ItalyWTA CourmayeurFinished

Yelyzaveta Kotliar #363Ukraine2Alja Senica #6450

Sets 6-4 · 7-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 12:05Q3I.hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYelyzaveta Kotliar · 282 places

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Ukraine

Kotliar, 19, is right-handed. Her career-best singles ranking of No. 356 came in August 2026.

Current ranking: #363
Peak ranking: #356 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Massimo Giunta

Italian right-hander born 9 July 2004. No reliable current injury, withdrawal, comeback, or Todi-specific workload report was located in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #645
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Kotliar is the higher-ranked player and the likelier winner, but at 1.22 to win she is priced as though the gap to Senica were wider than seven hard-court matches show.

The prices that offer something sit elsewhere: Senica at 4.25 to win, three sets at 3.0 and Senica at 3.5 to take the opening set. Kotliar at 1.25 for the first set and a straight-sets finish at 1.30 ask too much as well.

Context

Qualifying-round tennis with no off-court news available. Kotliar's hard-court sample covers seven completed matches and Senica's only two, so the read rests on ranking, recent scorelines and how each has started sets.

Kotliar's October hard-court work has been front-loaded, with her cleanest tennis coming in the opening set.
Her 7-6 record across 13 tracked matches includes this 10-15 games defeat to a player ranked 170 places below her. She still won five of seven opening sets on hard courts in the same window, so the early phase has held up. The closing sets, at 3-4, are where the record thins.
- Kotliar lost 6-3 3-6 1-6 to Kayo Nishimura (ranked 533) on 23 October 2026 on hard court.
- Games: 10 won, 15 lost. It is her most recent completed match in the tracked sample.
It is the only hard-court win in her tracked sample, and it arrived 14 days after a 1-6 1-6 defeat by Lea Boskovic.
Two tiebreak sets won and one lost to nil, in 32 games, show how much her level moves inside a single match. It is her only hard-court win in the tracked sample and it came the day before this qualifying round. Two hard-court matches in total is too little to call a trend, but the scoreline is why this is not a straightforward mismatch.
- Senica beat Tayisiya Morderger (ranked 894) 7-6 0-6 7-6 on 25 October 2026 on indoor hard court.
- She won 14 games and lost 18 across the three sets.
Kotliar's hard-court sets have mostly been settled inside the standard 6-4 or 6-3 range rather than stretching to a tiebreak.
She won five of seven opening sets by an average of 5.6 games to 3.6, then slipped to 3-4 in second sets with a 4.7 to 4.6 game split. Two of the seven matches went to a third set. The shape is a strong start and a much tighter finish, across a sample running from 6 to 23 October.
- Kotliar's hard-court set evidence covers 7 completed matches from 6 to 23 October 2026, with 2 retirements excluded.
- Set 1: 5 wins, 2 losses, averaging 5.6 games won and 3.6 lost. Set 2: 3 wins, 4 losses, 4.7 won and 4.6 lost.
- No tiebreaks across the seven matches; 20.9 total games and 2.3 sets per match on average.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kotliar has more hard-court wins and a stronger first-set record, while Senica's two hard matches include a 2-12 loss.
- Kotliar is ranked 363; Senica is ranked 645.
- Kotliar is 4-3 on hard courts in the tracked sample; Senica is 1-1.
- Kotliar has won 5 of 7 hard-court first sets.
- Senica has won only 34.8% of games on the current hard-court sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerYelyzaveta KotliarEstimated chance63%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Senica's second sets have been short and low-scoring.
- Kotliar's hard-court second sets average 9.3 total games.
- Senica's hard-court second sets average 6.5 total games.
- Senica lost both tracked hard-court second sets 0-6 and 1-6.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kotliar's first sets have generally been short despite Senica's one long opening set.
- Kotliar's hard-court first sets average 9.1 total games.
- Senica's hard-court first sets average 10.0 total games.
- Kotliar has no first-set tiebreaks in seven hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kotliar has started strongly on hard courts and holds the better first-set record.
- Kotliar has won 5 of 7 hard-court first sets.
- Senica has won 1 of 2 hard-court first sets.
- Kotliar averages 5.6 first-set games won to 3.6 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerYelyzaveta KotliarEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Senica's second sets have been much weaker, though Kotliar's own second-set record is only 3-4.
- Kotliar is 3-4 in hard-court second sets.
- Senica is 0-2 in hard-court second sets.
- Senica averages only 0.5 games won in hard-court second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerYelyzaveta KotliarEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotliar's sample contains more straight-set finishes than three-set finishes.
- Kotliar has three 2-0 wins in seven hard-court matches.
- Senica has one straight-set loss in two hard-court matches.
- The setBetting distribution puts straight-set outcomes at 54%.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The available hard-court results mostly avoid tiebreak sets.
- Kotliar has no tiebreaks in seven hard-court matches.
- Senica has one tiebreak in two hard-court matches.
- The combined hard-court sample has one tiebreak in nine matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance70%

