EcuadorGuayaquil - EcuadorFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Alan Magadan #504Mexico2Tristan Mccormick #656United States0

Sets 6-3 · 6-2Tue 27 Oct 2026, 17:00 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions2–433%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlan Magadan · 152 places

Alan Magadan

Mexico

Mexican right-hander; ITF lists hard as his preferred surface. Public profile sources list a singles career-high of No. 554 in August 2026; no verified current injury or comeback context was found.

Current ranking: #504
Peak ranking: #554 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Tristan Mccormick

United States

American right-hander, 196 cm, with a one-handed backhand and coached by Emilio Sánchez. Ranked No. 713, he reached the singles final at the M15 in Quito in the week ending 11 October 2026 and was a doubles runner-up there. Age and career-high ranking are not reliably established.

Current ranking: #656
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Guayaquil's qualifying final on clay turns on whether Mccormick's serve, 73.0% of first-serve points won across 15 clay matches, outweighs Magadan's higher ranking and stronger return game.

Mccormick is the slightly likelier winner. The 2.2 about him is the one quoted price worth taking; Magadan's 1.6 asks far more than a four-match clay record supports.

Context

He averages 4.93 games won and 5.53 lost in opening sets, then 5.00 won and 4.33 lost in second sets.
The split matters in a match where the opening set has often gone against him, and it means an early deficit has not usually been decisive. Three of the 15 matches contained a tiebreak, so sets have tended to be settled by a single break rather than a shootout. A first set lost is not the same as a match lost on this record.
- Set one across 15 clay best-of-three matches: 6 wins, 9 losses, 3 tiebreaks, 4.93 games won and 5.53 lost per set.
- Set two in the same sample: 9 wins, 6 losses, 1 tiebreak, 5.00 games won and 4.33 lost.
- Window: September 2 to October 25, 2026; 15 completed matches, no retirements.
He is ranked 504, above Mccormick's 656, but his clay results are both recent and few.
Four matches cannot separate a settled clay level from a short run, and two of the four were straight-set defeats. His wider 15-match record of 9-6 and a return game worth 41.1% of points are the counterweight. Any read on his clay form carries wide error bars.
- Clay best-of-three window October 4 to October 19, 2026: 4 matches, 2 wins, 2 losses.
- 45.7% of games won (37/81) and 48.1% of points won (268/557) in that sample.
- Sets won 4, sets lost 9; set one record 1-3.
That win is the freshest evidence in the feed, but it came against an opponent with no ranking listed.
The 7-5 opening set fits the wider pattern of tight first sets in his clay matches. The results before it were mixed on the same surface, which is why his serving numbers rather than his win-loss line carry his case here. Ranking 656 against Magadan's 504 makes the recent form the weaker half of his profile.
- October 25, 2026, clay: won 7-5, 6-3 against Bernardo Munk Mesa (no ranking listed), 13 games to 8.
- Completed in two sets with no retirement; most recent completed match in the feed.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Mccormick's serve and larger clay sample give him a narrow advantage, though the ranking gap points the other way.
- Clay last 15: 8-7, with 50.4% total points and 50.3% games won.
- First-serve points won 73.0% on clay; 6.7 aces per match.
- Saved 65.6% of break points on clay.
- Set one 6-9 and set two 9-6 on clay best-of-three.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTristan MccormickEstimated chance56%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mccormick's matches tend to run longer, and a competitive qualifier can pass this mark.
- Mccormick's clay best-of-three matches average 23.1 total games over 15 matches.
- Magadan's clay best-of-three matches average 20.3 total games over four matches.
- Five of Mccormick's 15 clay matches went three sets.
- Magadan's clay set totals combine to 20.3 games per match.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most completed clay matches in this sample ended in straight sets.
- Mccormick went three sets in 5 of 15 clay best-of-three matches (33%).
- Magadan went three sets in 1 of 4 clay best-of-three matches (25%).
- Combined scorelines show 13 straight-set matches in 19.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mccormick has won set one more often than Magadan in the available clay matches.
- Mccormick set one: 6 wins, 9 losses on clay best-of-three.
- Magadan set one: 1 win, 3 losses on clay best-of-three.
- Mccormick averages 4.93 games won and 5.53 lost in set one.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTristan MccormickEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of the available clay matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Mccormick: 3 of 15 clay best-of-three matches had a tiebreak.
- Magadan: 1 of 4 clay best-of-three matches had a tiebreak.
- Combined: 4 of 19 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both clay ace averages together project below 10.5.
- Mccormick averages 6.7 aces per match on clay (101/15).
- Magadan averages 1.3 aces per match on clay (5/4).
- Combined clay average is 8.0 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate is above the mark.
- Mccormick averages 4.1 double faults per clay match (61/15).
- Magadan averages 3.3 double faults per clay match (13/4).
- Combined clay average is 7.4 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance56%

Previous match context available

Alan Magadan

9W 6L

6-3 6-1#691Daniel Salazar Martinez

6-3 6-2—Juan Miguel Bolivar Idarraga

6-1 6-4#612Joao Eduardo Schiessl

3-6 6-3 7-6(5)#1557Nicolas Bruna

6-4 1-6 7-6(3)#92Chak Lam Coleman Wong

4-6 6-0 6-4#507Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-3 7-6(6)#215Rio Noguchi

6-4 7-6(5)#193David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 7-5—Max Sheldon

6-3 7-6(6)#507Juan Alejandro Hernandez

2-6 6-1 6-1#458Garrett Johns

7-5 6-3#101Michael Zheng

3-6 6-1 7-6(4)#278Stefan Kozlov

7-6(3) 3-6 7-6(4)#336Aidan Mayo

6-1 6-0—Owen Demuth

Tristan Mccormick

8W 7L

7-5 6-3—Bernardo Munk Mesa

6-1 6-4#742Jose Pereira

6-3 7-5#672Juan Sebastian Osorio

7-6(3) 7-6(4)—Alberto Alvarado Berrospi

6-4 6-2—Dakotah Bobo

6-4 6-3#663Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-7(4) 7-5 6-2—Victor Bini

6-7(3) 6-4 7-6(6)#507Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-4 3-6 6-4#1419Sergio Luis Hernandez Ramirez

6-3 6-1#994Tyler Mercier

6-4 6-2#458Garrett Johns

6-3 1-6 6-3#898Marcello Serafini

6-4 2-6 6-3—Xavi Palomar

6-4 6-4—Carlos Giraldi

7-5 6-2#891Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAlan MagadanMagadan

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Tristan MccormickMccormickTM

Alan Magadan carries the stronger recent form — Tristan Mccormick's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In61.8%+3.1pp58.7%

1st Serve Won66.8%+6.2pp73.0%

2nd Serve Won51.4%+0.9pp50.5%

Aces / Match4.0+2.76.7

Double Faults / Match2.61.5 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.1%+3.5pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.2%+1.3pp35.9%

Break Pts Saved60.4%+5.2pp65.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.9%—50.4%

Serve · 3–2

61.8%1st Serve In+3.1pp58.7%

66.8%1st Serve Won+6.2pp73.0%

51.4%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp50.5%

4.0Aces / Match+2.76.7

2.6Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

41.1%Return Pts Won+3.5pp37.6%

Pressure · 1–1

37.2%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp35.9%

60.4%Break Pts Saved+5.2pp65.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.9%Total Pts Won—50.4%