EcuadorGuayaquil - EcuadorFinished

Predictions graded

Bernardo Munk MesaSpain0Tristan Mccormick #656United States2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Sun 25 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions6–186%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Bernardo Munk Mesa

Spain

No current ranking is listed for Munk Mesa in the available structured data. His recent schedule is almost entirely on clay, and he has six wins from his last fifteen tracked matches.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Tristan Mccormick

United States

American right-hander, 196 cm, with a one-handed backhand and coached by Emilio Sánchez. Ranked No. 713, he reached the singles final at the M15 in Quito in the week ending 11 October 2026 and was a doubles runner-up there. Age and career-high ranking are not reliably established.

Current ranking: #656
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 10:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Two clay-court qualifiers with almost nothing between them: Munk Mesa starts sets better, Mccormick finishes them better.

Mccormick, ranked 656, looks the slightly likelier winner, and the 2.2 for him to take the match is worth something; the 2.2 for him to win the second set is the stronger of the two. At 1.6, Munk Mesa to win the match, first set or second set asks more than his 5-8 clay record supports.

Context

Munk Mesa's first-set record is his strong point; the second set is the weaker half of his clay matches.
His opening sets on clay have been close but tilted his way; the second set is where matches slip, with only four games won on average. Against an opponent who is 8-7 in second sets on clay, that is the phase Munk Mesa most needs to hold.
- Set 1 across 13 clay matches (19 Aug-18 Oct 2026): 7-6, averaging 4.77 games won to 4.62 lost.
- Set 2 across the same 13 matches: 5-8, averaging 4.0 games won to 5.0 lost.
- Two first-set tiebreaks and no second-set tiebreaks in those 13 matches.
Mccormick's serve data is the most complete part of his clay profile; his conversion and second-serve numbers are the softer side.
He wins plenty behind the first serve but takes barely a third of his break points, so sets can drift even when he is the better server. Against an opponent who is 5-8 in second sets on clay, holding enough service games is likely to decide whether that serving edge shows on the scoreboard.
- 73.1% of first-serve points won (456/624) across 15 clay matches, 27 Aug-18 Oct 2026.
- 6.8 aces and 4.3 double faults per match over the same 15 matches.
- 36.3% of break points converted (37/102) and 64.4% saved (65/101); 49.2% of second-serve points won.
The semifinal designation places this match at the penultimate qualifying stage. Its Cancha 1 placement and clay listing establish the immediate tournament setting for both players. The available schedule information does not identify an asymmetric turnaround, delay, or player-specific preparation issue.
- The fixture is listed as a Guayaquil clay qualifying semifinal scheduled for 14:00 .
- The order of play places the match third on Cancha 1.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 10:09 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore match listingwww.flashscore.co · 25 Oct 2026TennisTemple order of playen.tennistemple.com · 25 Oct 2026
The listed ranking gap provides broad orientation for this qualifying semifinal. It does not establish a current-event fitness, workload, or court-condition difference between the players. Munk Mesa's structured profile does not carry a current ranking value, so the match-listing figure is retained only as fixture context.
- The fixture listing shows Mccormick ranked 656th and Munk Mesa ranked 1090th.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 10:09 · Europe/BucharestNB-Bet match listingnb-bet.com · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bernardo Munk Mesa