Prediction history

Yelyzaveta Kotliar: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Yelyzaveta Kotliar matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Yelyzaveta Kotliar4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

13 Jul·WTA Rome

#451Yelyzaveta Kotliar0-2#287Federica Urgesi

BetBugsYelyzaveta Kotliar to win·58%

Missed

13 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#451Yelyzaveta Kotliar0-2#287Federica Urgesi

Yelyzaveta Kotliar to win

58%probability

Federica Urgesi won

Missed

12 Jul·WTA Rome

#401Amandine Hesse1-2#451Yelyzaveta Kotliar

BetBugsYelyzaveta Kotliar to win·58%

Matched

12 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#401Amandine Hesse1-2#451Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Yelyzaveta Kotliar to win

58%probability

Yelyzaveta Kotliar won

Matched

6 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

—Liv Boulard0-2#451Yelyzaveta Kotliar

BetBugsYelyzaveta Kotliar to win·62%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

—Liv Boulard0-2#451Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Yelyzaveta Kotliar to win

62%probability

Yelyzaveta Kotliar won

Matched

5 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#894Tayisiya Morderger1-2#451Yelyzaveta Kotliar

BetBugsYelyzaveta Kotliar to win·78%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#894Tayisiya Morderger1-2#451Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Yelyzaveta Kotliar to win

78%probability

Yelyzaveta Kotliar won

Matched

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

8W 7L

3-6 6-3 6-1#533Kayo Nishimura

6-0 4-6 6-4#630Masha Lazarenko

6-1 6-1—Antonina Sushkova

6-3 6-3—Ada Kumru

7-5 6-4#490Celia Cervino Ruiz

7-5 6-2#721Arina Arifullina

5-0 ret.#598Kateryna Lazarenko

6-3 7-5—Elizabeth Jurna

5-2 ret.#899Elsa Bonelli

6-0 6-1#250Joelle Steur

6-1 6-2#231Xinyu Gao

3-6 6-3 6-2#489Pia Lovric

4-6 6-2 7-5#172Anna Siskova

6-1 6-3#443Laura Mair

6-7(6) 7-6(5) 6-1#602Daria Kuczer

Alja Senica

8W 7L

7-6(4) 0-6 7-6(8)#894Tayisiya Morderger

6-1 6-1#298Lea Boskovic

6-4 3-6 6-3—Luca Kalman

4-6 6-4 6-3#536Enola Chiesa

5-7 6-3 6-3#99Francesca Jones

4-6 6-3 6-3#510Sofia Shapatava

6-3 6-4—Karolina Mrazikova

7-5 6-2—Melinda Biro

6-1 6-4—Klara Blazkova

6-4 4-6 7-5#808Maria Andrienko

3-6 6-3 10-8#782Unknown Player

6-0 3-6 10-7—Veronika Kulhava

6-4 5-7 6-3#809Sara Mikaca

7-5 6-2#801Stefania Bojica

6-3 7-5#789Federica Trevisan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YKYelyzaveta KotliarKotliar

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Alja SenicaSenicaAS

Alja Senica carries the stronger recent form — Yelyzaveta Kotliar's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.3%+4.1pp63.4%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1555.2%+0.8pp56.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1543.4%+3.0pp46.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/150.3+1.11.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.81.2 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.6%+3.2pp47.4%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1555.5%+2.4pp53.1%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1553.6%+4.3pp49.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.5%—50.0%

Serve · 0–5

59.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+4.1pp63.4%

55.2%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp56.0%

43.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.0pp46.4%

0.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.11.4

5.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.2 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

50.6%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+3.2pp47.4%

Pressure · 2–0

55.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+2.4pp53.1%

53.6%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp49.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—50.0%

Yelyzaveta Kotliar #363Ukraine2Alja Senica #6450

Player Profiles

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Massimo Giunta

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Alja Senica

Alja Senica

Yelyzaveta Kotliar 2-0

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 0 landed

Games0 of 0 landed

Sets0 of 0 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Yelyzaveta Kotliar: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Alja Senica

Stat Battle