SwitzerlandATP BaselFinished

Predictions graded

Rinky Hijikata #86Australia1Yannick Hanfmann #59Germany2

Sets 4-6 · 6-1 · 3-6Sun 25 Oct 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedQ3I.hard

Predictions5–363%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYannick Hanfmann · 27 places

Rinky Hijikata

Australia

Hijikata reached his career-high singles ranking of No. 62 on 26 August 2024. Official ITF profile data lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #86
Peak ranking: #62 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Yannick Hanfmann

Germany

Reached a career-high No. 45 on 3 July 2023. ATP describes him as enjoying all surfaces rather than identifying one preferred surface.

Current ranking: #59
Peak ranking: #45 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 20:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Hanfmann's serve against Hijikata's return, with a main-draw place at Basel at stake.

Hanfmann's 71.9% first-serve points won and 10.7 aces per hard-court match make him the marginal favourite, and a straight-set finish is the likelier shape, though Hijikata's five-set comeback in their only meeting is the warning. No quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

Hanfmann's serve is the clearest single advantage either player brings into this qualifying round.
The 15-match sample puts his first-serve points won at 73.1%, with 10.2 aces per match adding cheap games. Those are the kind of free points that decide tight sets, and this fixture projects as tight. It tilts the match his way without settling it, since the same sample also shows a modest 41% conversion of break points.
- Hanfmann won 73.1% of first-serve points (522 of 714) across his last 15 tracked matches.
- He averaged 10.2 aces per match over those 15 matches.
The sample covers 14 completed best-of-three hard-court matches with retirements excluded, and only two went the distance. His own split is unforgiving: seven 0-2 defeats against five 2-0 wins, and an average of just 21.6 games per match. That points to a short contest here, though his five-set comeback against Hanfmann in 2023 is the obvious caution against treating it as a rule.
- Hijikata's 14 completed hard-court matches from 2 August to 24 October 2026 produced five 2-0 wins, seven 0-2 defeats and two 2-1 results.
- Those matches averaged 21.6 total games.
Their only meeting was a five-set hard-court match at the 2023 Australian Open, lasting 266 minutes. It supplies the clearest direct-match reference available for this fixture. That contest was nearly four years earlier, so it does not establish either player's current condition or level.
- Hijikata overturned a two-set deficit in their Australian Open meeting on 16 January 2023.
ReportedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:48 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 24 Oct 2026
Hanfmann arrives with no Basel main-draw win from his previous appearances in 2023 and 2024. That gives useful event-specific context to a qualifying fixture at this venue. The record does not identify a current physical issue or a specific court-condition cause.
- Hanfmann's two previous Basel appearances ended in the 2023 main-draw first round and 2024 qualifying.
ReportedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:48 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 24 Oct 2026

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hanfmann's serve gives him a small scoring advantage in an otherwise balanced matchup.
- Hanfmann 71.9% first-serve points won on hard vs Hijikata 68.8%
- Hanfmann saved 55.2% of break points on hard; Hijikata 50.6%
- Hijikata 57.8% first serves in and 4.3 aces per match
- Hanfmann ranked 59, Hijikata 86
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYannick HanfmannEstimated chance53%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets average more than ten games, with tiebreaks frequent enough to push past 9.5.
- Hijikata set1 average 10.3 total games
- Hanfmann set1 average 10.7 total games
- Hijikata 4 tiebreak first sets in 14; Hanfmann 4 in 10
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hijikata's recent matches are short enough to tilt the combined expectation slightly below the line.
- Hijikata total games average 21.6 on hard
- Hanfmann total games average 25.3 on hard
- Hijikata 5 of 14 matches were decided 2-0 with few games
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent completed hard-court matches have tended to finish inside two sets.
- Hijikata's hard-court scorelines: 12 of 14 ended 2-0 or 0-2
- Hanfmann's hard-court scorelines: 6 of 10 ended 2-0 or 0-2
- Combined three-set rate across both samples is roughly 25%
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hanfmann's serve gives him the better chance of an early break in the opening set.
- Hanfmann set1 record 4-6 on hard
- Hijikata set1 record 5-9 on hard, conceding 5.64 games per opening set
- Hanfmann 71.9% first-serve points won on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYannick HanfmannEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hijikata is the more solid second-set performer in the available samples.
- Hijikata set2 record 7-7 on hard
- Hanfmann set2 record 4-6 on hard, conceding 5.9 games per second set
- Hijikata 35.7% return points won
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonRinky HijikataEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly more than half of each player's recent hard matches finished without a tiebreak.
- Hijikata 7 of 14 hard matches had no tiebreak
- Hanfmann 6 of 10 hard matches had no tiebreak
- Hijikata average 2.14 sets per match
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double-fault at a steady rate, and together they edge past the line.
- Hanfmann 3.4 double faults per hard match
- Hijikata 2.5 double faults per match
- Combined expectation roughly 6 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hanfmann's heavy serving alone covers most of the line, with Hijikata adding a few.
- Hanfmann 10.7 aces per hard match
- Hijikata 4.3 aces per match
- Combined recent average sits around 15 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 14.5Estimated chance53%

