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Predictions graded

Yelyzaveta Kotliar #451Ukraine0Federica Urgesi #287Italy2

Sets 3-6 · 0-6Mon 13 Jul 2026, 18:52 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFederica Urgesi · 164 places

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Ukraine

Teenage Ukrainian currently ranked No. 451, with the WTA site listing a career high of No. 440. Public profiles list her as right-handed; no explicit preferred-surface listing surfaced in the required search set.

Current ranking: #451
Peak ranking: #440
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Federica Urgesi

Italy

Italian 21-year-old with structured current ranking No. 287 and a WTA-listed career high of No. 285. Public profiles list her as right-handed, but no explicit preferred-surface listing surfaced in the required search set.

Current ranking: #287
Peak ranking: #285
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jul 2026, 09:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Kotliar's dominant clay form (87-14 in 2026) and superior career win rate give her a clear edge over Urgesi, despite the Italian's home advantage.

Betting value lies in Kotliar to win at 2.60 and over 20.5 total games at 1.80, while the -3.5 game handicap should be avoided due to Kotliar's narrow winning margins.

Context

Kotliar’s 2026 clay record is 26-14, with an overall 87-14 clay mark across her career.
- Urgesi’s 2026 clay record is 10-7, and her career clay win rate is 66-43.
- Kotliar’s career win percentage on clay is 86%, compared to Urgesi’s 61%.
Kotliar beat Hesse 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 on July 12 in the previous round of this tournament.
- Urgesi lost to Arantxa Rus 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 on July 9 in a different event.
- Kotliar has played 46 matches in 2026, showing strong competitive rhythm.
Urgesi lost to Arantxa Rus (rank 183), Katerina Tsygourova (rank 461), and Berfu Cengiz (rank 355) in recent weeks.
- Kotliar’s recent losses include Oksana Selekhmeteva (rank 88) and Teodora Kostovic (rank 159).
- Urgesi’s win over Maja Chwalinska (rank 22) came via retirement, not a full match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Kotliar's superior clay-court record and better recent form give her a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.
- Kotliar has a 61.1% career win rate vs Urgesi's 52.5%.
- Kotliar's clay win rate is 87-14 in 2026, Urgesi is 10-7 on clay in 2026.
- Kotliar's recent form: 3-2 in last 5, including a win over Hesse (rank 404) yesterday.
- Urgesi lost to Rus (rank 183) in her last match, and has a 2-3 record in last 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYelyzaveta KotliarEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players frequently engage in extended matches, pushing the total games over 20.5 in a Bo3 format.
- Kotliar's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games.
- Urgesi's last 5 matches averaged 20.4 total games.
- Both players have a high rate of three-set matches: Kotliar 40% (6/15), Urgesi 33% (5/15) in recent form window.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players have been competitive, often reaching 10 or more games.
- Kotliar's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games.
- Urgesi's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games.
- In 4 of Kotliar's last 5 matches, the first set had at least 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been closely contested in recent matches for both players, favoring over 9.5 games.
- Kotliar's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games.
- Urgesi's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games.
- In 3 of Kotliar's last 5 matches, the second set had at least 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kotliar's high first-set win conversion and recent trend of starting strong suggest a slight edge in set 1.
- Kotliar's first-set win conversion rate is 87%, Urgesi's is 82%.
- Kotliar won the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches.
- Urgesi lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYelyzaveta KotliarEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, making under 5.5 total aces highly likely.
- Kotliar's ace rate is 0.5%, averaging ~0.3 aces per match.
- Urgesi's ace rate is 2.3%, averaging ~1.5 aces per match.
- Combined, they average fewer than 2 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kotliar's high double fault rate, combined with Urgesi's moderate rate, pushes the total over 7.5.
- Kotliar's double fault rate is 7.3%, averaging ~5.5 per match.
- Urgesi's double fault rate is 4.6%, averaging ~3.5 per match.
- Combined, they average around 9 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

7W 8L

6-3 5-7 6-3#404Amandine Hesse

6-4 6-4#88Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-4 6-3—Liv Boulard

3-6 6-3 6-0#894Tayisiya Morderger

5-7 6-2 6-4#213Jennifer Ruggeri

7-6(2) 6-4#427Maria Sara Popa

7-6(4) 6-2#159Teodora Kostovic

2-0 ret.#765Julia Stamatova

7-5 7-5#829Laetitia Pulchartova

5-7 6-2 7-6(1)#45Petra Marcinko

2-6 6-3 6-4#123Francesca Jones

7-6(4) 4-6 6-4#658Linea Bajraliu

1-6 7-5 6-2#367Carlota Martinez Cirez

6-1 6-2#442Sapfo Sakellaridi

7-5 6-4#602Pia Lovric

Federica Urgesi

9W 6L

4-6 6-2 6-1#183Arantxa Rus

6-4 6-1#393Lucija Ciric Bagaric

6-4 1-6 6-2#461Katerina Tsygourova

7-5 6-0#148Tamara Zidansek

6-4 3-6 6-1#387Alessandra Mazzola

6-4 6-2#354Deborah Chiesa

6-0 6-2#684Marta Lombardini

6-0 3-6 6-3#328Gabriela Ce

6-4 6-7(6) 6-2#285Vivian Wolff

6-2 6-3#47Viktorija Golubic

6-3 ret.#22Maja Chwalinska

6-1 6-1#47Viktorija Golubic

6-4 6-1#105Veronika Erjavec

6-4 2-6 6-3#83Renata Zarazua

6-2 6-4#355Berfu Cengiz