Yi Zhou #236China22 – 1Stefan Kozlov #296United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Zhou's superior hard-court record and surface preference, combined with Kozlov's weaker recent hard-court results, give Zhou a clear edge in this outdoor hard-court match.

• Yi Zhou has a 9-9 hard-court record in 2026, including a recent 2-0 win over No. 150 Stefano Travaglia and a 2-0 win over No. 231 Guy Den Ouden.
• Stefan Kozlov is 5-6 on hard courts in 2026, with losses to players ranked outside the top 300 (e.g., No. 492 Alejo Sanchez Quilez, No. 569 Alan Magadan).
• Zhou's career hard-court win percentage is 73/100 (73%), while Kozlov's is 171/342 (50%).
• Intel confirms Zhou's favorite surface is hard court, while Kozlov's is clay, giving Zhou a surface-fit edge in Pozoblanco.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match lengths for both players suggest a competitive match that could exceed 21.5 games, even in a straight-set scenario.

• Zhou's last 5 matches have averaged 22.2 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Kozlov's last 5 matches have averaged 22.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, with Zhou playing 3 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches and Kozlov playing 4 in his last 10.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Zhou's strong first-set record and Kozlov's recent struggles in opening sets make Zhou the likely set 1 winner.

• Zhou has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches, including against higher-ranked opponents like Travaglia (No. 150) and Den Ouden (No. 231).
• Kozlov has lost the first set in 4 of his last 6 matches, including against lower-ranked players like Sanchez Quilez (No. 492) and Magadan (No. 569).
• Zhou's first-set win conversion rate is 76% over his career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Zhou's consistent ace output and Kozlov's occasional higher ace matches make over 7.5 aces a reasonable expectation.

• Zhou averages 7.3 aces per match over his career, with a recent match against De Jonge where he hit 8 aces.
• Kozlov averages 3.9 aces per match, but his recent matches have seen higher ace counts, including 5 against Fearnley.
• Combined, their average ace rates suggest a total around 11.2 aces per match, though recent form may lower this slightly.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Kozlov's high double fault rate, combined with Zhou's moderate rate, makes over 5.5 double faults likely.

• Zhou averages 3.6 double faults per match, with recent matches showing 4 against Gray and 3 against De Jonge.
• Kozlov averages 5.6 double faults per match, with recent matches showing 6 against Fearnley and 5 against Wu.
• Combined, their average double fault rates suggest a total around 9.2 per match, though recent form may lower this slightly.