Prediction history

Yannick Hanfmann: 6/8 recent winner projections matched

6 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Yannick Hanfmann matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Yannick Hanfmann8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

20 Jul·ATP Kitzbuhel

#162Lukas Neumayer0-2#51Yannick Hanfmann

BetBugsYannick Hanfmann to win·65%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

ATP Kitzbuhel

#162Lukas Neumayer0-2#51Yannick Hanfmann

Yannick Hanfmann to win

65%probability

Yannick Hanfmann won

Matched

14 Jul·ATP Gstaad

#157Pedro Martinez0-2#51Yannick Hanfmann

BetBugsYannick Hanfmann to win·65%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

ATP Gstaad

#157Pedro Martinez0-2#51Yannick Hanfmann

Yannick Hanfmann to win

65%probability

Yannick Hanfmann won

Matched

21 Jun·ATP Mallorca

#59Yannick Hanfmann2-0#71Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

BetBugsYannick Hanfmann to win·65%

Matched

21 Jun 2026

ATP Mallorca

#59Yannick Hanfmann2-0#71Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Yannick Hanfmann to win

65%probability

Yannick Hanfmann won

Matched

10 Jun·ATP Stuttgart

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#59Yannick Hanfmann

BetBugsYannick Hanfmann to win·58%

Missed

10 Jun 2026

ATP Stuttgart

#78Mattia Bellucci2-1#59Yannick Hanfmann

Yannick Hanfmann to win

58%probability

Mattia Bellucci won

Missed

9 Jun·ATP Stuttgart

#53Yannick Hanfmann2-0#67Aleksandar Kovacevic

BetBugsYannick Hanfmann to win·58%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

ATP Stuttgart

#53Yannick Hanfmann2-0#67Aleksandar Kovacevic

Yannick Hanfmann to win

58%probability

Yannick Hanfmann won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W4-6 4-6 6-3 7-6(5) 6-3Rinky Hijikata#86vYannick Hanfmann#59Jan 16, 2023

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Rinky Hijikata

7W 8L

7-6(5) 6-3#57Miomir Kecmanovic

7-6(5) 6-2#98Terence Atmane

7-5 6-3#70Roman Safiullin

6-4 6-3#39Stefanos Tsitsipas

6-2 6-3#75Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 6-3#22Andrey Rublev

7-6(4) 6-4#119Dalibor Svrcina

7-5 4-6 6-3 7-5#7Felix Auger Aliassime

6-1 6-1#100Benjamin Bonzi

3-6 7-6(7) 7-6(5)#55Raphael Collignon

6-4 7-6(2)#159Darwin Blanch

6-3 6-4#16Jakub Mensik

6-4 6-2#23Luciano Darderi

2-6 7-6(5) 6-3#254Gael Monfils

7-6(3) 6-3#51Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

Yannick Hanfmann

8W 7L

6-2 5-7 6-4#88Marcos Giron

7-5 6-3#107Martin Damm

6-4 6-4#9Frances Tiafoe

6-7(4) 7-6(3) 7-6(7)#78Kamil Majchrzak

7-6(7) 6-7(6) 6-4#72Tomas Machac

6-3 6-2 6-7(7) 6-3#31Alejandro Tabilo

7-6(5) 6-1#10Arthur Fils

6-2 6-4#48Luca Van Assche

6-4 6-2#52Nuno Borges

7-6(5) 7-6(2)#6Flavio Cobolli

6-1 4-6 6-2#100Benjamin Bonzi

6-4 7-6(2)#46Quentin Halys

6-3 6-1#49Sebastian Baez

6-4 7-6(2)#90Marco Trungelliti

7-6(5) 6-4#168Lukas Neumayer

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RHRinky HijikataHijikata

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Yannick HanfmannHanfmannYH

Yannick Hanfmann carries the stronger recent form — Rinky Hijikata's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In57.8%+2.6pp60.4%

1st Serve Won68.8%+4.3pp73.1%

2nd Serve Won52.3%+1.1pp51.2%

Aces / Match4.3+5.910.2

Double Faults / Match2.50.3 fewer2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won35.7%—35.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted45.1%+4.1pp41.0%

Break Pts Saved50.6%+8.9pp59.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.6%+1.0pp49.6%

Serve · 2–3

57.8%1st Serve In+2.6pp60.4%

68.8%1st Serve Won+4.3pp73.1%

52.3%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp51.2%

4.3Aces / Match+5.910.2

2.5Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer2.8

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.7%Return Pts Won—35.0%

Pressure · 1–1

45.1%Break Pts Converted+4.1pp41.0%

50.6%Break Pts Saved+8.9pp59.5%

Points · 0–1

48.6%Total Pts Won+1.0pp49.6%