp49.5%