1.60fair 1.89

BetBugs 53% · Market 62.5%

−9.5ppshort

He has the better first-set record and game margin, while his opponent has often started slowly on clay.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
He has the stronger clay win record and better second-set numbers, with available serve data showing decent first-serve effectiveness.
- Clay record 7-8 in 15 matches.
- Set2 record 8-7; first-serve points won 73.1% on clay.
- Recent losses came against players ranked 742, 680 and 663.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTristan MccormickEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined clay average is below 23.5, and recent totals have mostly stayed under the line.
- Home clay matches average 22.7 total games; away average 23.6.
- Home's last six clay matches average 21.8 total games; away's last six average 22.3.
- Both players have more straight-set than three-set clay results.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 23.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' clay matches have finished in straight sets more often than not, and their average sets are below 2.5.
- Home went three sets in 6 of 13 clay matches; away in 6 of 15.
- Average sets per match: 2.46 for home, 2.40 for away.
- SetBetting splits give 57% chance of a straight-set finish.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
He has a winning second-set record and a positive game margin on clay.
- Home set2 record 5-8 on clay, games 4.0-5.0.
- Away set2 record 8-7, games 4.87-4.53.
- Home has no set2 tiebreaks in 13 matches; away has one in 15.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonTristan MccormickEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
He has the better first-set record and game margin, while his opponent has often started slowly on clay.
- Home set1 record 7-6 on clay, games 4.77-4.62.
- Away set1 record 6-9, games 4.93-5.53.
- Home has two set1 tiebreaks in 13 matches; away has three in 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBernardo Munk MesaEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their clay matches have not featured a tiebreak, and both have low combined tiebreak frequency.
- Home had a tiebreak in 3 of 13 clay matches; away in 3 of 15.
- Combined tiebreak rate 6 of 28 matches.
- Set1 tiebreaks: home 2, away 3.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance76%

Bernardo Munk Mesa

6W 9L

6-4 6-3#399Mateus Alves

6-3 7-5#118Hugo Dellien

6-2 6-2#188Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-1 2-6 6-4#394Hernan Casanova

6-4 6-3#567Bruno Fernandez

6-7(6) 6-4 6-2#701Oscar Jose Gutierrez

3-6 6-0 7-6(2)—Mario Arce Fernandez

6-2 4-6 6-1#383Ryan Nijboer

6-7(4) 6-2 6-3—Juan Ignacio Gallego

4-6 6-2 5-2 ret.#780Carles Cordoba

6-2 7-5#546Pedro Vives Marcos

6-4 6-4#807Michiel De Krom

2-6 6-1 6-3#429Sergi Perez Contri

6-3 6-2#535Yanaki Milev

7-6(2) 6-0#246Philip Henning

Tristan Mccormick

7W 8L

6-1 6-4#742Jose Pereira

6-3 7-5#680Juan Sebastian Osorio

7-6(3) 7-6(4)—Alberto Alvarado Berrospi

6-4 6-2—Dakotah Bobo

6-4 6-3#663Lucas Andrade Da Silva

6-7(4) 7-5 6-2—Victor Bini

6-7(3) 6-4 7-6(6)#507Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-4 3-6 6-4#1419Sergio Luis Hernandez Ramirez

6-3 6-1#994Tyler Mercier

6-4 6-2#458Garrett Johns

6-3 1-6 6-3#898Marcello Serafini

6-4 2-6 6-3—Xavi Palomar

6-4 6-4—Carlos Giraldi

7-5 6-2#891Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa

5-7 6-4 6-1#614Yaroslav Demin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

BMBernardo Munk MesaMesa

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Tristan MccormickMccormickTM

Tristan Mccormick carries the stronger recent form — Bernardo Munk Mesa's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In60.0%+2.6pp57.4%

1st Serve Won65.6%+7.5pp73.1%

2nd Serve Won48.5%—49.2%

Aces / Match4.4+2.46.8

Double Faults / Match4.5—4.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.6%+1.4pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.0%+9.7pp36.3%

Break Pts Saved58.0%+6.4pp64.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+0.9pp49.7%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

60.0%1st Serve In+2.6pp57.4%

65.6%1st Serve Won+7.5pp73.1%

48.5%2nd Serve Won—49.2%

4.4Aces / Match+2.46.8

4.5Double Faults / Match—4.3

Return · 1–0

38.6%Return Pts Won+1.4pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

46.0%Break Pts Converted+9.7pp36.3%

58.0%Break Pts Saved+6.4pp64.4%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+0.9pp49.7%